2026年3月25日 美国东部时间上午5:00 | 更新于2026年3月25日美国东部时间上午8:36
即使在美以针对伊朗军事力量和能力发动打击之后，伊朗仍拥有一系列能够威胁全球最关键石油咽喉要道之一的武器。
从水雷、反舰导弹到无人机和快速攻击艇，伊朗仍保留足够的非对称作战能力，能够在不完全封锁霍尔木兹海峡的情况下扰乱航运。
全球约五分之一的石油供应通过霍尔木兹海峡运输，分析人士表示，伊朗无需彻底封锁该海峡即可产生全球影响。
即使是有限的此类能力组合——在关键航道布雷、少量反舰导弹或快速艇骚扰——也足以提高风险、减缓航运并推高全球能源价格。
伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡部署伪装成渔船的爆炸式“自杀小艇”
近几周来，通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运已放缓，导致全球油价上涨，并迫使大多数船只避开该航线，进而影响燃油成本和全球供应链。
全球石油运输面临的风险不断增加之际，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五加大了对伊朗的施压，要求其重新开放海峡，并发出48小时最后通牒，威胁若航运未恢复将打击伊朗能源基础设施。
然而，几天后，特朗普撤回了最后期限，在他所谓的“富有成效”的讨论中暂停了潜在打击——这凸显了华盛顿愿意采取何种程度行动恢复航运的不确定性。
“在一个受限制的海上咽喉要道扰乱商业航运并不需要太多力量，”美国第五舰队前指挥官、海军中将凯文·多尼根告诉福克斯新闻数字版，他以红海近期发生的航运中断为例，说明即使是有限能力也能减缓或中断航运。
对于商业航运公司而言，哪怕只有微小的灾难风险也过高。
“你可能最终被伊朗无人机击中，可能被伊朗反舰巡航导弹击中，或者被伊朗神风特攻队水面无人海军系统击中，”哈德逊研究所保守智库国防分析师坎·卡萨波卢告诉福克斯新闻数字版，“也许只有5%的概率，但这足以导致保险费率飙升，船员理所当然地要求更高费用，这并非商业友好的环境。”
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）的小型快速舰艇更难追踪，可融入常规海事交通，使其难以被彻底消灭。
“让霍尔木兹海峡100%无威胁实际上会偏离中央司令部当前的主要目标，”卡萨波卢告诉福克斯新闻数字版，他指出美军正在持续努力打击伊朗导弹和无人机。
他补充说，即使保留有限的剩余能力仍然构成风险，“单个反舰导弹电池”就足以威胁该地区的海事交通，这意味着伊朗不需要大量库存就能维持扰乱行动。
伊朗快速攻击艇部队在美国近期打击中损失惨重，美国官员称数十艘船只被摧毁。但分析人士表示，数百艘小型舰艇——许多可携带导弹或布雷——可能仍然存在，使其难以被彻底消灭。
要完全消除威胁，需要在广阔且拥挤的水道上近乎持续的监控——而美军无法随时保证这一点。
但最具扰乱性的工具可能是水雷，其部署成本相对较低，但由于其造成的不确定性，对航运影响巨大。
与可追踪拦截的导弹或无人机不同，水雷可在水下潜伏而不被发现，部分水雷设计为仅在船只多次经过后才引爆。这使得水雷更难定位，迫使商业船只即使在未发生攻击时也需承担风险。
据信伊朗拥有数千枚海军水雷，尽管只需少量即可扰乱海峡航运。
最近有报道称，伊朗可能只部署或准备了10至12枚水雷，不过美国官员尚未公开确切数字。确认水雷的确切数量和位置需要在海底实际探测——这一过程耗时且需要在海峡存在军事力量。
“你必须在行动中抓住他们，”基金会国防民主研究所高级研究员贝纳姆·本·塔莱布卢表示，他指出阻止用于部署水雷的小型舰艇极具挑战性。
美国摧毁16艘伊朗布雷艇，霍尔木兹海峡石油摊牌升级
如果怀疑有水雷，美及其盟国部队会专注于识别和保护狭窄的通行航道，而非一次性清理整个海峡。
这一过程通常从声纳和无人水下航行器扫描海床寻找类似水雷的物体开始。一旦探测到，这些物体要么被标记并避开，要么使用远程操作的系统，通过在水雷旁放置小型爆炸物将其摧毁。
由于许多系统可远程部署，执行扫雷作业的船只可在最危险区域外活动，同时使用无人机和水下航行器进行探测和处置。
美军依赖的工具也已发生变化。
2025年，美国海军退役了多艘驻扎在巴林的复仇者级扫雷舰——这些老旧船只长期用于波斯湾的水雷探测和中和——并以新型濒海战斗舰为核心的系统取代。
这些舰艇不直接进入水雷威胁区域，而是作为无人系统的平台，可远程部署以定位和摧毁水雷。
美军已针对伊朗布雷船只和相关海军资产采取行动，但大规模扫雷行动可能在威胁环境进一步降低后才会展开。
多尼根表示，能力不仅限于单一平台，用于探测和中和水雷的系统可从多种舰艇部署。
“我们不是唯一拥有这种能力的国家，”他强调盟友和地区海军也可参与扫雷行动和商业航运保护。
“世界经济需要一个与盟友的海事联盟，”卡萨波卢表示，“如果有一个时机让欧洲国家，特别是西欧国家——法国、英国等海军强国——为美国军事力量数十年来提供的安全支付费用，那就是现在。”
关于新型系统在实际条件下的表现仍存疑问。
最近的五角大楼测试报告发现，缺乏足够数据全面评估濒海战斗舰上部署的关键猎雷和扫雷技术的有效性，而早期测试指出一些无人系统存在可靠性和可用性问题。
即便如此，清理水雷和恢复航运可能仍是多国行动，美军将与盟友合作确保通行航道安全、护航船只并逐步扩大水道内的安全通行范围。
当前挑战是恢复足够信心让全球航运重新启动——这一过程可能迫使美盟海军进行持续护航行动，同时保险公司和能源市场围绕海峡持续存在的风险进行重新校准。
与立即恢复正常交通不同，船只可能在军事保护下以较小规模的受控编队移动，随着威胁被识别和清除，安全走廊将逐步扩大。
只要伊朗仍保留部署水雷、发射无人机或骚扰船只的能力（即使有所削弱），全球最关键石油航线之一的风险就不太可能完全消失——这意味着全球市场、军事规划者和政治领导人将在长期不确定性中周旋。
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Iran’s remaining weapons: How Tehran can still disrupt the Strait of Hormuz
March 25, 2026 5:00am EDT | Updated March 25, 2026 8:36am EDT
Iran still has a range of weapons capable of threatening one of the world’s most critical oil choke points — even after U.S.–Israeli strikes targeting its military and capabilities.
From naval mines and anti-ship missiles to drones and fast attack boats, Iran retains enough asymmetric capability to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz without fully shutting it down.
Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply moves through the Strait, and analysts say Iran does not need to block it outright to have a global impact.
Even a limited mix of those capabilities — mines in key shipping lanes, a handful of anti-ship missiles or harassment from fast boats — can be enough to raise risk, slow traffic and drive up energy prices across the globe.
IRAN DEPLOYS EXPLOSIVE ‘SUICIDE SKIFFS’ DISGUISED AS FISHING BOATS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Shipping through the strait already has slowed in recent weeks, pushing oil prices higher worldwide and forcing most vessels to avoid the route, with knock-on effects on fuel costs and global supply chains.
The mounting risk to global oil flows also comes as President Donald Trump escalated pressure on Iran to reopen the strait Friday, issuing a 48-hour ultimatum threatening strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure if shipping was not restored.
Days later, however, Trump backed off that deadline, pausing potential strikes amid what he described as “productive” discussions — highlighting the uncertainty over how far Washington is willing to go to restore shipping.
“It doesn’t take much to disrupt commercial traffic through a constrained maritime choke point,” former U.S. 5th Fleet Commander Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan told Fox News Digital, pointing to recent disruptions in the Red Sea as an example of how even limited capabilities can slow or halt shipping.
For commercial shippers, even a small risk of disaster is too much.
“You might just end up getting hit by an Iranian drone. You might end up being hit by Iranian anti-ship cruise missile or you might end getting hit by Iranian kamikaze surface robotic naval system,” Can Kasapoglu, defense analyst at the Hudson Institute conservative think tank, told Fox News Digital. “Maybe it’s only a 5% chance, but that alone causes a spike in insurance rates, crews understandably asking for more money, it’s not a business-friendly environment.”
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) smaller, fast-moving vessels are harder to track and can blend into regular maritime traffic, making them difficult to eliminate entirely.
“Keeping the Strait 100% threat-free would actually divert CENTCOM’s main objective right now,” Kasapoğlu told Fox News Digital, pointing to ongoing efforts to target Iranian missiles and drones across the nation.
Even a limited remaining capability can still pose a risk, he added, noting that “one single anti-ship missile battery” could be enough to threaten maritime traffic in the region, meaning Iran does not need large stockpiles to sustain disruption.
Iran’s fast-attack fleet has taken losses in recent U.S. strikes, with U.S. officials saying dozens of boats have been destroyed. But analysts say hundreds of smaller vessels — many capable of carrying missiles or laying mines — likely remain, making them difficult to eliminate entirely.
Eliminating the threat entirely would require near-constant surveillance across a vast and crowded waterway — something U.S. forces cannot guarantee at all times.
But the most disruptive tool may be naval mines, which are relatively cheap to deploy but can have an outsized impact on shipping due to the uncertainty they create.
Unlike missiles or drones, which can be tracked and intercepted, mines can sit undetected in the water, with some designed to detonate only after a ship passes over them multiple times. That makes them harder to locate and forces commercial vessels to assume risk even when no attack has occurred.
Iran is believed to possess thousands of naval mines, though only a small number would be needed to disrupt traffic in the strait.
Recent reporting has suggested that as few as 10 to 12 mines may have been deployed or prepared, though U.S. officials have not publicly confirmed exact figures. Confirming their exact number and location requires physically detecting them on the seafloor — a process that takes time and a presence in the strait.
Mining operations can be particularly difficult to counter because of that uncertainty, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“You kind of have to catch them in action,” he told Fox News Digital, describing the challenge of stopping smaller vessels used to deploy mines.
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If mines are suspected, U.S. and allied forces focus on identifying and securing narrow transit lanes rather than clearing the entire strait at once.
That process typically begins with sonar and unmanned underwater vehicles scanning the seabed for mine-like objects. Once detected, those objects are either marked and avoided or destroyed using remotely operated systems that place small explosive charges next to the mine.
Because many of these systems are deployed remotely, ships conducting mine countermeasure operations can remain outside the most dangerous areas while using drones and underwater vehicles to carry out detection and disposal.
The tools the U.S. would rely on have also changed.
In 2025, the Navy decommissioned several Bahrain-based Avenger-class minesweepers — aging ships that had long been used to detect and neutralize mines in the Gulf — and replaced them with newer systems centered around the littoral combat ship.
Rather than entering mine-threat areas directly, those ships act as platforms for unmanned systems that can be deployed remotely to locate and disable mines.
U.S. forces already have targeted Iranian mine-laying vessels and related naval assets in the strait, but large-scale mine-clearing operations likely would come later, after the threat environment is further reduced.
Capabilities are not limited to a single platform, Donegan said, noting that the systems used to detect and neutralize mines can be deployed from a range of vessels.
“We’re not the only ones with that capability,” he said, emphasizing that allied and regional navies can also contribute to mine-clearing operations and the protection of commercial shipping.
“The world economy needs a maritime coalition with allies,” said Kasapoglu. “If there is a time for the Europeans to step up, especially for Western Europeans — France, Britain, all these naval nations, to pay for decades long of security provided by American military might, it is right now.”
Questions remain about how newer systems perform under real-world conditions.
A recent Pentagon testing report found there was insufficient data to fully assess the effectiveness of key mine-hunting and mine-clearing technologies deployed on littoral combat ships, while earlier testing flagged reliability and availability issues with some of the unmanned systems.
Even so, clearing mines and restoring shipping would likely be a multinational effort, with U.S. forces working alongside allies to secure transit lanes, escort vessels and gradually expand safe passage along the waterway.
The immediate challenge is restoring enough confidence for global shipping to resume — a process that could force U.S. and allied navies into sustained escort operations while insurers and energy markets recalibrate around persistent risk in the Strait.
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Rather than an immediate return to normal traffic, vessels would likely move in smaller, controlled groups under military protection, with safe corridors expanding as threats are identified and cleared.
And as long as Iran retains even a reduced ability to deploy mines, launch drones or harass vessels, the risk to one of the world’s most critical oil routes is unlikely to disappear entirely — leaving global markets, military planners and political leaders navigating a prolonged period of uncertainty.
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