2026-03-11T06:00:17-0400 / CBS新闻
拉丁裔选民推动了上周得克萨斯州初选中创纪录的投票率——其中大多数人参加了民主党初选——这一趋势民主党人正密切关注，因为他们试图重新赢得该群体的支持，并在这个倾向共和党的州的参议院竞选中实现意外胜利。
上周的选举中，超过440万张选票被投出，超过了2024年和2020年的总统初选。拉丁裔选民是高投票率的重要贡献者，尤其是在南得克萨斯州等拉丁裔占多数的地区，这些地区在2024年倾向于特朗普总统。
与2020年、2022年和2024年的平均水平相比，拉丁裔占多数的县今年的初选投票数增长了约37%。得克萨斯州其他县的总增长接近33%。与美国-墨西哥边境的圣塔县和伊达尔戈县等拉丁裔人口众多的县，增长幅度最大，分别达到67%和51%。
原因之一是新登记的初选民中拉丁裔占比较高。例如，在拉丁裔早期选民中，整整三分之一的人在最近一次初选中没有投票。而且今年拉丁裔选民的投票倾向明显偏向民主党。选民档案中的选区数据和个人数据都表明，约四分之三的拉丁裔选民选择参加民主党初选而非共和党初选——新登记的初选民更是如此。
民主党在拉丁裔选民中的支持率越来越难以维持。皮尤研究中心对确认选民的调查显示，特朗普先生在2024年赢得了全国48%的拉丁裔选民支持，比四年前增长了12个百分点。在得克萨斯州，民主党人认为拉丁裔选民至关重要，而格兰德河沿岸的一些拉丁裔人口众多的县，从民主党坚固堡垒变成了浅红色区域。
但民主党希望今年拉丁裔选民能重新倒向他们。
“毫无疑问，这对共和党人来说是一个危险信号，一场五级警报的火灾，”政治分析师、资深加州共和党战略家迈克·马德里（Mike Madrid）表示，他一直批评特朗普先生。“现在他们能减轻这种情况吗？是的。他们正在采取措施限制损害吗？没有。”
马德里认为，实施关税政策是共和党人在拉丁裔选民中支持率下滑的开始。他认为，随着全国各地（包括美国-墨西哥边境城镇）的移民突袭行动，这种下滑进一步加速。最近的民调显示，大多数美国人——包括大多数拉丁裔受访者——不赞成特朗普先生处理移民问题的方式，并认为他过于关注对外国商品加征关税。
“他们将不得不与关键的特朗普政策划清界限，但又不能疏远特朗普，”马德里说。“这非常困难。”
周二，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（Mike Johnson）在谈及2026年中期选举中的拉丁裔选民时表示，共和党正处于“调整方向模式”。
“由于某些移民执法被认为过于激进，我们在某些西班牙裔和拉丁裔选民中遇到了一点小挫折，每个人的描述可能不同，”来自路易斯安那州的共和党人约翰逊说。“但好消息是，我们现在正处于调整方向模式。”
据两名在场人士透露，白宫副幕僚长詹姆斯·布莱尔（James Blair）在周二的闭门简报会上鼓励众议院共和党人在中期选举前的议程中避免强调“大规模驱逐”。消息人士称，布莱尔表示，立法者应专注于政府针对并驱逐在美国非法滞留的暴力犯罪者的努力。
布莱尔说，移民仍然是帮助特朗普先生重返白宫的共和党人的获胜议题，但他鼓励立法者关注公共安全。
Axios率先报道了布莱尔的评论。
当被问及布莱尔的言论时，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特（Karoline Leavitt）告诉CBS新闻：“没有人改变政府的移民执法议程。特朗普总统的最高优先级一直是驱逐危害美国社区的非法外国人罪犯。”
一位白宫官员表示，政府的移民政策没有改变，布莱尔“只是强调了我们知道最能引起共鸣的政策信息”。
塔拉里科聚焦拉丁裔选民
拉丁裔选民的高投票率帮助推动了州议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）的民主党参议院竞选，他在上周的初选中获胜，有望成为自1988年以来首位在得克萨斯州参议院选举中获胜的民主党人。塔拉里科在该州拉丁裔人口众多的地区的表现优于其民主党对手——美国众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特（Jasmine Crockett）。
塔拉里科的竞选团队试图通过早期接触来争取拉丁裔选民，其中一些活动用西班牙语进行。为此，塔拉里科依靠卡洛斯·爱德华多·埃斯皮纳（Carlos Eduardo Espina），一位拥有超过2000万社交媒体粉丝的西班牙裔TikTok网红。埃斯皮纳称自己是志愿者，发布支持塔拉里科的视频，为塔拉里科竞选，并帮助这位36岁的神学院学生出身的政治家制作西班牙语社交媒体内容。
“我们正处于一个临界点，除了塔拉里科，如果你想在得克萨斯州获胜，尤其是在州一级，没有西班牙语沟通是很难做到的，”埃斯皮纳告诉CBS新闻。
埃斯皮纳表示，他计划继续分享塔拉里科的竞选信息以及其他民主党国会候选人的信息，希望通过他的社交媒体内容在11月翻转得克萨斯州的红色席位，这些内容影响了数百万西班牙裔人群。
“我不认为自己是强硬的民主党人，”埃斯皮纳告诉CBS新闻。“我只是认为在这个时刻，考虑到发生的一切，我能为我的社区做的最好的事情就是倡导积极的变革，我努力让自己与不仅仅是任何民主党人，而是我认为能代表我和我的社区的民主党人保持一致。”
民主党得克萨斯州参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在3月2日休斯顿的竞选集会上发表讲话，社交媒体人物和影响者卡洛斯·爱德华多·埃斯皮纳介绍了他。 Danielle Villasana / Getty Images
虽然人们普遍预期占得克萨斯州人口约40%的拉丁裔选民将对参议院选举结果（以及该州其他选举）起到关键作用，但它对民主党有多有利可能取决于最终谁成为共和党参议院候选人。
在共和党初选中，现任参议员约翰·科宁（John Cornyn）出人意料地在拉丁裔占多数的地区表现优于对手——得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）。
“我们知道，11月的大选投票率会非常高，”马德里在谈到11月的大选时说。“它将更偏向民主党，但问题是偏向多少？”
重新划分选区的作用
去年，应特朗普先生的要求，得克萨斯州共和党人重新划分了该州的国会选区，在2026年中期选举前将五个民主党席位调整得更有利于共和党人。
这些选区边界的划定基于投票数据，并考虑到共和党人在2024年从拉丁裔选民中获得的优势——这意味着共和党国会候选人需要在今年的中期选举中复制这些优势，才能保住并可能翻转席位。
一场备受关注的众议院竞选将在一个从格兰德河谷延伸到圣安东尼奥东部的拉丁裔占多数的选区举行。
共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹（Monica De La Cruz）将在第15国会选区寻求连任，对手是民主党候选人博比·普利多（Bobby Pulido），一位特哈诺音乐明星。近年来，该选区一直严重偏向共和党，但民主党希望随着拉丁裔选民转向左翼而翻转该席位。
“我听到了他们的关切，”德拉克鲁兹在上周得克萨斯州初选前被问及拉丁裔选民时告诉CBS新闻。“我也理解他们不想回到拜登政府时期的混乱和缺乏法律与秩序的状态，”德拉克鲁兹说。“他们要求边境安全，特朗普总统已经实现了安全边境，下一步是研究对所有人都有效的执法政策。”
这位得克萨斯州共和党女议员呼吁国会两党就移民问题寻求解决方案，例如为建筑工人提供临时工作签证，而该行业因国会选区的移民逮捕而受到影响。
虽然上周民主党候选人中拉丁裔高投票率可能对共和党人来说是个问题，但一些人谨慎地表示，不要从初选结果中得出太多结论。
“回顾得克萨斯州2002年、2004年、2008年和2020年的一些历史数据，数据显示更多的西班牙裔参加了民主党初选，但在同年的大选中，共和党人仍然赢得了全州范围的选举，”Libre Action Texas组织顾问豪尔赫·马丁内斯（Jorge Martinez）说。
Libre Action正在支持特朗普背书的共和党国会候选人埃里克·弗洛雷斯（Eric Flores），他希望击败民主党现任议员文森特·冈萨雷斯（Vicente Gonzalez）。
冈萨雷斯代表一个边境选区，该选区在去年的重新划分中变得对共和党更有利。据马丁内斯称，该地区的拉丁裔选民特别关注经济状况和移民执法问题，他强调了实地选民接触的重要性。
“看，如果你们不接触我们的社区，你们就会输，”马丁内斯说。“我们看到过去几个选举周期中，共和党人通过积极接触取得了进展。我们多年来一直在那里，就问题进行宣传，但你们也看到民主党人也在努力做同样的事情，因为他们意识到他们把西班牙裔视为理所当然。”
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本报道的数据分析整合了选民登记名单以及县和选区的选举结果。选区结果来自18个不同的县，约占全州选区的一半。
奥利维亚·里纳尔迪（Olivia Rinaldi）为本文提供了报道。
Latino Texans helped fuel a surge in Democratic primary turnout, as GOP aims to hold onto gains
2026-03-11T06:00:17-0400 / CBS News
Latino voters helped propel record turnout in last week’s Texas primaries — with most voting in the Democratic contest — a trend Democrats are watching closely as they try to reclaim ground with the group and pull off an upset win in the red-leaning state’s Senate contest.
Over 4.4 million ballots were cast in last week’s races, exceeding the 2024 and 2020 presidential primaries. Contributing to the huge turnout were Latino voters, especially in Latino-majority areas like South Texas that trended toward President Trump in 2024.
Relative to their average across 2020, 2022, and 2024, majority-Latino counties saw growth of approximately 37% in their primary votes this year. Other counties in Texas saw closer to a 33% increase in aggregate. Heavily Latino counties like Starr and Hidalgo, which sit along the U.S.-Mexico border, saw some of the biggest jumps — 67% and 51%, respectively.
One reason is that new primary voters were disproportionately Latino. Among Latino early voters, for example, a full third hadn’t turned out in a recent primary. And Latino turnout skewed heavily Democratic this year. Both precinct data and individual-level data from the voter file suggest that about three in four Latino voters chose to vote in the Democratic primary over the Republican one — new primary voters even more so.
Democrats have increasingly struggled with Latino voters. Mr. Trump won 48% of nationwide Latino voters in 2024, a 12-point jump from four years earlier, according to a Pew Research Center survey of confirmed voters. In Texas, where Democrats view Latino voters as crucial, some heavily Latino counties along the Rio Grande went from being Democratic strongholds to light-red areas.
But Democrats hope that Latino voters will shift back in their favor this year.
“There is no question this is a red flag for Republicans, a five alarm fire,” said Mike Madrid, a political analyst and veteran California GOP strategist who has been a critic of Mr. Trump. “Now can they mitigate it? Yes. Are they doing things to limit the damage? No.”
Madrid argues the implementation of tariffs is what started the “downslide” for Republicans among Latino voters. The decline further accelerated, Madrid believes, with immigration raids seen across the country, including in towns along the U.S.-Mexico border. Recent polling shows most Americans — including most Latino respondents — disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of immigration and feel he is overly focused on putting tariffs on foreign goods.
“They’re going to have to distance themselves from key Trump policies, without distancing themselves from Trump,” Madrid said. “That is very difficult to do.”
On Tuesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson said the Republican party is in a “course correction mode” while addressing the Latino vote in the 2026 midterms.
“We got a little hiccup with some of the Hispanic and Latino voters for certain because some of the immigration enforcement was viewed to be overzealous and everybody can describe it differently,” said Johnson, a Louisiana Republican. “But here’s the good news, we are in a course correction mode right now.”
White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair encouraged House Republicans in a closed-door briefing Tuesday to avoid emphasizing “mass deportations” when discussing his agenda ahead of the midterms, according to two sources in the room. Instead, Blair said lawmakers should focus on the administration’s efforts to target and remove violent criminals who are in the U.S. illegally, the sources said.
Blair said immigration remains a winning issue for Republicans that helped propel Mr. Trump back to the White House, but he encouraged lawmakers to focus on public safety.
Axios was first to report on Blair’s comments.
Asked about Blair’s remarks, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CBS News: “Nobody is changing the Administration’s immigration enforcement agenda. President Trump’s highest priority has always been the deportation of illegal alien criminals who endanger American communities.”
A White House official said the administration’s immigration policy hasn’t changed, and Blair “was just emphasizing the message that we know resonates the most with respect to the policy.”
Talarico focuses on Latino voters
High turnout among Latino voters helped boost the Democratic Senate bid of state Rep. James Talarico, who won last week’s primary and is looking to be the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988. Talarico outperformed his Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, in the state’s heavily Latino areas.
Talarico’s campaign sought to court Latino voters through early outreach, with some done in Spanish. For that task, Talarico relied on Carlos Eduardo Espina, a Hispanic TikTok influencer with over 20 million followers across social media platforms. Espina — who says he acted as a volunteer — posted pro-Talarico videos, stumped for Talarico and helped the 36-year-old seminary student-turned-politician with Spanish-language social media content.
“We’re getting to a point where beyond Talarico, in general, if you want to win in Texas, it’s very hard to do so, especially at the state level, without having Spanish communication,” Espina told CBS News.
Espina says he plans on continuing to share Talarico’s campaign message and that of other Democratic congressional candidates in hopes of flipping red Texas seats in November through his social media content that reaches millions of Hispanics.
“I don’t consider myself to be a hardline Democrat,” Espina told CBS News. “I just think at this moment, with everything going on, the best thing I can do for my community is advocate for a positive change and I try to align myself with not just any Democrat, but Democrats that I feel speak to me and my community.”
Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico speaks at a March 2 campaign rally in Houston after being introduced by social media personality and influencer Carlos Eduardo Espina. Danielle Villasana / Getty Images
While it is largely expected that Latino Texans — who make up around 40% of the state’s population — will be critical in determining the outcome of the Senate race, among other races in the state, the degree to which it benefits Democrats might depend on who ends up being the Republican Senate candidate.
In the Republican primary, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn defied expectations and also performed better in Latino-majority areas than his opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
“What we do know is there’s going to be a very high turnout,” Madrid said of November’s general election. “It will be more Democratic, but the question is how much more Democratic?”
The role of redistricting
Last year, at the request of Mr. Trump, Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional districts, making five Democratic seats more favorable for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.
These boundaries were drawn based on voting data, with the gains that Republicans made with Latino voters in 2024 in mind — meaning GOP congressional candidates will need to replicate those gains in this year’s midterms in order to hold onto and potentially flip seats.
One closely watched House race will take place in a majority-Hispanic district that stretches from the Rio Grande Valley to areas east of San Antonio.
Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is running for reelection in the 15th Congressional District against Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star. The district has heavily favored Republicans in recent years, but Democrats are hoping to flip it as Latino voters swing leftward.
“I hear what their concerns are,” De La Cruz told CBS News ahead of last week’s Texas primary when asked about Latino constituents. “I also understand that they don’t want to return to the chaos and the lack of law and order that was happening under the Biden administration,” De La Cruz said. “They asked for a secure border, President Trump has delivered on that secure border, and the next step is to look at enforcement policies that are going to work for all.”
The Texas Republican congresswoman has called for bipartisan solutions on Capitol Hill on immigration, like temporary work visas for construction workers, an industry impacted by immigration arrests within the congressional district.
While the high Latino turnout for Democratic candidates last week could be a problematic sign for Republicans, some caution against drawing too many conclusions from primary results.
“When you look at some of the historical data in Texas from 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2020, the data has shown more Hispanics vote in the Democratic primary, but in the same years during the general election, Republicans still ended up winning statewide races,” said Jorge Martinez, an adviser to the Libre Action Texas organization.
Libre Action is supporting a Trump-endorsed Republican congressional candidate, Eric Flores, who is hoping to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez.
Gonzalez represents a border district that was made more favorable to Republicans in last year’s redistricting effort. Latino voters in the region are especially concerned about the state of the economy and immigration enforcement, according to Martinez, who emphasizes the importance of conducting on-the-ground voter outreach.
“Look, if you’re not reaching out to our community, you’re going to lose,” Martinez said. “We’ve seen over the last few election cycles, Republicans making inroads because of gains they made through outreach. We’ve been out there for many years, informing on issues, but you also see Democrats trying to do the same because they’ve realized that they took Hispanics for granted.”
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The data analyses in this story incorporate voter registration lists, as well as county- and precinct-level election results. The precinct results were scraped from a diverse set of 18 counties that account for approximately half of precincts statewide.
Olivia Rinaldi contributed to this report.
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