分析：艾伦·布雷克
更新于2小时前
最后更新：2026年3月10日，美国东部时间下午1:20
发布：2026年3月10日，美国东部时间下午1:11
（图片说明：2026年3月9日，佛罗里达州多拉市特朗普国家多拉迈阿密度假村，唐纳德·特朗普总统在新闻发布会上发言后从讲台走来。美联社照片/马克·谢菲尔德）
3月7日，特朗普总统声称是德黑兰方面在战争初期袭击了伊朗一所小学，造成数十名儿童死亡。
3月9日，他承认自己此前所言基本毫无根据，随后转而暗示包括伊朗在内的其他国家使用了战斧导弹——这种弹药似乎正是袭击学校的武器。但伊朗并不拥有战斧导弹。
当被追问为何其政府其他成员没有提出类似伊朗应承担责任的说法（反而指向一项调查）时，特朗普表示：“因为我对此了解得还不够多。”
他补充称，会尊重调查结果。
更值得关注的是：特朗普不仅在声称这一指控时对局势知之甚少，而且他所指的“可能是战争中最具争议的袭击事件”，他自己也几乎一无所知。
截至他发表言论时，这起袭击事件已成为重大国际新闻——甚至有共和党人担忧，如果美国确实负有责任，这可能对战争努力造成实质性损害。（根据美国有线电视新闻网和专家对证据的分析，美军很可能是责任方；新出现的视频似乎显示美军导弹瞄准了学校旁边的伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军基地。）
但显然，特朗普对此并不知情。
这并非特朗普对伊朗实地局势了解匮乏的唯一例证。
特朗普与事实的关系一直复杂，但在战争背景下这种脱节尤为突出。
周一的新闻发布会上，除了学校袭击事件，特朗普还在介绍部分声称：伊朗的海湾邻国已与美国和以色列并肩参战，共同对抗德黑兰。
“他们的邻国原本大多保持中立——至少不会参与其中——但遭到了袭击，”他说，“结果适得其反：邻国转而站到我们这边，开始攻击伊朗，而且相当成功。看看沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、卡塔尔和其他国家。”
但这与事实不符。
伊朗确实对美国和以色列的袭击进行了报复，袭击了其海湾邻国境内的美军资产。但这并未导致这些邻国加入战争：
- 阿联酋：正如美国有线电视新闻网的宝拉·汉考克斯周二报道，阿联酋受到伊朗的攻击最多。但阿联酋并未对伊朗发动打击——两国有着长期商业往来——且似乎正通过其他方式施加压力。
- 沙特阿拉伯：路透社报道，沙特已威胁若伊朗持续攻击将予以报复，但并未加入战争。
- 卡塔尔：卡塔尔外交部发言人马吉德·阿尔-安萨里表示，“卡塔尔未参与针对伊朗的行动”；卡塔尔首相谢赫穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜拉赫曼·本·贾西姆·阿勒萨尼周一告诉天空新闻，“我们继续寻求缓和局势。”
周一晚间，在特朗普发言数小时后，参议员林赛·格雷厄姆在福克斯新闻中对这些海湾国家未参战表示愤怒。
“对于沙特阿拉伯，我们在利雅得的大使馆遭到袭击，”南卡罗来纳州共和党人说，“你们难道没有义务与我们并肩作战吗？”
格雷厄姆还称阿联酋的决定“令人失望”。
在同一场新闻发布会上，特朗普还打赌称伊朗南部海岸霍尔木兹海峡的航运放缓“对我们影响不大”，因为美国现在自己生产了大量石油。
其他国家确实更依赖海湾石油——尤其是亚洲国家——但全球经济相互关联，美国显然也感受到了负面影响，尤其是在油价方面。
当然，特朗普还就伊朗的能力及发动战争的理由多次表态。
他反复声称，伊朗“很快”就能用洲际弹道导弹打击美国，正计划先发制人攻击美国，并且近期声称伊朗还计划控制整个中东。
但这些说法均未得到已知情报支持。就像特朗普现在弱化的“伊朗袭击本国学校”说法，他是少数持此类观点的人之一。
特朗普似乎常常活在精心构建的“平行现实”中。
但在国内政策中这样做是一回事；在局势高度紧张的地区发动战争时如此脱离现实，则是另一回事。
然而目前局势正是如此，且没有迹象表明特朗普的决策很快会基于现实。
（注：本文为根据原文风格与内容翻译，保留原文结构与事实细节，符合中文新闻表达习惯。）
Does Trump even know what’s happening in Iran?
Analysis by Aaron Blake
Updated 2 hr ago
Updated Mar 10, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
PUBLISHED Mar 10, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
President Donald Trump walks from the podium after speaking at a news conference, Monday, March 9, 2026, at Trump National Doral Miami in Doral, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
Mark Schiefelbein/AP
On Saturday, President Donald Trump claimed it was Tehran that struck an Iranian elementary school early in the war, killing scores of children.
On Monday, he admitted he basically had no idea what he was talking about when he said that, then went on to suggest other countries, including Iran, use Tomahawk missiles, the type of munition that appears to have hit the school. Iran does not have Tomahawks.
When pressed at a news conference why nobody else in his administration was making the same claim about Iran being responsible (and instead pointing to an investigation), Trump said,”Because I just don’t know enough about it.”
He added that he would respect the findings of the investigation.
Just to put a fine point on that: Trump not only says he shared this claim despite appearing to know little about the situation; he’s also saying he didn’t know much about perhaps the single most controversial strike of the war.
It’s a strike that had become a huge international story by the time he weighed in — and one that even some Republicans fear could do real damage to the war effort, if the US was indeed culpable. (The US military was likely responsible, according to a CNN and expert analysis of evidence, and new video has emerged that appears to show a US missile targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval base adjacent to the school.)
But apparently, Trump was out of the loop.
This is hardly the only example of the president seeming to have a loose grasp of what’s happening on the ground in Iran.
Trump has often had a complicated relationship with the truth, but it’s striking to see that play out in the context of a war.
The school strike wasn’t even the only example from Monday’s press conference.
At another point in his introduction, Trump seemed to claim that Iran’s Gulf neighbors had joined the war effort against Tehran alongside the United States and Israel.
“Their neighbors were largely neutral — or at least weren’t going to be involved — and they got attacked,” he said. “And it had the reverse effect. The neighbors came onto our side and started attacking them, and actually quite successfully. If you look at Saudi Arabia, you look at UAE, Qatar and others.”
But this does not reflect reality.
It’s true that Iran retaliated against US and Israeli attacks by striking US assets in its Gulf neighbors. But it’s not true that this led those neighbors to join the war:
- The UAE has come under the most fire from Iran, as CNN’s Paula Hancocks reported Tuesday. But it has not struck Iran, with which it has a long history of business ties, and appears to be trying to exert pressure in other ways.
- Saudi Arabia has threatened retaliation against Iran if Tehran keeps attacking it, Reuters reported, but it has not joined the war.
- A spokesman for Qatar’s foreign ministry, Majed al-Ansari, has said, “Qatar has not been part of the campaign targeting Iran.” And Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani told Sky News on Monday, “We continue to seek de-escalation.”
The fact that these Gulf countries haven’t joined the fight was the subject of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s ire Monday night on Fox News, just hours after Trump spoke.
“To Saudi Arabia, our embassy was hit in Riyadh,” the South Carolina Republican said. “Do you not have an obligation to join the fight with us?”
Graham also called the UAE’s decision “so disappointing.”
Trump in the same news conference also wagered that the slowdown in the Strait of Hormuz off Iran’s southern coast “doesn’t really affect us,” because the US now produces so much oil of its own.
Other countries do rely more on Gulf oil — especially those in Asia — but the global economy is interconnected enough that the US has obviously felt the ill effects, especially when it comes to oil prices.
And of course, there are Trump’s claims about Iran’s capabilities and his justifications for launching the war in the first place.
He has repeatedly claimed that Iran would have “soon” been able to hit the United States with an intercontinental ballistic missile, that it was planning to preemptively strike the United States, and increasingly of late that it was also planning to take over the whole Middle East.
But none of these have been backed up by known intelligence. And much like Trump’s now softened suggestion that Iran struck its own school, he’s one of the few people even talking in some of these terms.
Trump often seems to be residing in an elaborately crafted alternate reality.
But it’s one thing to do that with domestic policy; it’s another to appear so disconnected from reality when you are waging war in a highly combustible region.
Yet that seems to be the state of play, with no signs that Trump’s decisions will be grounded in reality any time soon.
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