发布时间：2026年3月8日，美国东部时间上午6:00 | 作者：亚当·坎克林
副总统JD·万斯和国务卿马尔科·卢比奥参加了3月3日在白宫举行的总统唐纳德·特朗普与德国总理默克尔的会议。
Kay Nietfeld/Picture Alliance/DPA/AP
当总统唐纳德·特朗普首次提出与伊朗发生战争的可能性时，一些最严肃的保留意见来自他的副手。
曾作为对外战争批评者崛起并在政治上崭露头角的前海军陆战队员副总统JD·万斯，曾劝诫不要在中东发动另一场不可预测的冲突。
但随着特朗普显然仍倾向于军事行动，万斯改变了立场。他主张特朗普迅速果断地发动攻击，认为这对于减少美国伤亡并防止伊朗先发动袭击是必要的。
据两名知情人士透露，副总统的立场转变反映了特朗普最亲密的助手们对这场战争的态度——起初很少有人认为这是当务之急，但最终所有人都表示支持。
据六名助手、顾问及其他知情人士称，在特朗普权衡冲突时，许多最响亮的主战声音来自白宫之外的盟友，而非其核心圈子。这些更发声的行动者最终淹没了更安静的谨慎呼吁。
除万斯外，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军也阐述了打击伊朗可能带来的负面后果。国务卿马尔科·卢比奥当时正忙于处理1月份对委内瑞拉突袭行动的后续事宜，最初仅给予不温不火的支持。而幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯近几个月更专注于政治事务，策划中期选举推动，她担心国内优先事项被特朗普的外交政策举措所掩盖。
人们看着2月28日德黑兰爆炸后天空中升起的烟雾。
AP
尽管心存疑虑，万斯和其他高级官员在意识到战争不可避免后，几乎没有提出反对。他们在2月28日袭击前的准备阶段，全力执行特朗普的意愿而非试图改变。
“这不是一个‘对手团队’的白宫；总统不会让不同的政策智囊在公开辩论中互相攻击，”《美国保守派》执行主任柯特·米尔斯表示，他也是对外国干预持深切怀疑态度的人之一。“如果总统不愿意或无法说不，我们就会开战。”
这些高级助手现在正争先恐后地制定与伊朗长期作战的策略，但这场战争没有明确的最终目标，且对特朗普的总统任期以及部分人的未来政治抱负都存在诸多风险。
万斯对战争的支持令他多年来培养的共和党内反干预主义派系感到震惊，这实际上是在押注他2028年的政治命运，认为自己能够在中东迅速取得胜利，且美国伤亡极少、无持久后果。
对于被广泛视为万斯2028年提名主要竞争对手的卢比奥而言，长期冲突可能会危及他通过一系列成功外交举措积累的良好声誉。战争开始仅几天，他就陷入争议，当他暗示以色列将美国带入对伊朗的打击时，迅速引发强烈反对。第二天，在特朗普公开表示反对后，他收回了这些言论。
“这正是这一决定的危险本质，”一位前特朗普政府官员表示。“它可能会困扰那些有野心并希望超越本届政府的人。”
总统团队正在多个战线上应对紧迫挑战，尽管特朗普最近几天一直将此次行动吹捧为一场彻底的军事胜利。
在国务院，卢比奥正在迟来地努力撤离数千名被困在中东且受到威胁的美国人。在由皮特·赫格斯领导的五角大楼内部，人们对美国武器储备规模以及战争的无限期时间表感到焦虑。
国务卿马尔科·卢比奥3月2日在美国国会与记者交谈。
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
距离中期选举还有八个月，万斯和怀尔斯正试图控制国内影响，安抚因特朗普对战争的热情而担忧的MAGA盟友，并向公众推销战争目标，同时寻找新方法限制美国经济的影响——包括油价快速上涨。
“唐纳德·特朗普绝不可能允许这个国家陷入一场看不到明确目标、没有清晰结局的多年冲突，”万斯上周在福克斯新闻中坚持表示，尽管他承认“我们可能会再打一段时间，甚至更长时间。”
白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在一份声明中表示，特朗普的国家安全团队“每天都在共同努力，确保‘史诗愤怒行动’的全面成功。”
尽管如此，战争进行一周后，其最终走向仍不明确——以及如何确保顺利撤军。
知情人士称，特朗普的顶级助手们一致希望战争相对短暂，希望持续数周而非数月。自发起初步打击以来，他们强调目标不包括政权更迭，担心树立一个美国无法完全控制的胜利标准。
尽管特朗普敦促伊朗人民在当前政权被摧毁后接管政府，但各方对这一结果以及新领导层是否会对美国更友好几乎没有信心。
万斯、卢比奥和其他高级官员转而寻求建立更可控的军事目标，旨在摧毁伊朗的即时武器能力并有效消除其发展核弹的任何进展。
但随着军事行动在全国范围内扩大目标，具体需要多长时间尚不确定。考虑到美国可能在管理由此产生的权力真空方面发挥一定作用——特朗普曾暗示他希望对新政权拥有发言权——战争可能会持续更久。
“接下来大约三周，他们将打击大量目标，”一位特朗普政府官员表示。“然后是几个月的时间，谁来建立控制权？他们如何运作？谁在指挥部队，如何合作？”
然而，在整个这一周，特朗普的顶级助手们正面临着更紧迫的困境，就在家门口。受伊朗在中东持续报复的惊吓，霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输——世界上最关键的水道之一——已陷入停滞，油价飙升，促使财政部、能源部和内政部紧急开发新方法以缓解冲击。
油价上涨已传导至美国汽油价格，全国平均油价达到两年多来的最高水平，抵消了特朗普在中期选举中作为核心卖点的“美国人可负担性”关键指标的改善。
罗杰斯，白宫发言人表示，特朗普和他的能源团队“有一个强有力的计划来稳定油价”，并正在审查所有可靠选择。截至周五，特朗普高级官员已推出一些初步措施，包括计划开始由政府为愿意冒险穿越伊朗边境霍尔木兹海峡的油轮提供保险。
然而，尽管努力缓解行业担忧，油价仍继续上涨，表明市场对特朗普团队应对下一步可能情况的能力缺乏信心。
“他们完全专注于此，”前特朗普能源部高级官员理查德·戈德堡表示，指的是政府内部的推动。但随着官员们试图应对战争不可预测的连锁反应，“你正处于某种未知领域。”
3月1日，美国海军“托马斯·哈德纳”号驱逐舰向伊朗发射战斧式陆攻导弹。
US Navy/Reuters
Vance, Rubio and others in Trump’s inner circle preached caution on Iran. Now they’re on board
PUBLISHED Mar 8, 2026, 6:00 AM ET | By Adam Cancryn
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio take part in President Donald Trump’s meeting with German Chancellor Merz at the White House on March 3.
Kay Nietfeld/Picture Alliance/DPA/AP
When President Donald Trump first raised the prospect of war with Iran, some of the most serious reservations came from his second in command.
A former Marine who rose to political prominence as a critic of foreign wars, Vice President JD Vance counseled against the perils of launching another unpredictable conflict in the Middle East.
But as it became apparent that Trump still favored military action, Vance shifted his stance. He advocated for Trump to attack quickly and decisively, arguing it would be necessary to minimize American casualties and prevent Iran from striking first.
The vice president’s pivot, described by two people familiar with the events, reflected how Trump’s closest aides approached a war that few initially viewed as an imperative — but all of them ended up supporting.
As Trump weighed conflict, many of the loudest pro-war voices came from allies outside the White House rather than those in his inner circle, according to a half-dozen aides, advisers and others familiar with the matter. Those more vocal actors eventually drowned out quieter calls for caution.
In addition to Vance, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine laid out the potential negative repercussions of striking Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, already occupied with managing the aftermath of January’s raid on Venezuela, offered only tepid support at the outset. And chief of staff Susie Wiles had spent recent months more focused on political matters, plotting a midterm push focused on domestic priorities she worried had been overshadowed by Trump’s foreign policy forays.
People watch as smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, on February 28.
AP
Despite the misgivings, Vance and other top officials put up little resistance to war once they came to see it as inevitable, spending the run-up to the February 28 attack racing to execute Trump’s wishes rather than trying to change them.
“This is not a ‘team of rivals’ White House; the president is not having different policy minds tear out each other’s throats in open debate,” said Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative and among those deeply skeptical of foreign intervention. “If the president was unwilling or unable to say no, we were going to war.”
Those senior aides are now scrambling to build out a longer-term strategy for a fight with no clear endgame but plenty of risk to Trump’s presidency and — for some — their own future political aspirations.
Vance’s support for the war has alarmed the anti-interventionist wing of the GOP that he spent years cultivating, effectively gambling his 2028 fortunes on being able to pull off a fast win in the Middle East with few American deaths and no lasting consequences.
Vice President JD Vance talks on his phone as he walks to the West Wing of the White House on March 6.
Alex Brandon/AP
For Rubio, who is widely viewed as Vance’s chief rival for the 2028 nomination, a prolonged conflict threatens to jeopardize the goodwill he’s accumulated from overseeing a string of successful gambits abroad. He seemed to step in it just days into the war, prompting swift backlash when he suggested Israel led the US into striking Iran. He walked back those comments the next day, after Trump publicly disagreed.
“This is the precarious nature of this decision in particular,” said one former Trump administration official. “It could end up haunting the folks who have ambitions and want to see beyond this particular administration.”
The president’s team is juggling pressing challenges on several fronts, even as Trump has spent recent days touting the operation as a resounding military triumph.
At the State Department, Rubio is overseeing a belated effort to evacuate thousands of Americans stranded in the Middle East and under threat. Inside a Pentagon run by Pete Hegseth, there is anxiety about the extent of the nation’s weapons stockpiles and the war’s open-ended timeline.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio talks to reporters at the US Capitol on March 2.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
And eight months out from midterm elections, Vance and Wiles are trying to contain the domestic fallout, seeking to reassure MAGA allies worried by Trump’s enthusiasm for war and to sell the broader public on its objectives while also finding new ways to limit the repercussions for the US economy — including the rapidly increasing cost of oil.
“There’s just no way that Donald Trump is going to allow this country to get into a multi-year conflict with no clear end in sight and no clear objective,” Vance insisted on Fox News last week, even as he conceded that “we could go for a little bit longer. We could go a lot longer.”
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement that Trump’s national security team was “working together daily to ensure the total and complete success of Operation Epic Fury.”
Still, a week into the fighting, there remains little clear sense of the war’s ultimate trajectory — and how exactly to ensure a clean exit.
Trump’s top aides are aligned on their desire to keep the war relatively brief, hoping it lasts weeks rather than months, the people familiar with the matter said. Since launching the initial strikes, they’ve stressed that their goals do not include regime change, wary of setting a standard for victory that’s not necessarily within the US’ control.
Though Trump has urged the Iranian people to take over their government once the current regime is decimated, there is little confidence in how that will play out and whether the new leadership will be friendlier for the US.
The USS Thomas Hudner fires a Tomahawk land attack missile toward Iran on March 1.
US Navy/Reuters
Vance, Rubio and other top officials have instead sought to establish a more manageable set of military objectives aimed at destroying Iran’s immediate weapons capabilities and effectively eliminating any progress toward developing a nuclear bomb.
Yet it’s uncertain precisely how long that will take as the military broadens its targets across the country. And it could go on further, given recognition that the US will likely play some role in managing the resulting leadership vacuum — Trump has mused that he would like a say in the next regime.
“For the next three weeks, roughly, they’re going to be striking a lot of material,” said one Trump administration official. “Then it’s going to be a couple months of, who’s establishing the control and how are they doing it? Who’s running the forces and how are they cooperating?”
Throughout the week, though, Trump’s top aides were confronting more immediate dilemmas far closer to home. Spooked by Iran’s sustained retaliation across the Middle East, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical waterways — had come to a standstill, driving up prices and prompting a sprint across the Treasury, Energy and Interior departments to develop new ways to temper the shock.
The surging oil prices have already filtered through to US gas prices, pushing the cost at the pump to its highest national average in more than two years — and wiping out progress on a key metric Trump had made a centerpiece of his midterm pitch on Americans’ affordability concerns.
Rogers, the White House spokeswoman, said Trump and his energy team “have had a strong game plan to keep oil prices stable” and that they were reviewing all credible options. By Friday, top Trump officials had rolled out some initial actions, including plans to start having the government insure tankers willing to venture across the Strait of Hormuz bordering Iran.
Yet despite the effort to ease the industry’s fears , oil prices continued to rise, signaling scant market confidence that Trump’s team had a handle on what might come next.
“They’re totally focused on it,” Richard Goldberg, a former senior Trump energy official, said of the push inside the administration. But with officials trying to navigate the unpredictable ripple effects of war, “you’re in somewhat uncharted territory.”
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