2026年3月16日 / 美国东部时间上午5:00 / CBS新闻
渴望更低借贷成本的美国人可能还需要长时间等待。
伊朗战争正使美联储的政策前景变得复杂，美联储将于3月18日召开下次利率决策会议。经济学家此前预测美联储将在周三维持基准利率稳定，但许多人曾预计央行在6月的下次会议上会降息。
中东冲突引发的石油和天然气价格飙升，正迫使经济学家重新审视其预测。华尔街分析师表示，能源价格上涨可能波及整个经济，推高运输成本、食品价格和公用事业费用。
通胀上升的阴影给政策制定者带来了难题：他们既要将通胀逐步降至美联储2%的年度目标，又要支撑显示出疲态的劳动力市场。
3月13日，美联储首选的通胀指标——个人消费支出指数（PCE）显示，1月消费者价格小幅上升，这表明即使在伊朗战争对能源行业产生影响之前，成本就已持续上升。
周三会议的预期
根据基于30天联邦基金期货价格的CME FedWatch工具，美联储在3月18日维持基准利率在3.5%至3.75%区间的可能性为99%。
CME FedWatch表示，美联储在4月30日会议上维持当前利率区间的可能性为95%，6月会议维持稳定的可能性为77%。一个月前，这两个概率分别为70%和31%。
2026年不会降息——甚至可能加息？
自伊朗战争爆发以来，能源价格上涨已促使众多预测机构改写其利率预测，部分经济学家认为美联储今年可能不会降息。
安永-帕特农组织首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科在给投资者的报告中表示：“鉴于我们对整体和核心PCE通胀的更高预测，我们将基准预测调整为2026年仅降息一次，每次0.25个百分点，可能在12月，但完全有可能美联储今年不会降息。”
一些分析师甚至认为美联储可能在2026年加息以应对价格上涨。
加息是美联储对抗通胀螺旋上升的最有力武器，因为更高的借贷成本会增加企业和消费者的贷款负担，从而抑制经济活动。
金融咨询公司Carson Group首席宏观策略师桑·瓦尔加什在电子邮件中表示：“对美联储而言，本已头疼的问题将变得更加棘手，2026年美联储可能不会降息，甚至可能在今年晚些时候开始讨论加息。”
就业市场亮黄灯
美联储还面临美国就业增长放缓的挑战，雇主在2月削减了92,000个岗位。这标志着劳动力市场意外下滑，因为经济学家曾预计上月就业增长会增加。
PNC经济学家格斯·福彻在给客户的研究报告中表示：“过去几年就业市场已趋软，通胀高于美联储预期，且短期内还将进一步上升。”
他补充道：“这可能给央行带来两难境地——降息以支持就业市场，通胀可能进一步走高；或维持当前利率，却面临劳动力市场进一步疲软的风险。”
这些相互矛盾的因素也可能让下一任美联储主席的工作更加复杂。特朗普总统在1月提名前美联储官员凯文·沃什接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任央行行长。特朗普多次指责鲍威尔降息行动过于谨慎，鲍威尔将于5月卸任。
但沃什还需参议院确认，他可能在通胀压力加剧的情况下接管美联储，这会使他的工作更具挑战性。
安永-帕特农组织的达科表示：“如果且当凯文·沃什被确认担任美联储主席，他首先需要证明其政策观点基于经济基本面而非政治考量。”
编辑：阿兰·舍特
Iran war is making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
March 16, 2026 / 5:00 AM EDT / CBS News
Americans eager for lower borrowing costs may have a long wait ahead of them.
The Iran war is complicating the picture for the Federal Reserve, which is set to meet on March 18 for its next interest rate decision. Economists had predicted the Fed would hold its benchmark rate steady on Wednesday, but many had penciled in a cut at the central bank’s next meeting in June.
Soaring oil and gas prices, sparked by the conflict in the Middle East, now have economists tearing up their forecasts. Higher energy prices could ripple through the economy, pushing up transportation costs, food prices and utilities, according to Wall Street analysts.
The specter of higher inflation poses a conundrum for policymakers, who face the challenge of ratcheting down inflation toward the Fed’s 2% annual target while also propping up a labor market that is showing signs of fatigue.
On March 13, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditures index — showed that consumer prices crept higher in January, a sign that costs continued to rise even before the Iran war’s impact on the energy sector.
What to expect on Wednesday
There’s a 99% probability that the Fed will hold its benchmark rate steady in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% on March 18, according to CME FedWatch, which bases its forecast on 30-Day Fed funds futures prices.
There’s now a 95% probability the Fed maintains the current range at its April 30 meeting and a 77% likelihood that it will hold steady in June, CME FedWatch says. A month ago, those probabilities stood at 70% and 31%, respectively.
No cuts in 2026 — or even a hike?
Rising energy prices since the outbreak of the Iran war have led a number of forecasters to rewrite their interest rate predictions, with some economists saying there’s a chance the Fed won’t make cuts this year.
“Given our higher headline and core PCE inflation forecast, we have revised our baseline to show only one 0.25-percentage-point rate cut in 2026, likely in December, but it is entirely plausible that the Fed won’t deliver any rate cuts this year,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco told investors in a report.
A few analysts even think the Fed could boost interest rates in 2026 to counter rising prices.
Rate hikes are the Fed’s most potent weapon against spiraling inflation. That’s because higher borrowing costs tamp down economic activity by making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to take out loans.
“An already large headache for the Federal Reserve is going to turn into an even larger one, and it’s likely the Fed will not cut rates in 2026 and may even start talking about rate hikes later this year,” said Son Varghese, chief macro strategist at financial advisory firm Carson Group, in an email.
Jobs flashing yellow
The Fed is also grappling with weaker hiring across the U.S., with employers shedding 92,000 jobs in February. That marked an unexpected downturn for the labor market as economists had expected an increase in job growth last month.
“The job market has softened over the past few years, and inflation is running higher than the Fed would like and will pick up even more in the near term,” PNC economist Gus Faucher told clients in a research note.
He added, “This could create a dilemma for the central bank — cut the fed funds rate to support the labor market and inflation could move even higher, or keep the fed funds rate where it is and risk further weakness in the labor market.”
These crosscurrents could also complicate life for the next Fed chief. President Trump in January nominated former Fed official Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the central bank chair. Powell, who Mr. Trump has repeatedly admonished for what he sees as the Fed’s excessive caution in bringing down interest rates, is set to step down from his role in May.
But Warsh, who must still be confirmed by the Senate, could end up stepping in to lead the Fed amid mounting inflationary pressures, complicating his job.
“If and when Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed chair, he will first need to demonstrate that his policy views are grounded in economic fundamentals rather than political considerations,” EY-Parthenon’s Daco said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
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