分析文章：斯蒂芬·科林森（Stephen Collinson），美国有线电视新闻网（CNN） | 发布时间：2026年3月12日，美国东部时间凌晨12:00
如果弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）长达四分之一个世纪的扩张主义统治给西方带来了任何启示，那就是——这位俄罗斯总统的话不可轻信。
然而，美国高层官员却持续相信这位俄罗斯强人的说辞。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统最大的误解是认为普京希望乌克兰实现和平，尽管有压倒性的证据与此相悖。
如今，特朗普的团队可能再次因轻信而陷入困境。
据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道，就在莫斯科正帮助针对伊朗战争中威胁美军的无人机之际，特朗普政府可能会放宽更多旨在削弱普京乌克兰“杀戮机器”的制裁。此举希望能缓解特朗普在油价问题上的政治困境。
如果普京因特朗普搅乱全球能源市场而引发的战争成为中东危机深化的首个赢家，那将是一个非同寻常的转折。
普利策奖得主、石油专家丹尼尔·耶金（Daniel Yergin）表示，普京在两天前的克里姆林宫会议上对油价冲击沾沾自喜。“弗拉基米尔·普京在这里中了头彩。他是目前最大的赢家，因为油价大幅上涨，为他的战争提供了资金，而且制裁也在解除。”标准普尔全球公司副主席耶金在周三接受CNN主播艾琳·伯内特采访时表示。
俄罗斯官员在佛罗里达州进行会谈
在特朗普时代最新的美俄戏剧性事件中，一名俄罗斯高级官员周三在佛罗里达州与特朗普团队举行了秘密会谈。俄罗斯特别代表基里尔·德米特里耶夫（Kirill Dmitriev）与特使史蒂夫·维特科夫（Steve Witkoff）、总统女婿贾里德·库什纳（Jared Kushner）以及白宫高级顾问乔希·格鲁恩鲍姆（Josh Gruenbaum）会面。“双方讨论了多个议题，并同意保持联系。”维特科夫在一份未提及突然升温的美俄问题的简报中表示。
但在会议前，维特科夫淡化了俄罗斯向伊朗提供美军部队、舰船和飞机动向情报的报道。周二他在CNBC频道表示，莫斯科在特朗普前一天与普京通话时否认了此类行为。“所以，你知道，我们可以相信他们的话。但他们确实这么说了。”
周日在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的《60分钟》节目中，国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）淡化了俄军活动对美军的威胁，坚称“没有人将我们置于危险之中”。
然而，周三局势进一步复杂化。CNN记者尼克·帕顿·沃尔什（Nick Paton Walsh）独家报道称，俄罗斯正在帮助伊朗运用在乌克兰学到的无人机战术打击美军和海湾地区目标。一名西方情报官员表示，这是反美轴心盟友之间迄今为止最公开、最令人担忧的此类合作。
同样在周三，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基（Volodymyr Zelensky）表示，俄罗斯不仅帮助伊朗使用无人机，还提供导弹和防空系统。泽连斯基已派遣本国无人机专家协助美军应对伊朗“沙希德”（Shahed）无人机。
泽连斯基的表态是俄乌无人机激烈对抗如何重塑战争形态的最新迹象。这种动态现在已蔓延至新战场，低成本武器威胁着全球最先进的军事力量。
普京的战略博弈
关于俄罗斯协助无人机目标定位的披露，也凸显了普京如何利用全球危机的复杂策略，同时又与特朗普发展关系以推进其乌克兰目标。
特朗普希望伊朗战争能尽快结束，但美国和以色列对伊朗的猛烈打击因霍尔木兹海峡封锁危机而变得复杂。
油价飙升正威胁着特朗普本已脆弱的政治地位，促使其政府寻找应对办法。
华盛顿此前成功施压印度减少对俄罗斯石油的依赖，以向莫斯科施压，迫使其结束乌克兰战争。但上周，美国给予印度30天的豁免权，允许其炼油厂从俄罗斯“幽灵舰队”购买石油。财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）周五对福克斯商业频道表示：“我们可能会进一步解除对俄罗斯石油的制裁。”
这一言论引发了民主党人在参议院银行委员会的调查呼吁，要求贝森特作证。
意外的石油红利只是普京从伊朗战争中获益的方式之一。美国及其欧洲盟友可能会将资源和武器从支持基辅的战争中转移出来。与此同时，特朗普团队与普京特使会面时，欧洲盟友仍因特朗普对其不愿参与伊朗军事行动的愤怒而感到不安。这一切都有助于普京长期分裂北约国家凝聚力的战略。
这些好处或许能部分抵消伊朗政权若被削弱或最终倒台对俄罗斯外交政策的打击。今年1月，美国特种部队突袭推翻了委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro），俄罗斯失去了另一个盟友。
普京支持伊朗有几个关键原因：
- 美国曾协助乌克兰战争，普京此举是复仇；
- 若帮助伊朗延长战争，美国将无暇推动乌克兰和平谈判；
- 霍尔木兹海峡运输路线延长中断，油价高企可为其战争“输血”；
- 若美军在中东过度扩张，俄罗斯可在其他地区开辟新战略空间。
对德黑兰而言，俄罗斯的帮助远超宣传价值——暗示伊朗并非单独对抗美以。
俄罗斯对基辅及其他城市的毁灭性空袭，使其专家能完善战术，包括同时使用数十架无人机。这种技术专长有助于伊朗应对美海湾防空系统，而俄罗斯卫星可提供精准目标定位。
普京的平衡术
然而，普京的处境需要精妙平衡。他的核心利益是赢得乌克兰战争，部分通过延长和谈让地面部队蚕食更多领土。他不能承受与美国在伊朗问题上的直接冲突或军事对抗。
克里姆林宫尚未就其帮助伊朗发展无人机项目的最新报道置评，这进一步令特朗普政府难堪。
总统对俄罗斯强人普京的共情，定义了其政府的核心基调。特朗普曾表示，他和普京是“猎巫行动”的受害者，因为情报界评估称莫斯科干预了2016年大选。维特科夫作为政府至今未能实现乌克兰和平的代表，追随了老板的路线。去年，他在与普京会面后称：“我不认为普京是个坏人”——尽管普京发动的入侵已造成数千乌克兰人死亡。
彭博社去年审查并转录的通话记录显示，维特科夫曾指导一名俄罗斯高级官员如何与特朗普沟通。
维特科夫去年制定的28点和平计划，竟与莫斯科立场高度吻合，经国务卿马尔科·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）数周修改后才成为谈判基础。
共和党人往往在特朗普与普京的关系问题上如履薄冰。
堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall）周三对美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的凯特兰·柯林斯（Kaitlan Collins）表示，伊朗战争中的全球能源形势“非常微妙”。他补充道：“我认为解除对印度的石油制裁，让印度购买俄罗斯石油，我认为这对美国当前是件好事。”
但他继续说道：“当然，我也不喜欢俄罗斯……我认为，我们可以随时重新实施制裁。”
但这可能需要一段时间，尤其是考虑到霍尔木兹海峡即使很快重新开放，能源市场的动荡可能持续数周。周三，波斯湾两艘油轮疑似遭伊朗袭击后燃烧的震撼画面，进一步加深了危机可能性。
除非特朗普能尽快让美国脱身，否则他可能与普京有另一个共同点：发动一场误判对手反击能力、且持续时间超出预期的战争。
How Trump’s Iran exposure could hand Putin a lottery win
Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN | Published Mar 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
If Vladimir Putin’s quarter-century of expansionist rule has taught the West anything, it’s that the Russian president shouldn’t be taken at his word.
That hasn’t stopped top US officials from perpetually buying the Russian strongman’s lines. President Donald Trump’s biggest misconception is that Putin wants peace in Ukraine, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Now, Trump’s team risks falling victim to its own credulity again.
Just as Moscow is helping to target drones threatening US troops in the Iran war, according to a CNN report, the administration may ease more of the sanctions intended to weaken Putin’s Ukraine killing machine. The hope would be to lessen Trump’s political jam over oil prices.
It would be an extraordinary twist if Putin emerged as the first winner of the deepening Middle East crisis because Trump rocked global energy markets by launching his own war.
Putin gloated over the oil shock at a Kremlin meeting two days ago, according to Pulitzer Prize-winning oil expert Daniel Yergin. “Vladimir Putin has won the lottery here. He’s the biggest winner so far because the price of oil is way up to fund his war. And the sanctions are being taken off,” Yergin, vice chair of S&P Global, told CNN’s Erin Burnett on Wednesday.
Russian official holds talks in Florida
In the latest US-Russia melodrama of the Trump era, a top Russian official huddled with Trump’s team in Florida on Wednesday. Special envoy Kirill Dmitriev met special envoy Steve Witkoff; the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner; and White House senior adviser Josh Gruenbaum. “The teams discussed a variety of topics and agreed to stay in touch,” Witkoff said in a readout that touched on none of the suddenly burning US-Russia issues.
But before the meeting, Witkoff downplayed reports that the Russians were providing Iran with intelligence about the movements of US troops, ships and aircraft. He said on CNBC on Tuesday that Moscow had denied such behavior during Trump’s call with Putin the day before. “So, you know, we can take them at their word. But they did say that,” he said.
On CBS’ “60 Minutes” Sunday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth downplayed risks to US troops from Russian activity, insisting, “No one is putting us in danger.”
But the plot thickened Wednesday when CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh exclusively reported that Russia was helping Iran with drone tactics learned in Ukraine to hit US and Gulf targets. This is the most overt and concerning such cooperation yet between the anti-US axis allies, a Western intelligence official said.
Also on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has sent his drone experts to help US forces counter Iranian Shahed drones, said that Russians were helping the Islamic Republic not just with unmanned aerial vehicles, but also with missiles and air defenses.
Zelensky’s offer is the latest sign of how bitter drone duels between Ukraine and Russia have reshaped the character of warfare. This dynamic has now jumped to a new theater as budget-price weapons threaten the world’s most sophisticated military.
Putin’s strategic game
Disclosures about Russia’s drone targeting also underscore the complex game Putin plays to exploit global crises even as he cultivates his relationship with Trump to advance his goals in Ukraine.
Trump hopes the Iran war will soon end as a fearsome US and Israeli barrage against the Islamic Republic is complicated by a crisis of the locked-down Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transportation corridor.
A consequent spike in oil prices is threatening Trump’s already-fragile position, and has prompted his administration to look for ways to respond.
Washington had been successfully coercing India to lessen its dependence on Russian oil to help pressure Moscow into ending the war in Ukraine. But last week it granted a 30-day waiver to allow New Delhi’s refiners to buy oil from Russia’s ghost fleet. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business on Friday, “We may unsanction further Russian oil.”
His comment drew a call from Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee for an investigation and testimony from Bessent, first reported by Punchbowl News.
An unexpected oil bonanza is only one of the ways Putin can benefit from the war in Iran. The United States and its European allies may divert resources and arms away from supporting Kyiv’s war effort. And while Trump’s team met Putin’s envoy, European allies are still reeling from the president’s fury over their reluctance to join the assault on Iran. This is all grist for Putin’s long-term strategy of fracturing cohesion among NATO states.
These benefits may partly offset blows to Russian foreign policy if the Iranian regime is weakened or eventually topples. Russia lost another ally this year with the US special forces raid that toppled Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January.
Putin has strong rationales for helping Iran:
- It allows him to enact vengeance after the US helped Ukraine’s war effort by providing intelligence, even if the cooperation has narrowed under the current Trump administration.
- If he helps Iran prolong the war, the US will have less bandwidth to push him on Ukraine peace talks.
- An extended disruption to Gulf oil transportation routes could keep oil prices high — and replenish the Russian war effort against Ukraine.
- And if US and allied forces become overstretched in the Middle East, new strategic openings may appear for Russia elsewhere.
Russian help is valuable for Tehran, meanwhile, far beyond the propaganda value of assistance that implies it’s not confronting the fury of the US and Israel alone.
Russia’s murderous raids on Kyiv and other cities have enabled its specialists to refine formations and tactics, often using dozens of drones simultaneously. Such expertise could help Tehran confront US and Gulf air defenses. Moscow also has satellites used for precise targeting.
Putin’s balancing act
Still, Putin has a fine line to walk. His core interest is winning the war in Ukraine, in part by prolonging peace talks to allow his ground forces to grind out new territorial gains. He can’t afford a direct clash over Iran with the United States, or a military confrontation.
The Kremlin has not commented on the latest reports that it is helping Tehran directly with its drone program, which are a further embarrassment for the Trump administration.
The president’s empathy with the Russian strongman has helped define both his administrations. Trump once said that he and Putin were victims of a “witch hunt” over intelligence community assessments that Moscow meddled in the 2016 election. Witkoff, the face of the administration’s so-far thwarted attempts to bring peace to Ukraine, has followed his boss’s lead. He often emerges from meetings with Putin sounding like the Russian leader. “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy,” he said last year of a man who launched an invasion that has killed thousands of Ukrainians.
Then there was a transcript of a phone call reviewed and transcribed by Bloomberg last year that showed Witkoff coaching a top Russian official on how to talk to Trump.
A 28-point peace plan Witkoff drew up last year could have been written by Moscow and took weeks of finessing by Secretary of State Marco Rubio before it could serve as the basis for talks.
Republicans are often forced to dance on the head of a political pin over Trump’s relationship with Putin.
Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Wednesday that the global energy situation amid the Iran war was “very delicate.” He added: “I think the lifting (of) the oil sanctions on India, buying Russian oil, I think that’s doing something good for America right now.”
But he went on: “Of course, I have no use for Russia either … I think just as quickly as we took those sanctions away, we can put them back on.”
That may take a while, especially given expectations that turbulence in energy markets could endure for weeks even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon. Stunning imagery Wednesday of two tankers burning in the Gulf following suspected Iranian attacks raise the possibility meanwhile of a deepening crisis.
Unless Trump manages to extricate the United States soon, he may share something else with Putin: having started a war that miscalculated an adversary’s capacity to fight back and that drags on longer than he expected.
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