更新于：2026年3月19日 / 美国东部时间下午5:41 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
伊朗战争引发的能源价格飙升可能为美国石油公司带来巨额意外之财。
市场研究公司Rystad Energy估计，随着原油价格突破每桶100美元，美国页岩油生产商的销售额可能额外增加630亿美元。
该公司称，如果油价平均维持在每桶70美元（即上月中东敌对行动爆发前的大致水平），美国生产商全年自由现金流将达到990亿美元。而如果油价平均达到每桶100美元，这一数字将跃升至1620亿美元。有望受益的公司包括：英国石油公司（BP）、雪佛龙（Chevron）、康菲石油（ConocoPhillips）、埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）和壳牌（Shell）。
作为与美国汽油价格最直接相关的国际石油基准，布伦特原油在周四因该地区暴力升级迹象一度突破每桶119美元，最终收于108.65美元。
美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，美国是全球最大原油生产国，日产量1300万桶，日均出口约1100万桶，进口800万桶，成为净石油出口国。
自2月28日美以发动袭击后，伊朗实际上封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，导致油价飙升。通常情况下，全球约20%的石油和天然气供应需经此关键水道运输。
“需求破坏”风险
在上周的X平台（原推特）帖子中，特朗普总统吹嘘油价上涨对美国的好处：”美国目前是全球最大石油生产国，所以当油价上涨时，我们赚得盆满钵满。”
但Rystad Energy分析师托马斯·莱尔斯（Thomas Liles）告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，虽然美国石油生产商短期可能受益，但持续高油价带来的财务收益可能转瞬即逝，因为能源成本上升会波及消费者。
“这对美国生产商有利，但主要是短期的，”他表示，”一旦价格升至极高水平，生产商就会面临一个问题：好日子能持续多久？因为一旦达到某个价格，需求破坏就会显现。”
莱尔斯指出，如果油价跃升至每桶150美元，消费者可能会削减支出（占美国经济活动约三分之二）以抵消汽油及其他能源成本上涨。能源消费减少可能导致经济放缓，具体取决于冲突持续时间和油价反应。
“更大的问题是接下来会发生什么，如果混乱持续且价格继续上涨，所有这些都将使经济陷入螺旋式下滑，”他警告道。
目前油价仍远低于历史高点。根据FactSet数据，2008年7月住房危机冲击经济时，布伦特原油和美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油均达到约每桶145美元，经通胀调整后约合215美元。
美国石油生产商是否会增产？
行业高管们显然意识到了油价失控的风险。《华尔街日报》报道，本周早些时候与白宫官员会面时，能源公司领导人表达了对伊朗战争影响整体经济的担忧。
与此同时，Rystad分析师指出，尽管价格上涨有激励作用，美国能源公司仍不愿增产。
Rystad Energy分析师马修·伯恩斯坦（Matthew Bernstein）在报告中写道：”美国页岩生产商不会迅速提高产量，主要有两个原因——战略谨慎和缺乏可快速投产的已钻井未完井数量。”他补充说，只要伊朗冲突持续时间难以预测，国内石油企业就不太可能增产。
伯恩斯坦向哥伦比亚广播公司新闻解释，部分原因是维持每桶100美元以上的油价远非板上钉钉，而增产需要时间。
他还表示，美国石油公司近期已在波动价格中挣扎，在不确定环境下可能”不愿”增加产量。
“现在正是时候喘口气，从以每桶100美元出售石油中实现额外现金收益，”他总结道。
编辑：阿隆·谢特
美联社对本文亦有贡献。
U.S. oil producers could get $63 billion boost from high crude prices, analysis shows
Updated on: March 19, 2026 / 5:41 PM EDT / CBS News
Soaring energy prices due to the Iran war could provide a massive windfall for U.S. oil companies.
Rystad Energy, a market research firm, estimates that shale oil producers in the U.S. could earn an additional $63 billion in sales as prices soar past $100 a barrel.
If oil prices averaged $70 a barrel — their approximate level before the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East last month — U.S. producers would generate generate $99 billion in free cash flow for the year. At an average of $100 a barrel, that figure would jump to $162 billion, according to the firm. Among the companies poised to benefit: BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Shell.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark most directly linked to the price of gas in the U.S., topped $119 on Thursday after signs of escalating violence in the region, before ending the day at $108.65.
The U.S. is the world’s largest crude producer, with an output of 13 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It exports roughly 11 million barrels of oil daily, and imports 8 million, making the U.S. a net oil exporter.
Oil prices have soared as Iran effectively blocks the Strait of Hormuz following the February 28 attack by the U.S. and Israel. Normally, roughly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies pass through the key waterway.
“Demand destruction” risk
In a social media post on X last week, President Trump touted the benefits to the U.S. of higher oil prices. “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” he said in the post.
But while U.S. oil producers could benefit in the short-term, financial gains from sustained higher oil prices could be short-lived as higher energy costs wash over consumers, Rystad Energy analyst Thomas Liles told CBS News.
“It’s good for U.S. producers, but in the short-term primarily,” he said. “Once prices increase to very high levels, the question from a producer perspective is how long the good times can last, because once you get to a certain price, you see demand destruction.”
If oil prices jumped to $150 per barrel, consumers would likely cut their spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, to offset higher gasoline and other energy-related costs. A reduction in energy consumption, in turn, could lead to an economic slowdown depending on how long the conflict lasts and how oil prices react, Liles said.
“The bigger question is what happens next, and if the disruption continues and prices continue to rise, all this sends the economy into a tailspin,” he said.
For now, oil prices remain well below their all-time highs. That came in July 2008, as the housing crash was denting the economy, when both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, reached around $145 per barrel, or about $215 on an inflation-adjusted basis, according to data from FactSet.
Will U.S. oil producers boost production?
The risks of runaway oil costs are not lost on industry executives. In a meeting with White House officials earlier this week, energy company leaders expressed concern about the Iran war’s impact on the broader economy, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Meanwhile, U.S. energy companies are hesitant to boost oil production despite the incentive of higher prices, Rystad analysts note.
“U.S. shale producers are not poised to quickly ramp up production for two major reasons — strategic caution and a lack of drilled, uncompleted wells to quickly bring online,” Rystad Energy analyst Matthew Bernstein wrote in a report. Domestic oil players are unlikely to increase production so long as the duration of the Iran conflict remains hard to predict, he noted.
That’s in part because sustained oil prices above $100 a barrel are far from guaranteed, while ramping up production would take time, Bernstein told CBS News.
Bernstein added that U.S. oil companies have recently grappled with volatile prices and might not have “the willingness” to increase production in an uncertain environment.
“It’s the moment to take a breather and be able to realize some added cash benefits from selling your oil at $100 a barrel,” he said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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