2026年3月19日 / 美国东部时间下午2:31 / CBS新闻
伊朗战争的迷雾正模糊美联储对美国经济的判断。
周三，当美联储表示将维持利率稳定时，投资者感到不安。此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔多次强调，中东暴力升级带来的不确定性日益增加。在他下午的新闻发布会上，股市暴跌，周四继续下跌。
美国海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗告诉CBS新闻：”美联储陷入停滞。我们身处一个风险显著上升至极端的世界，经济面临的首要问题是霍尔木兹海峡何时重新开放——而这其实并非单纯的经济问题。”
全球约20%的石油供应经波斯湾的霍尔木兹海峡运输，而伊朗战争已使其基本瘫痪。
以下是美联储最新经济展望令投资者忧心的三大原因：
美联储看似陷入停滞
在周三的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔至少14次使用”我们不知道”这一表述，还四次提到”观望”策略。安永-帕特纳首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示：美联储因伊朗战争可能演变的不确定性，不愿提前调整货币政策。
美国SGH宏观顾问首席经济学家蒂姆·杜伊在给客户的报告中指出：”显然美联储被近期通胀数据打了个措手不及，又被伊朗冲突瘫痪，让美联储官员们像受惊的小鹿一样不知所措。”
美联储周三还发布了最新的《经济预测摘要》，这份季度报告概述了其成员对从通胀到经济增长等各方面的预期。预测显示，美联储官员预计2026年通胀率将略高于12月的预测。
与此同时，鲍威尔淡化了对这一预测的信心，强调伊朗战争导致油气价格飙升，央行面临诸多未知因素。
“我真正想强调的是，没人知道，”鲍威尔称，”经济影响可能更大，可能更小，可能小得多或大得多。我们只知道未知。”
今年降息或成泡影
经济学家指出，鲍威尔的言论暗示美联储可能不会在2026年下调基准利率。朗指出，会议前市场曾预期美联储今年会降息一至两次。
追踪美联储利率决策预期的CME FedWatch工具显示，今年无降息的概率接近75%。
“这是相当大的转变，”她补充道。
美国商业银行首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯指出，所谓的”点阵图”（显示每位美联储官员对未来联邦基金利率的预期）也表明，美联储成员对2026年可能出现的进一步降息信心不足。
七位美联储官员预测2026年不降息，七位支持降息一次，五位政策制定者认为会降息两次或更多。
“总体而言，中位数利率预期的点阵图凸显委员会严重分裂，”达科表示。
就业市场停滞不前
美联储的双重使命要求其在保持低通胀的同时确保充分就业。
周三，鲍威尔指出失业率仍相对较低，为4.4%，但补充称就业创造已放缓至停滞状态。”实际上，私营部门净就业创造为零，”他表示。
通常，美联储会降息以提振就业市场，因为更低的借贷成本会让企业更容易扩张和雇佣新员工。但央行正在平衡劳动力市场疲软与顽固通胀——通胀率仍高于美联储2%的年度目标，且因能源价格飙升预计将进一步上升。
对美国工人有利的是，裁员率处于历史低位。但专家指出，这并不意味着就业市场表现强劲。2月美国就业岗位减少9.2万个，这与经济学家预测的增长形成意外反差。
“美国正陷入招聘衰退，”朗表示，”美国人对此感到担忧和沮丧——现在找工作真的很难。”
编辑：阿兰·谢特
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/impact-of-rising-fuel-costs-on-feds-interest-rate-decision/
3 reasons the Federal Reserve’s interest rate pause is worrying investors
March 19, 2026 / 2:31 PM EDT / CBS News
The fog from the Iran war is obscuring the Federal Reserve’s view of the U.S. economy.
Investors were rattled on Wednesday, when the central bank said it is holding interest rates steady, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly underlined the mounting uncertainty caused by the escalating Middle East violence. Stocks slumped during his afternoon press conference, and have continued to drop on Thursday.
“The Fed is frozen,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told CBS News. “We’re in this world where clearly the risks are elevated to the extreme, and the No. 1 question for the economy is when does the Strait of Hormuz reopen — and that isn’t really an economic question.”
About 20% of the world’s oil supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, which has been effectively paralyzed by the Iran war.
Here are three reasons the Fed’s latest economic outlook is causing investors to fret.
The Fed looks frozen
During Wednesday’s press conference, Powell used the phrase “we don’t know” at least 14 times and said “wait-and-see” another four times. The upshot, according to EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco: The Fed doesn’t want to preemptively adjust monetary policy given the roiling uncertainties around how the Iran war could evolve.
“It seems clear that the Fed was blindsided by recent inflation data and paralyzed by the Iran conflict, leaving [Fed] participants caught like deer in the headlights,” Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, told clients in a report.
The Fed on Wednesday also released its latest Summary of Economic Projections, a quarterly report that outlines its members’ expectations for everything from inflation to economic growth. The forecast shows that Fed officials expect inflation to be slightly hotter in 2026 than in their December forecast.
At the same time, Powell downplayed his confidence in that outlook, highlighting the unknowns now facing the central bank as oil and gas prices surge due to the Iran war.
“The thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows,” Powell said. “The economic effect could be bigger, they could be smaller, they could be much smaller or much bigger. We just don’t know.”
Rate cuts may be off the table this year
Powell’s remarks suggest the Fed may opt against lowering its benchmark interest rate in 2026, economists noted. Before the meeting, the Fed had been expected to cut rates once or even twice this year, Long noted.
Now, CME FedWatch, which tracks expectations for the Fed’s rate decisions, shows an almost 75% probability of no rate cuts this year.
“That’s a pretty big shift,” she added.
The so-called “dot plot” — a chart that shows where each Fed official expects the federal funds rate will be in the near future — also signals that Fed members are less confident that additional rate cuts could occur in 2026, noted Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
Seven Fed officials penciled in no rate cuts in 2026, while seven support one, and five policymakers predict two or more.
“Overall, the dot plot of median rate expectations highlights a deeply divided committee,” Daco said.
The job market has stalled
The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate requires it to keep inflation low while also ensuring full employment.
On Wednesday, Powell noted that the unemployment rate remains relatively low, at 4.4%, but added that job creation has slowed to a standstill. “Effectively, there is zero net job creation in the private sector,” he said.
Typically, the Fed cuts interest rates to bolster the job market because lower borrowing costs make it cheaper for businesses to expand and hire new workers. But the central bank is balancing labor market weakness with stubborn inflation, which has remained above the Fed’s annual 2% annual target and which is expected to rise because of surging energy prices.
A plus for U.S. workers is that layoffs remain low by historical standards. Still, that doesn’t mean the job market is humming, experts noted. The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs in February, an unexpected setback after economists had forecast a gain.
“The United States is in a hiring recession,” Long said. “Americans are worried and frustrated about it — it’s really hard to get a job right now.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/impact-of-rising-fuel-costs-on-feds-interest-rate-decision/
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