2026年3月12日 / 美国东部时间上午6:01 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
哥伦比亚广播公司新闻报道，一位中东问题分析师表示，美国和以色列低估了伊朗的实力，伊朗政权崩溃的可能性不大，他同时警告称伊朗现在可能更坚定地寻求核武器。
周二，大西洋理事会（一个无党派智库）的非驻会研究员丹尼·西特林诺维茨在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示，他认为政权更迭的可能性”非常渺茫”，尤其是在不使用地面部队的情况下——他称这将是一个可能带来灾难性后果的冒险。
“我们的期望太高了，”他说，”如果有人认为仅靠空袭就能推翻这个政权，尽管它很虚弱，但仍然非常强大，我认为我们应该三思。”
前最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊的次子穆贾塔巴·侯赛尼·哈梅内伊多年来一直幕后低调运作，在2月28日德黑兰首次空袭中其父遇袭身亡后，他被任命为伊朗新最高领袖。
西特林诺维茨表示，如果战争今天结束，他不会认为这是美国的胜利，”因为这个政权不会投降，一百万年内都不会。”
“只要这个政权存在，就不会无条件投降，”他补充说，政权不会放弃其导弹或核能力。
他称新最高领袖可能反而会”跨过制造核弹的最后界限”。西特林诺维茨表示，已故的阿亚图拉”不敢跨越这条红线”，尽管他曾推动铀浓缩活动。
“他们没有其他手段来威慑以色列或美国未来对其发动攻击，”他说，”他们将不得不寻找其他办法。而这办法可能就是核弹。”
西特林诺维茨曾在以色列军事情报部门服役25年，他还质疑美国和以色列对伊朗打击行动及撤军策略的规划，认为这基于一个”错误假设”——即如果阿里·哈梅内伊被杀，政权就会崩溃。
“所有伊朗问题专家都知道情况并非如此，这个体制远比个人强大得多，”他说，”但要说服政府中的人相信这一点非常困难。”
“这就是为什么现在很难想象这场战争将如何结束，”他补充道，称”战略中存在重大问题”。
特朗普总统曾提出战争可能结束的时间线从数周到”很快”不等。
周一，特朗普表示，美国”在很多方面已经取得胜利，但还不够。我们比以往任何时候都更坚定地要取得最终胜利，彻底消除这个长期存在的威胁。”
周三被问及如果最高领袖仍是哈梅内伊之子时是否会宣布胜利，特朗普回应称：”我不想对此评论。”
海湾国家也卷入了这场战争，伊朗对其发动导弹和无人机袭击。西特林诺维茨称，这可能是伊朗的一种策略，目的是向特朗普政府和以色列施压以结束军事行动。
“对他们而言，海湾国家是链条中最薄弱的环节，因为他们认为可以向其施压，”他说，”这些国家缺乏韧性。这就是为什么他们最终会向特朗普施压以停止战争。顺便说一句，我不确定他们的想法错了。”
Iran won’t surrender “in a million years,” analyst says, warning regime could push for nuclear weapons
March 12, 2026 / 6:01 AM EDT / CBS News
The U.S. and Israel underestimated Iran’s capabilities and it’s unlikely the regime will collapse, according to a Middle East analyst, who warned that Iran could now be more determined to obtain nuclear weapons.
In an interview with CBS News on Tuesday, Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan think tank, said he believes the chances of regime change are “very slim,” especially without the use of ground troops — which would be a potentially disastrous gambit, he said.
“We had our hopes too high,” he said. “If somebody thinks that by air campaign, you can topple this regime, despite the fact that it’s weak, but it’s still very strong, I think we should think twice.”
Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, the second son of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has operated quietly behind the scenes for years, was named Iran’s new supreme leader after his father was killed during the initial airstrikes on Tehran on Feb. 28.
Citrinowicz said that if the war ended today, he would not consider it a victory for the U.S. “because the regime is not going to capitulate, not in a million years.”
“As long as this regime is there, [there will be] no unconditional surrender,” he said, adding that the regime is not going to give up its missile or nuclear capacity.
He said the new supreme leader could instead “cross the Rubicon towards a nuclear bomb.” According to Citrinowicz, the late ayatollah “was afraid to cross that threshold,” though he pushed to enrich uranium.
“They don’t have anything else that can deter Israel or U.S. to attack them in the future,” he said. “They will have to find something else. And the something else might be a nuclear bomb.”
Citrinowicz, who served for 25 years with Israeli military intelligence, also questioned the U.S. and Israel’s planning of the strikes on Iran and the exit strategy, arguing it was based on a “flawed assumption” that the regime would collapse if Ali Khamenei was killed.
“All the Iranian experts knew that it’s not going to be the case, that this institution is much more stronger than the human being,” he said. “But it was very hard to convince those in [the] administration.”
“This is why it’s very hard to think now how this war is going to end,” he added, saying there are “major problems in the strategy.”
President Trump has offered shifting timelines for when the war could end, ranging from weeks to “very soon.”
On Monday, Mr. Trump said the U.S. has “already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough. We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long running danger, once and for all.”
When asked Wednesday if he could declare victory if the supreme leader remains the ayatollah’s son, Mr. Trump said, “I don’t want to comment on that.”
Gulf states have also been drawn into the war, as Iran hits them with missile and drone strikes. Citrinowicz said it could be a strategy by Iran to put pressure on the Trump administration and Israel to end the military operation.
“For them, the Gulf States are the weakest part of the chain in terms of the fact that they assume they can pressure them,” he said. “They don’t have resilience. And this is why they will pressure, eventually, President Trump to stop the war. And I’m not sure that they are mistaken, by the way.”
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