艾伦·布莱克分析
1小时11分钟前
发布于 2026年3月20日，美国东部时间下午2:52
唐纳德·特朗普总统3月18日在特拉华州多佛空军基地走向空军一号。
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/美联社
自特朗普总统对伊朗采取军事行动以来的近三周里，传统观点认为他的基本盘仍然支持他进行这场战争。
确实，特朗普的基本盘并没有大规模抛弃他——尤其是绝大多数“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）支持者表示他们支持这场战争。塔克·卡尔森、玛乔丽·泰勒·格林、梅根·凯利等有影响力人士的反对声音，并没有转化为共和党基本盘的广泛反对。
但是，特朗普已经疏远了他基本盘中的一些重要部分，并且他正冒着进一步疏远更多人的风险。
最近几天的一批新民调强化了这一点。
这些分析的焦点通常是自称支持MAGA的选民。在大多数民调中，约90%的MAGA选民支持这场战争。
但这并不太令人惊讶，因为这些人确实是特朗普政治运动的支持者。
当把范围扩大到所有共和党人和更广泛的2024年特朗普选民时，总统的支持率就没那么光鲜了。
例如，路透社-益普索（Reuters-Ipsos）的一项新民调显示，21%的共和党人不赞成这场战争。（总体而言，美国人反对率为59%，支持率为37%）
而雅虎新闻-优哥夫（Yahoo News-YouGov）上周末进行的一项民调显示，不仅17%的共和党人不赞成特朗普处理伊朗问题的方式，而且24%声称在2024年投票支持他的人也持同样态度。
对特朗普来说，他忠实的支持者仍在支持他是件好事。但这意味着，在16个月前投票支持他的人当中，仍有约四分之一的人不喜欢这场战争。而且，这些2024年特朗普选民中有15%表示他们“强烈”不赞成，这表明这对他们来说是个大问题。
从背景来看，这些数字并不太令人惊讶。过去一年，我们看到约五分之一或更多的共和党人在诸多问题上反对特朗普。
但这正是问题所在。共和党人可能需要留住这些选民，以避免2026年中期选举出现“蓝色浪潮”（民主党大胜）。而特朗普却不断给许多人理由感到幻灭。他并没有疏远大多数人，甚至没有接近疏远大多数人的程度，但这些人如果投票给民主党，甚至只是待在家里不投票，都可能严重削弱共和党赢得的席位数量。
一个思考这个问题的好方法是回顾伊拉克战争，那场战争在二十年前成为了共和党人的一个真正政治负担。
但直到2006年——战争开始三年后——共和党内部的反对声音才开始上升到18%左右。而伊朗战争的情况基本就是从这个比例开始的。
如果战争持续下去且成本增加，我们很可能看到支持率下降。
早期民调中另一个非常重要的方面是，特朗普在共和党基本盘中的支持相对广泛但不够深入。
例如，雅虎-优哥夫民调显示，只有约一半的共和党人（49%）和2024年特朗普选民（47%）表示他们“强烈”支持特朗普处理伊朗问题的方式。相比之下，约80%的民主党人（81%）和2024年卡玛拉·哈里斯选民（79%）表示强烈反对。
因此，总体反对声音更为强烈。约一半的共和党人和特朗普选民要么持批评态度，要么态度冷淡。
这表明他们可能不会永远站在特朗普一边。
一项新的“力量数字-维拉赛特”（Strength in Numbers-Verasight）民调指出，这些人可能在短期内开始对这场战争产生不满的最合理原因之一。
本周早些时候进行的这项民调发现，24%的共和党人认为伊朗战争不是对纳税人资金的良好使用。然后它问受访者，如果汽油价格每加仑上涨1美元，他们会怎么说。认为这不值得的人数上升到31%——近三分之一的共和党人。
那么，猜猜发生了什么：自战争开始以来，汽油价格实际上已经上涨了约1美元，而且看不到缓解的迹象。
再加上政府可能寻求的巨额资金（高达2000亿美元）用于这场战争，以及可能出现的地面部队部署和伤亡增加，这些对特朗普态度冷淡的支持者很容易加入战争批评者的行列。
只需要他们中的一些人脱离特朗普，这种情况就会开始看起来很像伊拉克战争成为共和党人一个大问题的时候。
Yes, the Iran war is a problem with Trump’s base
Analysis by Aaron Blake
1 hr 11 min ago
PUBLISHED Mar 20, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
President Donald Trump walks to Air Force One on March 18 at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
In the nearly three weeks since President Donald Trump struck Iran, conventional wisdom has set in that his base is sticking with him on the war.
It’s true that Trump’s base hasn’t ditched him in huge numbers — and an overwhelming number of MAGA supporters, especially, say they support the war. The opposition from the likes of Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Megyn Kelly and other influencers hasn’t translated to wide swaths of the GOP base itself.
But Trump has alienated some significant portions of his base, and he’s risking alienating more.
A fresh batch of polling in recent days reinforces that.
The focus of these analyses has often been self-described MAGA voters. In most polls, about 9 in 10 of them support the war.
But that shouldn’t be too surprising, given these people are quite literally the ones who identify themselves as supporters of Trump’s political movement.
When you expand the universe to all Republicans and, even more broadly, to 2024 Trump voters, the numbers aren’t nearly as sterling for the president.
A new Reuters-Ipsos poll, for instance, shows 21% of Republicans disapprove of the war. (Americans overall disapprove 59%-37%)
And a Yahoo News-YouGov poll conducted over the weekend showed not only did 17% of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, but so did 24% of people who say they voted for him in 2024.
It’s great for Trump that his devoted supporters are still on board. But that’s still about 1 in 4 people who turned out to vote for him just 16 months ago who don’t like this war. And 15% of those 2024 Trump voters say they “strongly” disapprove, suggesting this is a big deal to them.
In context, these numbers aren’t too surprising. We’ve seen around 1 in 5 Republicans or more opposing Trump on lots of issues over the past year.
But that’s also kind of the point here. These are voters that the GOP probably needs to keep in the fold to avoid a blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections. And here is Trump continually giving many of them reason to be disillusioned. He’s not alienating a majority or anywhere close to it, but it’s still numbers of people who, if they voted Democratic or even just stayed home, could put a huge dent in the number of seats Republicans win.
A good way to think about this is to look back on the Iraq war, which emerged as a real political liability for Republicans two decades ago.
But it wasn’t until 2006 — three years after the war began — that GOP opposition started to creep into the high-teens. That’s basically where we started with the Iran war.
And it’s quite possible we could see support fall, especially if the war drags on and the costs increase.
One of the other really significant facets of the early polling is that Trump’s support in the GOP base is relatively wide but not very deep.
That Yahoo-YouGov poll, for instance, shows only around half of Republicans (49%) and 2024 Trump voters (47%) said they “strongly” support the way Trump is handling Iran. That’s compared to around 8 in 10 Democrats (81%) and 2024 Kamala Harris voters (79%) who strongly disapprove.
So the opposition overall is much more passionate. And around half of Republicans and Trump voters are either critical or lukewarm.
Which suggests they might not be on Trump’s side forever.
A new Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll points to one of the most logical ways that some of them could begin to sour on the war in the near term.
The poll, which was conducted earlier this week, found that 24% of Republicans said the war in Iran wasn’t a good use of taxpayer dollars. Then it asked about what they’d say if the price of gas rose by $1 per gallon. The number saying it wasn’t worth the cost rose to 31% — nearly one-third of Republicans.
Well, guess what: The price of gas has already risen by about $1 since the war began, with no relief in sight.
Throw in the huge amount of money the administration may be seeking (as much as $200 billion) for the war, and the possibility of boots on the ground and increased casualties, and it’s easy to see these lukewarm Trump supporters joining the ranks of war critics.
And it wouldn’t take too many of them to break from Trump for this to start looking a lot like when the Iraq war became a really big problem for Republicans.
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