By Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood, Tal Shalev
58分钟前
发布于 2026年3月25日,美国东部时间下午6:57
大约一个月前,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府仍声称外交是其首选方案,美国特使史蒂夫·维特科夫和贾里德·库什纳在日内瓦与伊朗人进行了间接会面。两天后,美国和以色列对伊朗发动了战争。
如今,在特朗普周一突然转变立场,宣布两国正在谈判结束冲突后,美国再次寻求重返谈判桌——但尽管白宫表达了公开乐观情绪,重返谈判桌的道路上仍存在重大障碍。
多位消息人士告诉CNN,海湾和欧洲盟友正密切关注局势,并对结束冲突或甚至实施停火的谈判缺乏势头日益担忧。
尽管各方正在努力安排双方会面,但消息人士表示,鉴于两国需求之间存在巨大差距,此类会面不太可能很快举行。
美国和以色列持续军事行动的阴影在潜在讨论中挥之不去。与此同时,德黑兰认为自己拥有战争爆发前没有的关键工具:对霍尔木兹海峡的实际控制权。
“双方在登上谈判桌前必须就最基本问题达成一致,”一位地区消息人士告诉CNN,补充称伊朗现在对美国提出的“最高要求”给予了“最大程度的拒绝”。
本周早些时候,美国通过巴基斯坦向伊朗传达了一份15点要求清单。其中许多要求与战前提出的类似:伊朗承诺不发展核武器,美国接管伊朗的高浓缩铀,限制德黑兰的防御能力,以及停止伊朗对代理人的支持。
“如果这真的是美国的立场,‘就不会有成功的谈判’,”曾在国家安全委员会担任伊朗事务主任的前美国政府官员内特·斯旺森告诉CNN。
战争的另一个关键参与者以色列担心,美国可能宣布停火一个月以促进与伊朗的谈判,两位以色列消息人士告诉CNN。然而,其中一位消息人士表示,以色列对突破性进展的前景仍持怀疑态度。
“伊朗可能愿意做出的最大让步,无法满足美国要求的最低条件,”该消息人士表示,并补充称以色列认为美国框架中的几个要素“对以色列是积极且有益的”——特别是关于伊朗核计划和其地区代理人活动的内容。不过,另一位以色列消息人士称,从长远来看,以色列担心最终的停火协议不会解决其所有关切,特别是伊朗的弹道导弹计划和其在该地区的代理人活动。
斯旺森表示,伊朗可能认为特朗普采取了与之前相同的立场——要么投降要么升级——而且伊朗似乎并不重视外交前景。他说,德黑兰提出的“同样大胆且不切实际的提议”。
周三,据伊朗国家媒体Press TV报道,一名伊朗官员概述了该国自己的要求清单。这些要求包括:完全停止“侵略和暗杀”;建立确保伊朗战争不再重演的具体机制;确保战争损害赔偿和赔偿的明确支付;结束所有战线上对伊朗在该地区所有代理人的军事行动;以及确保伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的主权。
尚无可行协议迹象
尽管美国在削弱伊朗军事能力方面取得进展,但德黑兰封锁关键水道的能力导致燃料价格飙升,全球市场动荡。这也是伊朗在未来谈判中的潜在筹码,消息人士称,目前双方之间或特朗普政府的任何中间人都无法传达可行协议的轮廓。
一些海湾国家和其他美国盟友希望立即停火并开放海峡,但另一些国家希望达成更全面的协议。阿联酋驻美大使优素福·阿尔-奥泰巴周三在《华尔街日报》的专栏文章中写道,目前停火还不够,主张达成全面协议。
“简单的停火是不够的。我们需要一个决定性的结果,解决伊朗的全方位威胁:核能力、导弹、无人机、恐怖代理人以及对国际海上航道的封锁,”奥泰巴写道。
“霍尔木兹海峡对伊朗来说是一种新工具,我们从未见过,”现在就职于大西洋理事会的斯旺森表示,他指出伊朗喜欢充当“通行费运营商”。
伊朗官员继续坚称他们没有与美国谈判,但伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇承认两国通过调解人进行了信息交流。
“发送信息并以警告或陈述立场回应的行为,不称为谈判或对话,而是信息交流,”他在伊朗国家广播公司说。
“在这些信息中,提出的想法已传达给高层当局,如果需要采取立场,他们会宣布,”阿拉格奇周三表示。
与此同时,白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特周三坚持称“谈判仍在继续”且“富有成效”。
两位美国高级政府官员告诉CNN,特朗普政府正在努力安排本周末在巴基斯坦举行会议,讨论战争的出路。目前计划副总统JD·万斯可能与其他高级特朗普官员一起前往该国。
两位地区消息人士表示,伊朗代表已向特朗普政府表示,他们不想重新与维特科夫和库什纳进行谈判,而更愿意与万斯接触。特朗普周二表示,万斯、国务卿马尔科·卢比奥、库什纳和维特科夫目前正在领导与伊朗的谈判。
官员们警告称,潜在访问的时间、地点和参会人员仍不明确。两位知情人士表示,土耳其也被建议作为谈判地点,因为一些官员对在巴基斯坦举行会议表示安全担忧。巴基斯坦和土耳其都曾担任美国和伊朗之间的中间人。
在关于本周末潜在谈判的来回交流中,一位高级海湾官员表示,海湾盟友私下敦促特朗普政府不要通过派遣地面部队占领霍姆兹岛或移除伊朗的高浓缩铀来升级战争,他们担心美国占领该岛会导致高伤亡,可能触发伊朗对地区基础设施的报复,并延长冲突。
然而,进一步的美国军事行动的可能性依然存在。两位知情人士称,约1000名第82空降师士兵预计将在未来几天部署到中东,使该地区日益增长的军事力量进一步加强,而特朗普政府称正在与伊朗谈判结束冲突。
利维特周三警告称,如果“伊朗不接受当前局势的现实”,特朗普“准备发动地狱式的攻击”。
CNN的Alayna Treene、Kristen Holmes、Kevin Liptak和Mohammed Tawfeeq对此报道有贡献。
Obstacles to ending war come into focus as US and Iran outline starkly different demands
By Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood, Tal Shalev
58 min ago
PUBLISHED Mar 25, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Almost exactly one month ago, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met indirectly with the Iranians in Geneva as the Trump administration continued to claim diplomacy was its preferred option. Two days later, the US and Israel launched their war against Iran.
Now, the United States is again seeking to return to talks after President Donald Trump’s about face on Monday when he announced the two countries were negotiating an end to the conflict –- but there are significant hurdles on the path back to the negotiating table despite public optimism voiced by the White House.
Gulf and European allies are closely watching and growing concerned about the lack of momentum towards negotiations to end the conflict or even put a ceasefire into place, multiple sources told CNN.
Although there are efforts underway to try to arrange a meeting between the two sides, sources say such a gathering is unlikely to take place soon given the wide gap between the two countries’ demands.
The specter of continued military action by the US and Israel looms large over potential discussions. Meanwhile, Tehran perceives itself to possess a key tool that it did not have prior to the outbreak of the war: virtual control over the Strait of Hormuz.
“The very basics must be agreed on before the two sides board and take off for negotiations,” one regional source, told CNN adding that Iranians have now given “a maximum no to a maximalist offer.”
Earlier this week, the US conveyed, via Pakistan, a 15-point list of demands for Iran. Many of the demands echo those made by the US before the war began: Iran committing to no nuclear weapons, the US taking possession of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defense capabilities, and an end of Iran’s support for proxies.
If that is truly the US’ position, “there is no world where there’ll be successful negotiations,” Nate Swanson, a former career US government official who served as director for Iran at the National Security Council, told CNN.
The other key player in the war, Israel, is concerned that the US may declare a one-month ceasefire in order to facilitate negotiations with Iran, two Israeli sources told CNN. However, the country remains skeptical about the prospect of a breakthrough, according to one of the sources.
“The maximum Iran might be willing to give does not meet the minimum the US is demanding,” the source said, adding that Israel views several elements of the US framework as “positive and good for Israel” -– in particular those regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the activities of its regional proxies. However, another Israeli source said that in the long run, Israel is wary that an eventual ceasefire agreement will not address all of its concerns, particularly regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program and proxy activities around the region.
Swanson said Iran likely perceives Trump is taking the same stance as before – offering capitulation or escalation – and it does not appear that Iran is taking the prospect of diplomacy seriously. Tehran, he said, is putting out “an equally as audacious and unrealistic proposal.”
On Wednesday, an Iranian official outlined the country’s own list of demands, according to state-run media outlet Press TV. They include a complete halt to “aggression and assassinations,” establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure the war on Iran does not resume, guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations, an end to military operations across all fronts and for all Iranian proxies throughout the region, and a guarantee that Iran can exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
No sign of a viable agreement
Tehran’s ability to snarl the key waterway, despite US progress degrading Iran’s military capabilities, has caused the price of fuel to skyrocket and set global markets on edge. It is also a potential edge for Iran in future negotiations, and sources say none of the interlocutors sending messages between the two sides or the Trump administration are now able to convey what the contours of a viable agreement might look like.
Some Gulf nations and other US allies would like to see an immediate halt to fighting and an opening of the strait, but others want a grander deal to be reached. UAE’s Ambassador to the US Yousef Al Otaiba wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Wednesday saying that a ceasefire is not enough right now, advocating for an overall agreement to be struck.
“A simple cease-fire isn’t enough. We need a conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats: nuclear capabilities, missiles, drones, terror proxies and blockades of international sea lanes,” Otaiba wrote.
“Strait of Hormuz is a new tool for them in a way we haven’t seen before,” said Swanson, who is now at the Atlantic Council, noting that Iran likes to serve as “tollbooth operator” for the passage.
Iranian officials have continued to maintain they are not in negotiations with the US, but Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi did acknowledge an exchange of messages between the two countries through mediators.
“The fact that messages are being sent and we respond with warnings or state our positions is not called negotiation or dialogue; it is an exchange of messages,” he said on the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting network.
“In these messages, ideas were raised that have been conveyed to top authorities, and if a position needs to be taken, they will announce it,” Araghchi said Wednesday.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, meanwhile, insisted on Wednesday that “talks continue” and “they are productive.”
Trump administration officials are working to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to discuss an off ramp to the war, two senior administration officials told CNN. The current plans have Vice President JD Vance traveling to the country, possibly alongside other top Trump officials.
Iranian representatives have let the Trump administration know it does not want to re-enter negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner and would prefer to engage with Vance, two regional sources said. Trump on Tuesday said Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Kushner and Witkoff are currently leading negotiations with Iran.
Officials cautioned that the timing of a potential trip is fluid, as is the location and who may attend. Turkey has also been suggested as a potential location for the talks, two sources familiar with the matter said, as some officials raise security concerns about holding a meeting in Pakistan. Both Pakistan and Turkey have served as intermediaries between the US and Iran.
Amid the flurry of back and forth about potential talks this weekend, Gulf allies are privately urging the Trump administration against ramping up the war by putting boots on the ground to occupy Kharg Island or remove Iran’s highly enriched uranium, a senior Gulf official said, citing concerns that a US occupation of the island would result in high casualties, likely trigger Iranian retaliation against regional infrastructure, and prolong the conflict.
Still, the potential for further US military action is looming. Approximately 1,000 US soldiers with the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are expecting to deploy in coming days to the Middle East, according to two sources familiar with the matter, adding to the growing military firepower in the region as the Trump administration says it is in talks with Iran to end the conflict.
Leavitt warned Wednesday that if “Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment,” Trump “is prepared to unleash hell.”
CNN’s Alayna Treene, Kristen Holmes, Kevin Liptak and Mohammed Tawfeeq contributed reporting.
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