发布时间：2026年3月17日，美国东部时间下午4:11 / 来源：CNN政治新闻
作者：[马歇尔·科恩]
更新时间：1小时42分钟前
更新日期：2026年3月17日，美国东部时间下午5:44
允许用户交易现实世界事件结果的美国监管预测市场平台Kalshi人气飙升，凸显了公众对基于事件的金融市场和结果预测的日益浓厚兴趣。
Cheng Xin/Getty Images
亚利桑那州总检察长对一家主要预测市场公司提起美国首例刑事指控，指控Kalshi违反州法律经营非法赌博业务。
周二在马里科帕县高等法院提起的刑事诉讼，是各州、预测市场网站与联邦政府之间就该行业监管方式展开的持续斗争中的重大升级。
亚利桑那州总检察长克里斯·梅斯表示，提起刑事指控是有必要的，因为在她看来，Kalshi提供的是赌博而非期货合约，因此需要州政府批准才能运营。
“Kalshi可能将自己标榜为‘预测市场’，但实际上它正在经营非法赌博业务，并就亚利桑那州选举接受投注，这两项行为均违反了亚利桑那州法律，”民主党人梅斯在一份声明中表示，“任何公司都不能自行决定遵守哪些法律。”
预测市场近几个月迅速崛起，据追踪交易量的Dune Analytics称，交易员每周在Kalshi和Polymarket等网站上的投入约达50亿美元。伊朗战争“死亡市场”争议以及对内幕交易的担忧，推动了该行业的关注度飙升。
预测市场网站允许用户投注从选举、体育、商业、娱乐，甚至不同城市的每日高温或每年麻疹病例数量等一切事件。
Kalshi因在亚利桑那州接受各类体育赛事和选举投注而面临20项轻罪指控，但该公司否认存在不当行为。（CNN与Kalshi有合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件，但编辑员工不得参与预测市场交易。）
Kalshi发言人伊丽莎白·戴安娜在给CNN的声明中表示，此案“毫无根据”，并声称预测市场只能由联邦政府监管，这与美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的立场一致。
“像亚利桑那州这样的州希望对全国性金融交易所进行单独监管，并正在想尽一切办法这么做，”戴安娜补充说，Kalshi的市场“与体育博彩公司和赌场提供的服务不同”，“不应受各州不一致法律的拼凑监管。”
Kalshi在美国运营并获得了CFTC的监管批准。该行业的另一家主要参与者Polymarket也获得了批准，但其美国网站尚未全面运营，因此其大部分市场位于境外且不受监管。
Polymarket目前未面临任何刑事指控。
亚利桑那州的诉讼特别提及Kalshi的选举相关市场，自2024年总统大选以来，这些市场的受欢迎程度不断提升。
例如，在得克萨斯州美国参议院竞选中，关于谁将成为共和党候选人的投注金额在Kalshi超过1000万美元，在Polymarket超过1200万美元。这场竞选将于5月举行决选，对阵现任参议员约翰·科宁和得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿。
拜登政府时期的CFTC于2024年启动了一项规则制定程序，旨在禁止与选举相关的预测市场。然而，联邦上诉法院后来允许Kalshi提供选举市场，而特朗普任命的CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格今年早些时候撤回了该机构提出的禁令。
前CFTC总法律顾问罗伯特·施瓦茨周二在X平台上发帖称，亚利桑那州的指控凸显了为何预测市场监管不应由“无序的各州诉讼”决定。
施瓦茨曾于2011年至2025年在CFTC工作，他还表示，如果亚利桑那州的诉讼成功，该机构监管该行业的能力可能会受到阻碍。
特朗普任命的CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格周二下午在社交媒体上抨击了亚利桑那州的诉讼。
“这是一起管辖权纠纷，作为刑事诉讼完全不合适，”塞利格表示，“CFTC正在密切关注此事并评估其选择。”
本文已更新以包含更多最新进展。
Arizona files landmark criminal charges against prediction market Kalshi
Published Mar 17, 2026, 4:11 PM ET / Source: CNN Politics
By [Marshall Cohen]
Updated 1 hr 42 min ago
Updated Mar 17, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, has surged in popularity, highlighting growing public interest in event-based financial markets and outcome forecasting.
Cheng Xin/Getty Images
Arizona’s attorney general has filed the first-ever criminal charges in the US against a major prediction market company, accusing Kalshi of running an illegal gambling operation in violation of state law.
The criminal case, filed Tuesday in Maricopa County Superior Court, is a serious escalation in the ongoing battle between states, prediction market sites and the federal government, over how the industry should be regulated.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes said the criminal charges were warranted because, in her view, Kalshi offers gambling, not futures contracts, and therefore would need state approval to operate.
“Kalshi may brand itself as a ‘prediction market,’ but what it’s actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law,” Mayes, a Democrat, said in a statement. “No company gets to decide for itself which laws to follow.”
Prediction markets have exploded in recent months, and traders now spend about $5 billion each week on websites like Kalshi and Polymarket, according to Dune Analytics, which tracks trading volumes. Interest in the industry has spiked after controversies involving Iran war “death markets” and concerns about insider trading.
Prediction market sites let users wager on everything from elections to sports, business, entertainment, even the daily high temperature in various cities or the number of measles cases per year.
Kalshi, which faces 20 misdemeanor counts for accepting bets on various sporting events and elections in Arizona, denies wrongdoing. (CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events, but editorial employees are prohibited from participating in prediction markets.)
A spokeswoman for Kalshi, Elisabeth Diana, said in a statement to CNN that the case is “paper-thin” and claimed prediction markets can only be regulated by the federal government, echoing the position of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
“States like Arizona want to individually regulate a nationwide financial exchange, and are trying every trick in the book to do it,” Diana said, adding that the markets on Kalshi are “different from what sportsbooks and casinos offer” and “should not be overseen by a patchwork of inconsistent state laws.”
Kalshi operates in the US with regulatory approval from the CFTC. The other major player in the industry, Polymarket, is also approved but its US site isn’t fully operational yet, so most of its markets are offshore and unregulated.
Polymarket is not facing any criminal charges.
The Arizona case specifically mentions Kalshi’s election-related markets, which have increased in popularity since the 2024 presidential contest.
For instance, more than $10 million has been wagered on Kalshi, and more than $12 million on Polymarket, over who will be the Republican nominee in Texas’ US Senate race. That race is heading to a runoff in May, between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The Biden-era CFTC initiated a rulemaking process in 2024 to prohibit election-related prediction markets. However, a federal appeals court later allowed Kalshi to offer election markets and the Trump-appointed CFTC chair, Michael Selig, withdrew the agency’s proposed ban earlier this year.
Former CFTC general counsel Robert Schwartz posted on X Tuesday that the Arizona charges highlighted why regulations about prediction markets shouldn’t be decided by “disorderly state by state litigation.”
Schwartz, who worked at the CFTC from 2011 to 2025, also said the agency’s ability to regulate the industry could be hampered if the Arizona case succeeds.
CFTC chairman Michael Selig, a Trump appointee, blasted the Arizona case in a social media post Tuesday afternoon.
“This is a jurisdictional dispute and entirely inappropriate as a criminal prosecution,” Selig said. “The CFTC is watching this closely and evaluating its options.”
This article has been updated with additional developments.
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