分析师表示，尽管伊朗国家本身被描述为比以往任何时候都更虚弱，但伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）对伊朗的控制却比以往任何时候都更强。
作者：埃弗拉特·拉赫特（Efrat Lachter）
福克斯新闻
发布时间：2026年3月24日 美国东部时间下午3:08
福克斯新闻记者卢卡斯·汤姆林森（Lucas Tomlinson）在“福克斯与朋友”节目中报道了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普要求霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后，美国与伊朗之间的间接谈判情况。
“没人知道该和谁谈，”唐纳德·特朗普总统周二在白宫表示，描述了他所描绘的伊朗领导层内部的混乱与机遇并存的局面。“但我们实际上正在与正确的人交谈，而且他们非常希望达成协议。”
他的这番言论发表之际，美国声称正与伊朗一位“高层”人物进行谈判，而德黑兰方面则公开否认谈判正在进行。
现在的问题不仅是谈判是否在进行，更是德黑兰是否有人有权达成协议。随着对伊朗高级领导层的打击以及内部裂痕加剧，伊朗似乎不再像一个中央集权的神权国家，而更像一个由重叠权力中心管理的战时体系，其中伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）是核心。
以下是现在伊朗的关键人物和权力结构：
[特朗普中东特使透露伊美谈判破裂的原因（在“史诗狂怒”行动之前）]
国务院“悬赏通缉”海报上提供高达1000万美元，用于提供与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）关键领导人相关的情报，包括穆贾塔巴·哈梅内伊（Mojtaba Khamenei）、阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐（Ali Asghar Hejazi）、叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维（Yahya Rahim Safavi）、阿里·拉里贾尼（Ali Larijani）、伊斯坎达尔·莫门尼（Eskandar Momeni）和伊斯梅尔·哈蒂布（Esmail Khatib）。（国务院/悬赏通缉）
伊斯兰革命卫队：国家背后的真正力量
在情报评估和近期报道中，有一个结论是一致的：伊斯兰革命卫队已成为伊朗政治体系中的主导力量。
民主与外交政策基金会（Foundation for Defense of Democracies）高级研究员贝赫南姆·本·塔莱布鲁（Behnam Ben Taleblu）表示，当前局势正在加速一个长期趋势。
“毫无疑问，12天的战争和当前冲突已经削弱了伊斯兰共和国政治和军事领导层的制高点，”他说，“但这也加快了伊朗政治中固有的趋势，即安全部队的主导地位和伊斯兰革命卫队的崛起。”
“是的，伊斯兰革命卫队对国家的控制比以往任何时候都多，但国家比以往任何时候都更虚弱，比以往任何时候都更像一个国家安全残余政权，”他补充道。
“这对华盛顿来说并不特别值得担忧，即谁在谈判或不在谈判，”本·塔莱布鲁补充道，“华盛顿最首要的关注点必须是在政治上取得军事胜利，而这不能通过与伊斯兰革命卫队合作实现，而应该是在战场上击败他们，并支持伊朗境内最反对他们的力量——也就是伊朗人民。”
伊朗德黑兰“艾拉·贝伊特·阿尔·穆贾达萨（Al-Aqsa清真寺）军事集会”上，伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）军事人员沿着革命大道行进，同时伊朗Kheibar地对地导弹被揭幕。IRGC在集会上揭幕了两枚新型导弹。（Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images）
指挥中心：最高国家安全委员会
如果伊斯兰革命卫队是伊朗的权力核心，那么最高国家安全委员会（Supreme National Security Council）似乎就是行使这种权力的机制。
最高国家安全委员会是伊朗协调军事和外交政策的最高论坛，在最高领袖的权威下汇集了伊斯兰革命卫队高级指挥官和政府官员。它成立于1979年革命之后，在管理重大危机（从核谈判到战时行动）中发挥了核心作用。
路透社周二报道，伊朗任命了前伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官穆罕默德·巴格赫尔·佐尔加德尔（Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr）为该委员会秘书，这进一步强化了其在协调军事和政治决策中的核心作用。
一位了解该体系的中东官方消息人士描述了其结构：
“现在权力掌握在伊斯兰革命卫队手中，”该消息人士说，“最高国家安全委员会当然会在大多数伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官的支持下做出决定。”
一名哀悼者手持描绘阿亚图拉穆贾塔巴·哈梅内伊（右）的海报，哈梅内伊是他已故父亲阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊（左）的继任者，作为最高领袖参加在伊朗德黑兰举行的为在战役中丧生的高级军事官员和公民举行的葬礼游行。（Vahid Salemi/AP Photo）
穆贾塔巴·哈梅内伊：名义上的最高领袖
从形式上看，伊朗的体系以最高领袖穆贾塔巴·哈梅内伊（Mojtaba Khamenei）为中心。但他实际掌握的权力仍不确定。
哈梅内伊在其父去世后继承了该职位的广泛权力，但“缺乏其父所享有的自动权威”，这位中东官员表示。
此外，自掌权以来，他一直没有公开露面，只发布书面声明，引发了人们对其健康状况和治理能力的质疑。据报道，他在2月28日美国和以色列的初步打击中受伤，此次打击导致他父亲和其他伊朗高级领导人死亡。
耶路撒冷战略与安全研究所（Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security）所长约西·库佩瓦塞尔（Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser）暗示，他的角色目前可能有限：“目前，（由于穆贾塔巴受伤），他似乎只是个‘全息图’，并未掌握实权。然而，如果穆贾塔巴康复，他将参与统治伊朗。他不仅仅是个象征性人物。但无论如何，目前控制伊朗的是革命卫队。”
[伊朗人带着狗、跳舞和露出的头发，公然反抗“社会主义者、激进分子的邪恶联盟”：“伪君子！”]
贾利巴夫：特朗普宣称的“高层人物”
特朗普声称他正在与一位“高层人物”交谈，这一说法特别聚焦于一个名字：穆罕默德·巴格赫尔·贾利巴夫（Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf）。
Axios报道称，白宫正在暗中将贾利巴夫视为潜在的对话者，甚至可能是未来的伊朗领导人。
贾利巴夫曾是伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官，现任议会发言人，代表了体制内的一个混合人物，桥接了军事背景和政治权威。
他是1999年7月镇压学生抗议活动的关键安全人物之一，并自2005年以来四次竞选总统。
[伊朗战争，11天：美国掌控天空，石油价格飙升，该地区为下一步行动做准备]
据报道，贾利巴夫最早可能在本周末前往巴基斯坦首都，与美国特使史蒂夫·维特科夫（Steve Witkoff）和贾里德·库什纳（Jared Kushner）会面。
本·塔莱布鲁表示：“那些认为像贾利巴夫这样的IRGC老将的崛起，将权力扩展到其传统的平民统治之外的人，错过了过去几十年中，在伊朗政治中，性格而非职业一直是驱动力的事实。我还想说，那些担心最高国家安全委员会具有IRGC背景的人，可能都忽略了一个事实，即过去几任最高国家安全委员会秘书，如沙姆哈尼、拉里贾尼、艾哈迈迪安，也都有IRGC背景。”
与此同时，贾利巴夫公开否认与美国进行谈判，双方均未直接证实谈判的存在。
阿拉奇：传递信息的外交官
伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉奇（Abbas Araqchi）仍然是国际上最受关注的人物之一。
路透社报道，如果谈判进行，阿拉奇很可能会与贾利巴夫一起作为伊朗代表团成员参与。
但分析师警告说，他的角色是有限的。他可能充当沟通渠道，但不独立制定政策。
战略决策，特别是关于战争和谈判的决策，仍然由伊斯兰革命卫队和更广泛的安全机构塑造。
伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安（Masoud Pezeshkian）、司法负责人戈拉姆-侯赛因·莫赫森尼-埃杰伊（Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i）和专家会议副主席阿里雷扎·阿拉菲（Alireza Arafi）在伊朗未知地点参加伊朗临时领导委员会会议，当时美国-以色列与伊朗发生冲突。（IRIB/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/路透社提供的资料图片）
更广泛的权力圈：将军、神职人员和执法者
除了上述头条人物外，还有一批更广泛的官员继续塑造伊朗的发展方向。
这些人包括伊斯兰革命卫队总司令艾哈迈德·瓦希迪（Ahmad Vahidi）、圣城部队指挥官伊斯梅尔·卡尼（Esmail Qaani）、海军指挥官阿里雷扎·唐西里（Alireza Tangsiri）、司法负责人戈拉姆侯赛因·莫赫森尼-埃杰伊（Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei）、总统马苏德·佩泽什基安（Masoud Pezeshkian），以及像赛义德·贾利利（Saeed Jalili）和阿亚图拉阿里雷扎·阿拉菲（Ayatollah Alireza Arafi）等高级神职人员和政治人物。
每个人都代表了该体系的不同支柱：军事权力、地区代理行动、战略水道控制、内部镇压和宗教合法性。
他们共同构成了分析师所说的一个碎片化但韧性十足的治理网络。
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德黑兰一条高速公路上方展示着描绘1979年以来伊朗最高领袖的广告牌：（从左至右）阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼（直至1989年）、阿里·哈梅内伊（直至2026年）和穆贾塔巴·哈梅内伊（现任）。伊朗于2026年3月9日纪念阿亚图拉穆贾塔巴·哈梅内伊接替其父成为最高领袖。（法新社/盖蒂图片社）
尽管存在内部分歧，伊朗领导层在一个核心目标上仍然保持一致：政权的生存。
库佩瓦塞尔描述了这种分裂：“有像阿拉奇、鲁哈尼和扎里夫这样更务实的精英。也有通常占上风的强硬派……但他们在一个问题上是一致的——政权应该生存并继续掌权。”
伊朗常驻联合国代表团未能及时回应置评请求。
埃弗拉特·拉赫特（Efrat Lachter）是福克斯新闻数字版国际事务和联合国记者。在X平台（原推特）关注她：@efratlachter。可将新闻线索发送至：efrat.lachter@fox.com。
Trump says US in Iran talks as analysts say IRGC holds real power | Fox News
Analysts say the IRGC has more control over Iran than ever, even as the state itself is described as weaker than ever before.
By Efrat Lachter
Fox News
Published March 24, 2026 3:08pm EDT
Fox News correspondent Lucas Tomlinson joins ‘Fox & Friends’ to report on indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran after President Donald Trump demanded the Strait of Hormuz be reopened.
“Nobody knows who to talk to,” President Donald Trump said Tuesday at the White House, describing what he portrayed as both chaos and opportunity inside Iran’s leadership. “But we’re actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly.”
His remarks come as the U.S. claims it is engaged in talks with a “top” Iranian figure, even as Tehran publicly denies negotiations are taking place.
The question now is not just whether talks are happening, but whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to deliver. With strikes on senior Iranian leadership and growing internal fractures, Iran appears to be operating less like a centralized theocracy and more like a wartime system run by overlapping power centers, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at its core.
Here’s who matters now.
[TRUMP’S MIDDLE EAST ENVOY REVEALS WHAT LED TO BREAKDOWN IN IRAN TALKS BEFORE OPERATION EPIC FURY]
A State Department Rewards for Justice poster offers up to $10 million for information on key leaders tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Asghar Hejazi, Yahya Rahim Safavi, Ali Larijani, Eskandar Momeni and Esmail Khatib.(State Department / Rewards for Justice)
The IRGC: The real power behind the state
Across intelligence assessments and recent reporting, one conclusion is consistent: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as the dominant force in Iran’s political system.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the current moment is accelerating a long-standing trend.
“No doubt both the 12-Day war and this current conflict have trimmed the commanding heights of the Islamic Republic’s political and military leadership,” he said. “But it has also expedited the trend lines inherent in Iranian politics, which is the dominance of the security forces and the ascendance of the IRGC.”
“Yes, there is more IRGC control over the state than ever before, but the state is weaker than ever before and more of a national security rump state than ever before,” he said.
“It shouldn’t particularly preoccupy Washington, who is and isn’t offering negotiations,” Ben Taleblu added, “The preeminent preoccupation of Washington has to be working toward a military win at a political win, and that does not come by working with the IRGC, but actually beating them on the battlefield and supporting the forces’s most arrayed against them in Iran, which are the Iranian people.”
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military personnel are walking along Enghelab (Revolution) Avenue as an Iranian Kheibar Surface-to-Surface missile is being unveiled during the Ela Beit Al-Moghaddas (Al-Aqsa Mosque) military rally in Tehran, Iran, on November 24, 2023. The IRGC is unveiling two new missiles during the rally.(Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The command room: Supreme National Security Council
If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the power in Iran, the Supreme National Security Council appears to be the mechanism through which that power is exercised.
The Supreme National Security Council is Iran’s top forum for coordinating military and foreign policy, bringing together senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and government officials under the authority of the supreme leader. It was established after the 1979 revolution and has played a central role in managing major crises, from nuclear negotiations to wartime operations.
Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, as secretary of the council, reinforcing its central role in coordinating military and political decisions, Reuters reported Tuesday.
A Middle Eastern official source with knowledge of the system described the structure:
“Right now, the power is in the hands of the IRGC,” the source said. “The Supreme National Security Council makes the decisions, of course, with the backing of the majority of IRGC commanders.”
A mourner holds a poster depicting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, the successor to his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officials and civilians killed during the campaign in Tehran, Iran, March 11, 2026.(Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)
Mojtabā Khamenei: The supreme leader in name
Formally, Iran’s system centers on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. But his actual grip on power remains uncertain.
Khamenei inherited the position’s sweeping authority following his father’s death, but “lacks the automatic authority enjoyed by his father,” the Middle Eastern official said.
Moreover, he has not appeared publicly since taking power and only has issued written statements, raising questions about both his health and his ability to govern, after reportedly being injured in the initial Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father and other senior Iranian leaders.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, suggested his role may currently be limited: “For the time being, [since Mojtaba has been injured], it seems he’s a hologram and not holding power. However, if Mojtaba recovers, he will be involved in ruling Iran. He is not just a figurehead. But anyhow, for the time being, the control of Iran is in the hands of the revolutionary guards.”
[WITH DOGS, DANCE AND UNCOVERED HAIR, IRANIANS DEFY ‘UNHOLY ALLIANCE’ OF SOCIALISTS, RADICALS: ‘HYPOCRITES!’]
Ghalibaf: The man at the center of Trump’s claim
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a public event in Iran in 2024(Hossein Beris / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)
Trump’s statement that he is speaking to a “top person” has focused attention on one name in particular: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
The White House is quietly exploring Ghalibaf as a potential interlocutor and even a possible future leader, Axios reported.
A former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and current parliament speaker, Ghalibaf represents a hybrid figure inside the system, bridging military credentials and political authority.
He was one of the key security figures involved in the crackdown on student protests in July 1999 and has run for president four times since 2005.
[IRAN WAR, 11 DAYS IN: US CONTROLS SKIES, OIL SURGES AND THE REGION BRACES FOR WHAT’S NEXT]
Ghalibaf is expected to meet U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the capital of Pakistan as early as the end of this week.
Ben Taleblu said: “Those who see the ascendants of someone like Ghalibaf, who is an IRGC veteran, having extended power outside his traditional civilian rule, have missed the decades of how personality, not profession, has been the driving force, has been a driving force in Iranian politics for the past few decades. I would also say those who worry about the IRGC background of the Supreme National Security Council are all that in Iran today, may have missed the fact that the past few Supreme National Security Council Secretaries, Shamkhani, Larijani, Ahmadian, all also had IRGC backgrounds.”
At the same time, Ghalibaf has publicly denied engaging in talks with the United States, and no direct confirmation of negotiations has been provided by either side.
Araqchi: The diplomat carrying messages
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister following their talks in Moscow on April 18, 2025.(Getty Images)
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi remains one of the most visible figures internationally.
If talks were to take place, Araqchi likely would be part of the Iranian delegation alongside Ghalibaf, Reuters reported.
But analysts caution that his role is limited. He may act as a channel for communication, but does not set policy independently.
Strategic decisions, particularly on war and negotiations, are still shaped by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader security establishment.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the head of the judiciary and Alireza Arafi, deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, attend the meeting of the interim leadership council of Iran in an unknown location, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Iran, March 1, 2026.(IRIB/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)
The wider power circle: generals, clerics and enforcers
Beyond the headline figures, a broader group of officials who continue to shape Iran’s direction can be identified.
These include Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Ahmad Vahidi, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and senior clerical and political figures such as Saeed Jalili and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.
Each represents a different pillar of the system: military power, regional proxy operations, control of strategic waterways, internal repression and religious legitimacy.
Together, they form what analysts describe as a fragmented but resilient governing network.
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A billboard depicting Iran’s supreme leaders since 1979: (L to R) Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini (until 1989), Ali Khamenei (until 2026), and Mojtaba Khamenei (incumbent) is displayed above a highway in Tehran on March 10, 2026. Iran marked the appointment of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father as its supreme leader on March 9, 2026.(AFP/Via Getty Images)
Despite internal divisions, Iran’s leadership remains united on one core objective: survival of the regime.
Kuperwasser described the split: “There are the more pragmatic elites, like Araghchi, Rouhani, and Zarif. There are also the hardliners who have usually held the upper hand … But they are united in one issue — that the regime should survive and stay in power.”
Iran’s U.N. mission did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication.
Efrat Lachter is a foreign correspondent for Fox News Digital covering international affairs and the United Nations. Follow her on X @efratlachter. Stories can be sent to efrat.lachter@fox.com.
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