2026-03-29 10:03:47 UTC / 路透社
作者：史蒂夫·霍兰与南迪塔·博斯
2026年3月29日 美国东部时间上午10:03 更新于58分钟前
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2026年1月9日，美国华盛顿白宫，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与石油行业高管会面时回答记者提问，副总统JD·万斯和国务卿马可·卢比奥在一旁聆听。路透社/凯文·拉马克 摄 购买授权许可，打开新标签页
摘要
万斯对美国军事介入持谨慎态度，卢比奥与特朗普鹰派立场保持一致
- 伊朗战争与燃油价格上涨导致特朗普支持率下滑
- 特朗普考虑将万斯与卢比奥作为潜在继任者
华盛顿，3月29日（路透社）——随着伊朗战争威胁到唐纳德·特朗普总统的政治遗产，他的两位核心副手——副总统JD·万斯和国务卿马可·卢比奥所面临的政治风险也在上升。
这两位被广泛视为特朗普潜在继任者的人物，被推入了仍在推进中的结束战争谈判，而此时共和党早已在谋划特朗普之后的未来。
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万斯采取了谨慎态度，反映出他对美国长期军事介入的怀疑；而卢比奥则与特朗普的鹰派立场紧密绑定，成为本届政府中对此次军事行动最直言不讳的捍卫者之一。
特朗普曾表示，两人都参与了迫使伊朗接受美国要求的谈判，包括伊朗放弃其核与弹道导弹项目，并允许霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输自由通行。
随着2028年下一届总统大选临近，且宪法任期限制令特朗普无法再次参选，这位总统已在私下向盟友和顾问征询接班人问题，据两位了解他想法的人士透露，他会问“JD还是Marco？”。
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政治分析师与共和党官员表示，这场已进入第五周的美国军事行动的结果，将决定这两位候选人2028年的竞选前景。若战争快速结束且对美国有利，可能会提振卢比奥的选情——他同时担任特朗普的国家安全顾问，会被视为危机中的可靠掌舵人。而若冲突长期化，则会给万斯留出空间，让他可以辩称自己反映了特朗普选民基础的反战倾向，同时又不公开与总统决裂。
特朗普本人的处境也岌岌可危。路透社/益普索上周完成的一项为期四天的民调显示，受燃油价格飙升和民众普遍反对伊朗战争的影响，特朗普的支持率近期跌至36%，这是他重返白宫以来的最低水平。
一些共和党人表示，他们正密切关注特朗普在伊朗冲突升级期间更青睐哪位高级助手。一些人发现特朗普似乎倾向于卢比奥，但也指出他可能会迅速改变主意。
“所有人都在观察特朗普对卢比奥流露的肢体语言，却看不到对万斯的同样态度，”一位与白宫关系密切的共和党人士说道。
白宫驳斥了特朗普正在传递偏好信号的说法。
“无论媒体如何疯狂猜测副总统万斯与国务卿卢比奥，都不会动摇本届政府为美国人民而战的使命，”发言人史蒂文·张说道。
从特朗普对手到潜在继任者
现年41岁的万斯曾是海军陆战队队员，在伊拉克服役过，长期以来一直反对美国卷入外国战争。他对伊朗的公开言论有限且经过审慎考量，特朗普也曾指出两人在这场冲突上存在“理念分歧”。
万斯曾自称“永不支持特朗普者”，2023年他在《华尔街日报》发表评论文章称，特朗普在2017至2021年的第一个总统任期内，最好的外交政策就是没有发动任何战争。
白宫淡化了总统与副总统之间的任何裂痕。本月早些时候在椭圆形办公室与特朗普一同亮相时，万斯表示他支持特朗普对战争的处理方式，并同意伊朗不应拥有核武器的立场。
一位知情人士透露，如果特朗普的特使史蒂夫·维特科夫夫与女婿贾里德·库什纳取得足够进展，万斯可能会在谈判中承担更直接的角色。
“副总统万斯为能成为高效团队的一员而自豪，在特朗普总统大胆的领导下，我们在让美国更安全、更繁荣、更强大方面取得了令人难以置信的成就，”万斯的一位女发言人说道。
一位资深白宫官员（与本文其他匿名消息人士一样，因需自由讨论敏感话题而获准匿名）表示，只要助手保持忠诚，特朗普就能容忍意识形态分歧，并补充称万斯的怀疑立场帮助特朗普了解了其选民基础的部分立场。
一位了解万斯想法的人士告诉路透社，这位副总统将等到11月中期选举结束后，再决定是否参加2028年总统竞选。
现年54岁的卢比奥曾表示，如果万斯参选，他将不会竞选总统；而熟悉卢比奥想法的消息人士称，他会乐于担任万斯的竞选搭档。
但任何被视为万斯的弱点，都可能鼓励卢比奥和其他有意参选的共和党人。
“特朗普记性很好，”共和党策略师罗恩·邦让说道。“他可能会指责万斯缺乏忠诚度。如果特朗普仍在MAGA基础选民中保持受欢迎度，那么万斯将因未能获得总统背书而受损。”
特朗普曾提出让万斯与卢比奥搭档参选的想法，称他们将难以被击败。
“特朗普不想钦定任何人，”那位资深白宫官员说道。
路透社/益普索3月的民调显示，79%的共和党人对万斯持正面看法，19%持负面看法；约71%的人对卢比奥持正面看法，15%持负面看法。
相比之下，79%的共和党人对特朗普持正面看法，20%持负面看法。
卢比奥2016年的总统抱负在与特朗普的激烈对抗中破灭，此后他早已放下了与总统的任何摩擦。
国务院发言人汤米·皮戈特表示，卢比奥与特朗普团队“在职业与私人层面都关系良好”。
卢比奥曾暗示是以色列将美国拖入了战争，这一言论激怒了特朗普的一些保守派支持者，迫使白宫与他一同进行危机公关。但在那之后的几周里，特朗普一直称赞卢比奥的工作。
当被问及卢比奥是否担心长期战争可能损害其政治前途时，一位高级国务院官员表示：“他从未花一秒钟思考过这个问题。”
公开显露的分歧
美国保守政治行动会议（CPAC）负责人、保守派领袖马特·施拉普表示，伊朗军事行动将产生重大政治影响。
“如果人们认为这场行动成功达成了目标……我认为做了正确事情的人将在政治上获得回报，”施拉普说道。“如果战争持续下去……我认为政治形势会很艰难。”
路透社/益普索的民调显示，共和党人总体上仍支持美国对伊朗的军事打击，75%的共和党人表示赞成，而民主党人仅为6%，无党派人士为24%。
在周四的电视内阁会议上，卢比奥与万斯之间的反差一目了然。
卢比奥全力为特朗普对伊朗的打击行动辩护。“他不会让这样的危险继续存在，”这位国务卿说道。
万斯则更为克制，重点讨论了剥夺伊朗核武器能力的选项。发言结束时，他为海湾地区的基督徒和美军送上了复活节与圣周的祝福。
“我们会继续支持你们，”他对军人说道，“会全程与你们同在，给予你们支持。”
路透社记者史蒂夫·霍兰、南迪塔·博斯报道；内森·莱恩、博·埃里克森、乌梅拉·帕穆克补充报道；科琳·詹金斯、阿利斯泰尔·贝尔编辑
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‘JD or Marco?’: Iran war raises 2028 stakes as Trump weighs Vance vs. Rubio
2026-03-29 10:03:47 UTC / Reuters
By Steve Holland and Nandita Bose
March 29, 2026 10:03 AM UTC Updated 58 mins ago
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U.S. President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters while Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio look on, as they attend a meeting with oil industry executives, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Summary
Vance cautious on U.S. military involvement, Rubio aligns with Trump’s hawkish stance
- Trump’s approval rating drops amid Iran war and rising fuel prices
- Trump weighs Vance and Rubio as potential successors
WASHINGTON, March 29 (Reuters) – As the war in Iran threatens to imperil President Donald Trump’s legacy, the political stakes also are rising for two of his top lieutenants: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The pair, widely viewed as potential successors to Trump, have been thrust into still-developing negotiations to end the war at a moment when the Republican Party is already weighing its post-Trump future.
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Vance has taken a cautious approach, reflecting his skepticism toward prolonged U.S. military involvement, while Rubio has aligned himself closely with Trump’s hawkish stance and emerged as one of the administration’s most vocal defenders of the campaign.
Trump has said both men were involved in efforts to force Iran to accept U.S. demands to dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and allow oil traffic to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
With the next presidential election due in 2028 and term limits barring Trump from running again, the president has been putting the succession question to allies and advisers in private, asking “JD or Marco?,”, two people familiar with his views said.
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The outcome of the U.S. military operation now in its fifth week could shape the two men’s 2028 prospects, political analysts and Republican officials said. A swift end to the war that favors the U.S. might bolster Rubio, who also serves as Trump’s national security adviser and could be seen as a steady hand during a crisis. A prolonged conflict could give Vance space to argue he reflected the anti-war instincts of Trump’s base without openly breaking with the president.
Trump’s own standing is also at stake. His approval rating fell in recent days to 36%, its lowest point since he returned to the White House, hit by a surge in fuel prices and widespread disapproval of the Iran war, a four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll completed last week found.
Some Republicans say they are watching closely for which senior aide Trump appears to favor as the Iran conflict unfolds. Some see signs of Trump leaning toward Rubio but note he could change his mind quickly.
“Everyone is watching the body language that Trump makes on Rubio and not seeing the same on Vance,” a Republican with close ties to the White House said.
The White House rejected the idea that Trump is signaling a preference.
“No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this administration’s mission of fighting for the American people,” spokesman Steven Cheung said.
FROM TRUMP RIVALS TO LIKELY HEIRS
Vance, 41, a former Marine who served in Iraq, has long argued against U.S. entanglements in foreign wars. His public comments on Iran have been limited and calibrated, and Trump has noted the two have “philosophical differences” on the conflict.
Once a self-described “never-Trumper,” Vance wrote an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal in 2023 saying Trump’s best foreign policy was not starting any wars during his first four years in office between 2017 and 2021.
The White House has downplayed any rift between the president and vice president. Standing alongside Trump in the Oval Office earlier this month, Vance said he supported Trump’s handling of the war and agreed with him that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon.
Vance could take on a more direct role in negotiations if Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner make sufficient progress, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
“Vice President Vance is proud to be a part of a highly effective team that, under President Trump’s bold leadership, has had incredible success in making America safer, more secure and more prosperous,” a Vance spokeswoman said.
A senior White House official, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak freely about a sensitive topic, said Trump tolerates ideological differences as long as aides remain loyal, adding that Vance’s skeptical views have helped inform Trump about where part of his voter base stands.
A person familiar with Vance’s views told Reuters the vice president will wait until after the November midterm elections before deciding on whether to run in 2028.
Rubio, 54, has said he will not run for president if Vance does, and sources familiar with Rubio’s views say he would be content as Vance’s running mate.
But any perceived vulnerability for Vance could encourage Rubio and other Republicans eyeing bids.
“Trump has a long memory,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “And he may call out Vance for his lack of allegiance. And if Trump remains popular with the MAGA base, that could hurt him by not getting the endorsement of the president.”
Trump has floated the idea of Vance and Rubio running together, suggesting they would be hard to beat.
“Trump doesn’t want to anoint anyone,” the senior White House official said.
A March Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 79% of Republicans have a favorable view of Vance, while 19% viewed him negatively. Some 71% had a positive view of Rubio, while 15% viewed him unfavorably.
In comparison, 79% of Republicans viewed Trump favorably and 20% unfavorably.
Rubio, whose 2016 presidential aspirations were snuffed out after a bitter confrontation with Trump, has long since set aside any frictions with the president.
State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said Rubio “has a great relationship, both professionally and personally” with Trump’s team.
Rubio and the White House were forced into damage control after he angered some of Trump’s conservative backers when he suggested that Israel pushed the United States into the war. But in the weeks since, Trump has praised Rubio’s efforts.
Asked whether Rubio was concerned that a protracted war might damage his political future, a senior State Department official said, “He has not spent a second thinking about this.”
DIFFERENCES ON DISPLAY
Matt Schlapp, a conservative leader who runs the Conservative Political Action Conference, said the Iran campaign will have big political consequences.
“If it is seen as successful at getting the job done…I think people will be politically rewarded for doing the right thing,” Schlapp said. “If it goes on and on and on… I think the politics are tough.”
Republicans remain broadly supportive of the U.S. military strikes against Iran, with 75% approving compared to just 6% of Democrats and 24% of independents, Reuters/Ipsos polling showed.
At a televised Cabinet meeting on Thursday, the contrast between Rubio and Vance was on display.
Rubio gave a full-throated defense of Trump’s attack on Iran. “He’s not going to leave a danger like this in place,” the secretary of state said.
Vance was more measured, focusing on options for depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon. He closed by wishing Christians and U.S. troops in the Gulf a blessed Holy Week and Easter.
“We continue to stand behind you,” he said to servicemembers, “and continue to support you every step of the way.”
Reporting by Steve Holland and Nandita Bose; additional reporting by Nathan Layne, Bo Erickson and Humeyra Pamuk; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Alistair Bell
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