2026年3月12日 / 美国东部时间上午7:14 / 美联社
去年，凯文·凯特尔（Kevin Ketels）购买了一辆2026款雪佛兰电动开拓者（Chevrolet Blazer）时，他并没有考虑汽油成本。他只是觉得电动汽车更好，“想成为未来的一部分”。如今，伊朗战争导致加油站价格飙升，这位底特律男子庆幸自己不再为那辆11岁的汽油动力SUV加油。
韦恩州立大学全球供应链管理助理教授、55岁的凯特尔表示：“电价可能会上涨，但涨幅和速度都远不及汽油。”
专家表示，长期高油价可能会引发一些人对电动汽车的兴趣和购买欲，尤其是如果车主认为电价不会受到危机影响的话。
但消费者购买电动汽车的决定受到诸多因素影响——电价也是其中之一。
与电动汽车车主相比，燃油车车主更容易受到全球冲突导致的油价波动影响。美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，本周全国普通汽油平均价格为每加仑3.57美元，较一个月前的2.94美元上涨。
加州大学戴维斯分校经济学教授埃里希·缪勒格（Erich Muehlegger）表示：“居民电价受到监管，波动性远低于汽油价格。因此，电动汽车车主在很大程度上不受油价冲击的影响。”
但专家称，由于多种原因，全国电价一直在上涨，其中包括新数据中心激增的电力需求。
“这是一场通胀事件，”Bracewell政策解决小组负责人霍尔特·爱德华兹（Holt Edwards）在谈及战争时表示，“这是电价上涨的驱动因素吗？我认为可能不是，但它肯定是一个促成因素。”
石油和天然气冲突在多大程度上会影响电力行业，还有待观察。
专家表示，对于电动汽车车主使用的电力成本，很大程度上取决于当地电网的能源结构中电力来源的构成。
由于监管机构每年设定居民电价，大多数家庭不会受到天然气成本月度变化的影响。尽管专家称天然气价格上涨会增加发电成本，但天然气价格近期的涨幅和速度都不及油价。
天然气只是包括煤炭、核能和可再生能源在内的众多电网能源中的一种。
哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心能源专家皮耶保罗·卡佐拉（Pierpaolo Cazzola）表示：“能源成本因使用的能源类型及其发电成本而异。在美国，能源成本的波动幅度比其他地方要小。”
专家们表示，持续的战争可能会在未来影响电费支出。他们称，这更凸显了各国向清洁能源转型的必要性。
能源智库Ember的分析师尤安·格雷厄姆（Euan Graham）表示：“清洁能源与电气化的结合能提供最大的能源安全。”
56岁的伊利诺伊州埃文斯顿软件开发商迈克尔·B·克莱因（Michael B. Klein）过去8年一直驾驶电动汽车，以节省燃油成本并出于环保考虑。
驾驶雪佛兰Bolt的克莱因表示：“每次电网效率提升——尤其是可再生能源的加入——我都能从中受益，无论油价如何变化。”“燃气发动机的效率可以提升，但你必须购买新车才能享受到这种好处。”
几位专家表示，高汽油价格是推动电动汽车销售的强劲动力，尤其是如果高油价持续的话。在此期间，消费者也会考虑更省油的混合动力汽车。
汽车购物资源网站Edmunds分析了3月2日（伊朗战争爆发后）开始的一周内的消费者购物数据。他们发现，混合动力车、插电式混合动力车和纯电动汽车在该网站的车辆研究活动中占比22.4%，较前一周的20.7%有所上升。分析师还回顾了2022年上一次全国性燃油价格大幅上涨的情况，发现当时电动汽车的关注度也大幅上升。
但专家称，这是否意味着更多人会购买电动汽车，取决于买家是否预期不仅现在能节省成本，未来也能持续节省。
格雷厄姆表示，电动汽车需求突然增加可能会推高价格，这增加了复杂性。
“我认为真正的转折点将是这是否会促使各国政府调整电动汽车相关的税收和关税政策，”格雷厄姆说，这样做有助于减少对化石燃料的依赖。
的确如此。
环境保护基金律师彼得·扎尔扎尔（Peter Zalzal）表示，即使没有政府税收抵免，购买电动汽车的车主在车辆使用周期内也能节省“相当可观”的燃油费用。
“我们谈论的是数千美元的节省，”扎尔扎尔说，“随着汽油价格上涨，这些节省只会更多。燃油成本是车辆总成本的一大组成部分，油价上涨对人们影响重大。”
然而，新电动汽车的前期成本仍然高于燃油车。汽车购买资源网站Kelley Blue Book的数据显示，上个月新电动汽车平均售价为55,300美元，而整体新车平均售价为49,353美元。一些专家还对电动汽车表达了国家安全担忧，因为中国在电动汽车供应链的关键环节占据主导地位。
凯特尔教授表示，他认为电动汽车和可再生能源应该成为个人和美国的战略优先事项，因为它们可以在国内生产，“我们不会面临价格波动和这些担忧”。
但由于联邦政府撤回了对两者的许多激励措施，“这使我们在全球处于不利地位，”凯特尔说，“我认为撤回这些激励措施并攻击可持续能源行业是一个可怕的错误，而这场战争只是让这一点更加明显。”
- 伊朗
- 汽油价格
美国人对油价上涨的反应
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/americans-react-to-rising-gas-prices-very-frustrating/
美国人对油价上涨的反应：“非常令人沮丧”
(02:10)
Will Iran war-linked leap in gas prices boost EV sales?
March 12, 2026 / 7:14 AM EDT / AP
When Kevin Ketels bought an electric 2026 Chevrolet Blazer last year, he wasn’t thinking about the cost of gas. He just thought EVs were better and “wanted to be part of the future.” Now that the Iran war is spiking prices at the pump, the Detroit man is happy he’s no longer filling up his 11-year-old gas-powered SUV.
“Electricity can go up, but it won’t go up nearly as much as gas will and it won’t go up nearly as fast, either,” said Ketels, 55, an assistant professor of global supply chain management at Wayne State University.
Experts say prolonged high gas prices may drive some EV interest and sales, especially if drivers assume their electricity prices won’t be affected by the crises.
But many factors influence consumer EV purchases – and electricity rates.
Drivers of gas-powered vehicles are much more vulnerable to fluctuating prices that result from global conflict than those who charge their cars. The national average for a gallon of regular gas this week was $3.57, up from $2.94 a month ago, according to AAA.
Meanwhile, “residential electricity prices are regulated and are much less volatile than gasoline prices,” said University of California, Davis economics professor Erich Muehlegger. “As a result, EV owners are largely unaffected by oil price shocks.”
But experts say electricity prices have been increasing nationally for a variety of reasons, including surging power demand from new data centers.
“This is an inflationary event,” Holt Edwards, principal in Bracewell’s Policy Resolution Group, said of the war. “Is this the driver in electricity prices? I think probably not. But it’s certainly a contributing factor.”
To what extent oil and gas conflicts could translate to the electricity sector is yet to be seen.
When it comes to the electricity an EV owner is tapping, much of the cost depends on which sources of electricity are in a local grid’s power mix, experts say.
Because regulators set residential electricity prices annually, most households are sheltered from month-to-month changes in natural gas costs. Though experts say higher natural gas prices can increase the cost of generating electricity, natural gas prices haven’t risen as quickly or as much as oil prices have recently.
Those are just two of many energy sources – including coal, nuclear and renewables – that power the electric grid.
“The energy component varies depending on the energy you’re using and the price of the energy that you’re using to generate electricity,” said Pierpaolo Cazzola, an energy expert at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “What happens is that in the U.S., the variation of the price of the energy component is smaller than it is elsewhere.”
The experts said persistent war could affect electricity bills in the future. And that is all the more reason for countries to transition to clean power, they said.
“Clean power and electrification combined is what provides the most security,” said Euan Graham, an analyst at energy think tank Ember.
Michael B. Klein, a 56-year-old software developer in Evanston, Illinois, has driven EVs for the past eight years to save on fuel costs and because of environmental concerns.
Every time electrical grid efficiency improves – especially as renewables are added – “I get that benefit no matter what,” said Klein, who drives a Chevy Bolt. “They can improve the efficiency of gas engines, but you have to get a new car in order to reap the benefit of that.”
Several experts say high gasoline prices are a strong driver of EV sales, particularly if high prices persist. Drivers also consider more gasoline-efficient hybrid vehicles during these times.
Car-shopping resource Edmunds analyzed consumer shopping data for the week starting March 2, after the Iran war had begun. They found that interest in hybrids, plug-in hybrids and battery EVs accounted for 22.4% of all vehicle research activity on their site that week, up from 20.7% the previous week. Analysts also looked back at the last major nationwide fuel price surges in 2022 and saw that consideration of electrified vehicles consideration rose sharply then, too.
But whether this means more EV purchases depends on whether buyers expect to save not just now but in the future, experts say.
Adding to the complexity: A sudden increase in EV demand could drive up prices, Graham said.
“I think the real step change would be in whether this causes governments to shift tax, tariff policies around EVs,” Graham said. Doing so would help reduce fossil fuel dependence, he said.
Pretty much.
People who buy EVs have a “really substantial” gas savings over the life of their vehicles even without government tax credits, said Peter Zalzal, an attorney with Environmental Defense Fund.
“We’re talking about thousands and thousands of dollars” in savings, Zalzal said. “And as gas prices increase, those savings are only greater. Fuel costs are a big piece of overall vehicle costs, and increases in fuel prices have significant impacts on people.”
However, the upfront cost of a new EV is still more than that of a gasoline-powered vehicle; new EVs sold for an average of $55,300 last month, while new vehicles overall sold for an average $49,353, according to auto-buying resource Kelley Blue Book. Some experts also expressed national security concerns about EVs because China dominates significant parts of the EV supply chain.
Ketels, the EV owner and professor, said he believes EVs and renewable energy should be a strategic priority for individuals and the U.S. because they could be produced domestically “and we don’t have those fluctuations and those worries.”
But because the federal government has withdrawn many incentives for both, “it puts us at a disadvantage globally,” Ketels said. “I think it’s been a terrible mistake to withdraw these incentives and to attack the sustainable energy industry,” and the war “is just making it that much more obvious.”
In:
- Iran
- Gas Prices
Americans react to rising gas prices
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/americans-react-to-rising-gas-prices-very-frustrating/
Americans react to rising gas prices: “Very frustrating”
(02:10)
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