Analysis by

[Aaron Blake]

2 hr ago

PUBLISHED Mar 23, 2026, 5:50 PM ET

Donald Trump The Middle East Tariffs

[See all topics]

Facebook Tweet[Email]Link Threads

Link Copied!

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday.

Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s recent reversal on his big red line for Iran is prompting some questions on what, exactly, is motivating his wartime decision-making.

On Saturday evening, Trump said Iran had 48 hours to either open up the Strait of Hormuz and unshackle the global economy or he would strike Iran’s biggest power plant. By Monday morning, he said he would give it five more days, citing improved negotiations with Tehran.

But Iran has denied any dialogue with Washington. And while there’s certainly reason to not take officials at their word, the diverging stories — and Trump’s own credibility problems — open the possibility that something else motivated him to back down. That includes possible fears that such a move could escalate the war and global economic pain.

Ad Feedback

Trump’s critics are calling it Trump’s latest TACO — an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

That’s difficult to prove, but the decision follows another undeniable Trump pattern: His announcements often seem conveniently tied to the open and close of financial markets.

Trump said he was giving Iran more time shortly before the markets were due to open Monday morning, on what was bound to be a pretty brutal day in light of Trump’s threats of escalation. Instead, it turned out to be a strong one.

And he’s repeatedly made these kinds of announcements at times that seem geared towards the markets — regardless of how substantive and lasting the declarations themselves turned out to be.

A major one was his “Liberation Day” global tariffs on April 2. The press conference was scheduled for 4 p.m. Eastern time, but after talking for a while, Trump announced the actual details shortly after markets closed at 4:30 p.m.

He also said the tariffs wouldn’t start until shortly after midnight on Saturday, April 5 — when markets would also be closed.

A week later, after a historically rough week for the stock market, Trump posted minutes after the markets opened at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, “BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well,” and “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!” The next day, after markets had slumped to their lowest level of the year, he announced a 90-day pause on nearly all tariffs over 10% — which then sent stocks to their best single day since 2008.

On October 10, a Friday, Trump announced 130% tariffs on China 20 minutes after the markets closed for the weekend (those tariffs would also go into effect on Saturday, November 1 — when markets would be closed).

On January 21, it was 20 minutes before markets opened that Trump announced during an overseas trip that he would not attempt to take Greenland using “excessive strength and force.” Stocks just had their worst day since October the day before, and the dollar had its worst day since August.

Trump, of course, did not invent this type of approach. Companies will often make announcements that could impact their stock either before or after market hours so investors can digest the news before making decisions. And both companies and governments also often try to bury bad news on Friday evenings in what are known as “news dumps.”

That term feels too trivial to describe the start of a war. But Trump did wait until after the markets closed on a Friday to announce his initial strikes in Iran — posting a video message confirming the attacks on Saturday, February 28 around 2:30 a.m. (Trump’s previous attacks on Iran back in June and his operation to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January also fell on weekends.)

And two weeks ago, on the afternoon of March 9, Trump told a reporter that the 10-day-old war was “very complete, pretty much.” Once the comments were reported, they immediately sent the struggling markets higher.

But after the markets closed, Trump had a very different message at a Republican gathering. He signaled there was still much to accomplish, saying, “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.” (Though it’s worth noting that Trump’s messaging surrounding the war has been consistently inconsistent.)

Fast forward two weeks, and Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay in his red line on reopening the strait, before the markets opened Monday, probably prevented another especially brutal day.

It also seems telling that there was still about 12 hours left for Trump to sus out just how serious Iran was about its purported interest in a deal. That might have been wise, given how much Trump has warned Iran can’t be trusted. Why not just wait a bit longer to make sure?

But now, Trump has conveniently delayed his own red line — as it happens, until after the markets are closed for the weekend.

Donald Trump The Middle East Tariffs

[See all topics]

Facebook Tweet[Email]Link Threads

Link Copied!

Ad Feedback