By Paul Steinhauser | 福克斯新闻
发表于 2026 年 3 月 25 日 美国东部时间下午 12:09
民主党人欣喜若狂，因为他们在佛罗里达州以保守派为主、以棕榈滩为中心（包括唐纳德·特朗普总统的宅邸海湖庄园）的一个共和党控制的立法选区中成功改旗易帜。
“如果民主党能在特朗普自己的后院获胜，我们就能在任何地方获胜。从现在到11月，民主党将全力以赴，在佛罗里达州和全国的每一个角落展开竞争，”民主党全国委员会（DNC）主席肯·马丁在指出今年中期选举（届时共和党将捍卫其在众议院和参议院的微弱多数）时强调道。
马丁在周二晚间发表了上述声明，就在几分钟前，民主党候选人艾米丽·格雷戈里在佛罗里达州众议院第87选区的补选中击败了共和党候选人乔恩·梅普尔斯。该选区的空缺是去年8月因共和党州议员迈克·卡鲁索辞职担任棕榈滩县文员和审计长而产生的。
但竞争对手共和党全国委员会（RNC）则指出这次投票的挫折，强调民主党人在过度解读，而且特别选举远非预示未来的最佳指标。
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即将当选的佛罗里达州州议员艾米丽·格雷戈里在佛罗里达州棕榈滩接受美联社采访，谈及她的补选胜利，该补选成功拿下了包括总统唐纳德·特朗普的宅邸海湖庄园在内的选区，2026年3月25日。(美联社)
“低投票率的州众议院特别选举只是当地特殊情况、候选人动态和投票率计算的快照——而非某种重大裁决，”RNC高级顾问丹妮尔·阿尔瓦雷斯在一份声明中表示。
尽管格雷戈里的胜利不会改变州立法机构的权力平衡（共和党在该机构的众议院和参议院均占据多数已超过四分之一个世纪），但在总统家乡选区的”面子分”争夺中，共和党失去了优势。
梅普尔斯得到了特朗普的支持，后者于2019年将其主要永久住所从纽约市的特朗普大厦迁至佛罗里达州棕榈滩的海湖庄园。
【共和党’警钟’——特别选举意外凸显共和党中期选举风险】
“明天（3月24日，星期二）在美丽的棕榈滩县佛罗里达州众议院第87选区将举行一场非常重要的特别选举——乔恩·梅普尔斯得到我完全且绝对的支持！”总统在周一晚间的社交媒体帖子中写道。
几十年来，棕榈滩县一直倾向于民主党，但共和党在最近的选举周期中在那里的投票中取得了重大进展。
格雷戈里在一个在2024年选举中特朗普以10个百分点优势获胜、卡鲁索以19个百分点优势获胜的选区中意外获胜，这并非民主党在周二晚间唯一的红色选区改旗易帜。
根据佛罗里达州中部希尔斯伯勒县的非官方结果，民主党人布莱恩·内森在特别选举中以微弱优势击败共和党人乔西·托姆科，赢得了接替共和党人杰伊·柯林斯的席位（柯林斯于8月辞职担任副州长）。在第三场特别选举中，共和党人希拉里·霍利击败民主党人埃德温·佩雷斯，赢得了接替托姆科的席位。
自特朗普14个月前重返白宫以来，民主党在佛罗里达州的胜利是他们在全国范围内一系列特别选举中最新的胜绩或超额表现。
去年爱荷华州两个共和党控制的州参议院席位的易主，使共和党失去了该机构的超级多数席位。
而且，许多共和党人将今年2月初在德克萨斯州一个极保守的选区参议院特别选举中，共和党遭遇两位数的惨败称为”对党内的警钟”。
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民主党人还在去年11月蓝领倾向的弗吉尼亚州和新泽西州州长选举中取得了超出预期的胜利。
民主党在投票中表现出色，部分原因是他们将重点放在解决持续的通货膨胀问题上，提高民众的生活成本。这些胜利进一步激励了民主党人，他们正努力在中期选举中赢回国会控制权。
与此同时，共和党人正面临严峻的政治逆风。作为首都的执政党，共和党在中期选举中传统上会失去席位，再加上经济担忧、与伊朗的不受欢迎的战争以及特朗普的支持率低迷，这些都加剧了不利的政治氛围。
民调显示，2024年选举中特朗普和共和党人获胜的经济和移民问题，现在可能成为他们的负担。
DNC在声明中称格雷戈里的胜利是”佛罗里达州民主党人的惊天动地的胜利，也是唐纳德·特朗普的耻辱性失败”。
“唐纳德·特朗普自己的邻居刚刚发出了一个明确无误的信息：他们愤怒了，准备迎接变革，”马丁宣称。
但共和党人表示，民主党人过度强调了他们在特别选举中的成功。
“历史上，特别选举一直是定期举行的中期选举或总统选举结果的糟糕指标，”资深共和党策略师和传播专家杰西·亨特告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。”特别选举有其独特的动态，当广大选民在11月展现出投票的’肌肉记忆’时，这些动态的影响就不那么大了。”
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资深共和党策略师科林·里德指出，共和党去年夏天通过的《一大美法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill Act）——一项通过党派路线通过的大规模法案，包含众多减税措施——许多选民将在今年春天感受到这些措施的影响。
“如果经济开始在《一大美法案》的各项条款推动下蓬勃发展，共和党需要提醒美国人民，这是一项由一个政党统一支持、另一政党反对的政策。这是共和党在中期选举前的重大赌注，而伊朗局势仍是可能颠覆整个政治格局的未知因素。”里德表示。
保罗·施泰因豪瑟是新罕布什尔州（摇摆州）的政治记者，报道全国范围内的竞选活动。
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6388669662112
Democrats seize on Trump-district flip as midterm signal — Republicans reject the narrative
By Paul Steinhauser | Fox News
Published March 25, 2026 12:09pm EDT
Democrats are ecstatic after flipping a Republican-controlled legislative seat in a right-leaning, Palm Beach, Florida-anchored district that includes Mar-a-Lago, President Donald Trump’s home turf.
“If Democrats can win in Trump’s own backyard, we can win anywhere. From now until November, Democrats are all gas and no brakes as we compete across every corner of Florida and the nation,” Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin emphasized as he pointed to this year’s midterm elections, when the GOP will be defending its narrow House and Senate majorities.
Martin released his statement on Tuesday night, minutes after Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples in a special election in Florida’s House District 87, in the race to fill the seat left vacant last August, when GOP state Rep. Mike Caruso resigned to become Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller.
But the rival Republican National Committee (RNC), pointing to the ballot box setback, stressed that Democrats were overplaying their hand and that special elections are far from the best barometer of things to come.
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Florida state Rep.-elect Emily Gregory speaks with The Associated Press from Palm Beach, Florida, about her special election win where she flipped a district that is home to President Donald Trump’s estate, Mar-a-Lago, March 25, 2026.(AP)
“A low-turnout state House special election is a snapshot of local quirks, candidate dynamics, and turnout math — not some grand verdict,” RNC Senior Adviser Danielle Alvarez said in a statement.
While Gregory’s victory won’t change the balance of power in the state legislature, where for more than a quarter-century Republicans have held majorities in both the House and Senate chambers, bragging rights were up for grabs in the president’s home district.
And Maples was backed by Trump, who moved his primary permanent residence in 2019 from Trump Tower in New York City to Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.
REPUBLICAN ‘WAKE-UP CALL’—SPECIAL ELECTION SHOCKER HIGHLIGHTS GOP MIDTERM RISKS
“There is a very important Special Election tomorrow, Tuesday, March 24th, for Florida State House District 87 in beautiful Palm Beach County — JON MAPLES HAS MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT!” the president wrote in a social media post on Monday evening.
Palm Beach County has leaned blue for decades, but Republicans have made major gains there at the ballot box in recent election cycles.
Gregory’s upset, in a district that in the 2024 elections Trump carried by 10 points and Caruso won by 19 points, wasn’t the Democrats’ only flip of a red seat on Tuesday night.
President Donald Trump backed Republican Jon Maples in Tuesday’s special legislative election in Florida’s House District 87, which includes Mar-a-Lago, the president’s permanent residence in Palm Beach, Florida.(Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images; AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)
According to unofficial results from Hillsborough County in central Florida, Democrat Brian Nathan narrowly edged Republican Josie Tomkow in a special election in the race to succeed the GOP’s Jay Collins, who resigned from the state Senate in August to become lieutenant governor. In a third special election, Republican Hilary Holley defeated Democrat Edwin Perez, in the race to replace Tomkow.
The Democrats’ Sunshine State victories are their latest wins or over performances in a slew of special elections from coast to coast since Trump returned to power in the White House 14 months ago.
The flipping of two GOP-controlled state Senate seats in Iowa last year denied Republicans their super majority in the chamber.
And plenty of Republicans were calling their party’s double-digit shellacking in a state Senate election in a ruby red district in Texas in an early February special election a “wake-up call” for the party.
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Democrats also scored larger than expected victories in last November’s gubernatorial elections in blue-leaning Virginia and New Jersey.
Partially fueling the Democrats’ ballot box performances is their laser focus on affordability amid persistent inflation. And the victories are further energizing Democrats as they work to win back control of Congress in the midterms.
Meanwhile, Republicans are battling stiff political headwinds as the party in power in the nation’s capital traditionally loses seats in the midterms, and a rough political climate fueled by economic concerns, an unpopular war with Iran, and Trump’s underwater approval ratings.
And public opinion polling suggests that the economy and immigration, winning issues for Trump and Republicans in the 2024 elections, may be liabilities now.
The DNC, in their statement, called Gregory’s win “an earth-shattering victory for Florida Democrats and humiliating defeat for Donald Trump.”
“Donald Trump’s own neighbors just sent a crystal clear message: They are furious and ready for change,” Martin claimed.
But Republicans say that Democrats are overemphasizing their special election successes.
“Historically, special elections have been a poor barometer for what will occur during regularly scheduled midterm or presidential elections,” veteran Republican strategist and communicator Jesse Hunt told Fox News Digital. “Specials have unique dynamics that don’t play as much of a factor when the broader electorate feels the muscle memory of showing up to vote in November.”
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Longtime Republican strategist Colin Reed pointed to the GOP’s sweeping One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the massive measure passed along party lines last summer by Republicans, which includes numerous tax cuts that many voters will feel this spring.
“If the economy starts booming on the backs of the One, Big Beautiful Bill’s provisions taking hold, the Republican Party need to remind America that this was a policy uniformly supported by one party and opposed by another. That’s the GOP’s big bet heading into the midterms, with the situation in Iran remaining the one unknowable wild car that has the potential to upend the entire political landscape,” Reed said.
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast.
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6388669662112
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