2026-03-26T12:15:00-0400 / CBS新闻
作者:
梅根·塞鲁罗(Megan Cerullo)记者,MoneyWatch
梅根·塞鲁罗是总部位于纽约的CBS MoneyWatch记者,报道小型企业、职场、医疗保健、消费者支出和个人理财等主题。她经常出现在CBS新闻24/7频道讨论自己的报道。
更新时间: 2026年3月26日 / 美国东部时间下午1:45 / CBS新闻
经济学家表示,削减石油消耗可能有助于缓解伊朗战争引发的能源价格飙升,但要说服美国人减少汽油消耗可能会很困难。
国际能源署(IEA)上周发布了一份消费者节能措施清单,包括居家办公、缓慢驾驶和拼车。由于三分之二的石油消耗来自车辆,其许多建议都与减少驾驶、提高燃油经济性或使用公共交通有关。
IEA在3月20日的报告中写道:“仅靠供应方措施无法完全抵消这种规模的破坏。解决需求问题是减轻消费者压力的关键且紧迫的工具。”
对于经历过1970年代石油危机的美国人来说,这些建议可能听起来似曾相识——当时中东产油国的禁运导致汽油价格飙升,促使许多美国工人拼车以节省开支。但要说服人们改变习惯却很困难——尤其是在美国,许多地区缺乏公共交通,电动汽车通常也比燃油汽车价格更高。
波斯湾的霍尔木兹海峡是一条狭窄水道,约运送全球20%的石油,目前对大多数油轮仍处于封锁状态。许多专家表示,除非美国与伊朗达成外交协议结束战争,否则全球石油供应将在数月内耗尽。
IEA主任法提赫·比罗尔(Fatih Birol)在该政府间机构发布建议时表示:“解决这个问题最重要的单一办法是开放霍尔木兹海峡。”
牛津经济研究院的经济学家估计,该海湾水道可能要到5月才能恢复通行。届时,约有战前一半的石油运输量可能恢复。
特朗普政府也采取了措施增加石油供应,包括从美国战略石油储备(SPR)中释放1.72亿桶石油。但专家表示,仅靠这些努力不足以让市场重新平衡,使油价回落至战前水平。
说起来容易做起来难
然而,尽管在燃油价格飙升时减少能源使用可以省钱,但对许多消费者来说,这往往是说起来容易做起来难。诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)告诉CBS新闻,减少石油消耗最有效的方法是人们改变驾驶习惯——主要是减少驾驶——同时也承认实现这种转变并不容易。
克鲁格曼表示,由于许多地区缺乏公共交通,乘坐公交车等交通选择对许多美国人来说不可行。他认为,汽油价格可能需要进一步上涨,才能推动工人拼车。分析人士指出,结果是:由于几乎没有立即可替代的能源,短期内很难快速降低全国的石油需求。
摩根大通全球能源分析师娜塔莎·卡内瓦(Natasha Kaneva)在一份报告中指出:“石油需求在短期内通常高度缺乏弹性,因为大多数最终用途几乎没有立即可替代的能源——工厂锅炉依赖燃料油,飞机需要喷气燃料,而大多数汽车仍使用汽油。”
跳过通勤?
虽然期望人们完全停止驾驶可能不现实,但消费者可以改变驾驶习惯以节省燃料,例如降低行驶速度以提高燃油效率。美国汽车协会(AAA)表示,将高速公路速度降低5至10英里/小时,可使行驶里程提高14%。
克鲁格曼还提到了2020年新冠疫情期间的一个现象:美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据显示,当时居家办公的要求导致石油消耗降至25年来的最低水平。
“看看2020年石油消耗下降了多少,这在很大程度上与远程工作有关,我们现在也可以这样做。如果人们每周少通勤一天,就能节省大量通勤时间。”他说道。
国家能源援助主任协会(National Energy Assistance Directors Association)是一个能源政策组织,其执行董事、能源经济学家马克·沃尔夫(Mark Wolfe)表示,对于使用取暖油的480万个家庭,减少石油消耗的另一种方法是只将油箱加到一半。这有助于避免消耗国家的石油供应。
沃尔夫说:“只买你需要的量。通常在3月,人们可能会加满油以准备过冬,但现在我不会这样做。”
需求何时“被摧毁”?
然而,现实是,除非下游价格飙升至令人痛苦的高水平,否则消费者对石油的需求通常不会有大的变化。Rystad Energy的石油和天然气分析师马修·伯恩斯坦(Matthew Bernstein)表示,上游石油成本通常在每桶120至130美元之间。
随着伊朗战争升级的新迹象出现,国际基准布伦特原油周四上涨3.8%,达到每桶100.93美元。美国基准原油上涨3%,达到每桶93.05美元。根据这些基准,自2月28日敌对行动爆发以来,油价上涨了约40%。
伯恩斯坦表示:“如果价格高到导致经济活动减少、出行减少,这才会出现需求破坏。但我们需要看到这种情况持续一段时间才能产生影响。”
编辑:艾米·皮基(Aimee Picchi)
主题分类:
- 伊朗
- 石油和天然气
Americans face calls to cut their energy usage as Iran war drags on. Good luck with that.
2026-03-26T12:15:00-0400 / CBS News
By
Megan Cerullo Reporter, MoneyWatch
Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting.
Updated on: March 26, 2026 / 1:45 PM EDT / CBS News
Cutting oil consumption may help combat soaring energy prices caused by the Iran war, but convincing Americans to burn less gasoline could prove difficult, according to economists.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) last week released a list of energy-conserving measures for consumers, including working from home, driving more slowly and carpooling. Because two-thirds of oil is consumed by vehicles, many of its suggestions relate to driving less, improving fuel economy or using public transportation.
“Supply-side measures alone cannot fully offset the scale of the disruption,” the IEA wrote in a March 20 report. “Addressing demand is a critical and immediate tool to reduce pressure on consumers.”
The recommendations may have a familiar ring to Americans who experienced the 1970s oil crisis, when an embargo by Middle East producers caused gas prices to surge and prompted many U.S. workers to carpool to save money. But convincing people to change their habits can be difficult — especially in the U.S., where public transportation is unavailable in many regions and electric vehicles remain generally pricier than fuel-powered cars.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil, remains blocked to most tankers. Unless the U.S. brokers a diplomatic agreement with Iran ending the war, global oil supply will be depleted for months, according to many experts.
“The single most important solution to this problem is opening up the Hormuz Strait,” IEA director Fatih Birol said when the intergovernmental agency released its recommendations.
The conduit in the Gulf could remain impassable until May, economists with Oxford Economics estimated. At that point, about half of the pre-conflict volume of oil could start shipping again.
The Trump administration has also taken steps to try to boost oil supplies, including by releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve(SPR). But experts said such efforts alone won’t rebalance the market enough for prices to drop to pre-war levels.
Easier said than done
Yet while reducing energy usage can save money as fuel prices soar, for many consumers that’s often easier said than done. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman told CBS News that the most effective way to reduce oil consumption is for people to change their driving habits — primarily by driving less — while acknowledging that engineering such a shift isn’t easy.
For many Americans, transportation options such as taking the bus aren’t feasible, given that many regions lack mass transit. Gas prices might need to rise even further to push workers to carpool, Krugman said. The upshot: It’s hard to quickly reduce the nation’s oil demand because there are few immediate substitutes, analysts said.
“Oil demand is, on average, highly inelastic in the short run because most end uses have few immediate substitutes — factory boilers rely on fuel oil, aircraft require jet fuel and most cars still run on gasoline,” JPMorgan global energy analyst Natasha Kaneva noted in a report.
Skip the commute?
While it may be unrealistic to expect people to stop driving, consumers can change their driving habits to save fuel, such as reducing driving speeds to improve fuel efficiency. Reducing highway speeds by 5 to 10 mph can improve mileage by up to 14%, according to AAA.
Krugman also pointed to a phenomenon that unfolded in 2020 during the COVID pandemic, when work-from-home mandates caused oil consumption to fall to a 25-year low, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“Look at how much oil consumption fell in 2020, and a lot of it had to do with remote work, which we could do now. A lot of commuting can be saved by having people spend one less day commuting in per week,” he said.
For the 4.8 million households that use heating oil, another way to reduce oil consumption is to fill up their tanks only halfway, said Mark Wolfe, an energy economist and executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, an energy policy group. That would help avoid drawing down the nation’s oil supplies,
“Just buy as much as you need. Typically in March, people might fill it up to get ready for next winter, but I wouldn’t do that now,” Wolfe said.
When is demand “destroyed”?
The reality, however, is that consumer demand for oil typically doesn’t budge unless downstream prices shoot to painfully high levels. Typically, those upstream oil costs range between $120 to $130 a barrel, said Rystad Energy oil and gas analyst Matthew Bernstein.
A barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 3.8% on Thursday to $100.93 amid fresh signs of escalation in the Iran war. Benchmark U.S. crude climbed 3% to $93.05 per barrel. By those benchmarks, oil prices are up roughly 40% since the outbreak of hostilities on Feb. 28.
“If prices get so high that there’s less economic activity, less travel, that’s when you get demand destruction,” Bernstein said. “But we’d need to see that for a sustained period of time before it makes a difference.”
Edited by Aimee Picchi
In:
- Iran
- Oil and Gas
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