2026年3月6日 / 美国东部时间下午12:44 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
华盛顿— 一位研究空袭行动的专家表示，仅靠美国和以色列的空袭不太可能导致伊朗政府倒台，他同时警告称，局势正朝着可能蔓延至中东以外地区的持久战方向发展，风险日益增加。
芝加哥大学政治学教授罗伯特·佩普（Robert Pape）已研究空中力量30年，他在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻24/7频道采访时表示，历史经验并不支持”仅靠轰炸就能推翻政权并扶持亲美领导人”的说法。
“事实上，一个多世纪以来，各国都试图仅通过空中力量推翻政权——我措辞很谨慎——但从未成功过，”佩普周五对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻24/7频道表示，”我们正走向一个可预见的结果：风险加剧、升级不断。很遗憾地说，这种状况可能会持续相当长一段时间。”
战争初期，以色列的空袭虽造成伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）和数十名高级政府官员死亡，但伊朗军方和高级神职人员仍掌握着权力核心。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队继续在该地区发动报复性无人机和导弹袭击，一个宗教机构也在着手挑选伊朗下一任最高领袖。
佩普称，美国和以色列最初的打击未能”实现快速决定性胜利”。
“这在政治上最终是一种自我毁灭的政策。我们正在注入民族主义情绪，而通常的结果是会出现更加强硬的领导人。这就是为什么特朗普总统说，’我不想要那个人’，”他指的是哈梅内伊的儿子，”因为他会比我们之前面对的领导人糟糕得多。”
特朗普总统周五警告称，他只接受”无条件投降”，并表示不排除动用地面部队的可能。
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总统呼吁伊朗民众抓住机会推翻政府，但同时也暗示，如果现任权力结构中的新领导人更愿意与美国合作，他可能接受其掌权。特朗普经常以委内瑞拉为例，称美国军队已擒获总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）并扶持了一位与美国合作的临时领导人。
以色列军事情报前负责人阿莫斯·亚德林（Amos Yadlin）周五对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，以色列政府或军方中没有任何理智的人认为现在实现政权更迭是可行的。
佩普指出，伊朗”可以采取多种手段延长战争、伤害我们，却绝不会与我们进行正面决战”。
“这就是我们输掉越南战争的原因。很遗憾地说，我们正走在一条没有制胜战略的道路上，”他补充道。
哥伦比亚广播公司新闻周四报道，美国海湾盟友警告称，拦截伊朗导弹所需的拦截弹库存告急，这进一步加剧了人们对昂贵武器库存补充能力的担忧——这些武器主要用于抵御成本相对较低的无人机和导弹。
佩普称，他从20世纪80年代开始研究轰炸行动的有效性，以弄清楚为何美国尽管在技术和资源上拥有压倒性优势，却在越南战争中失利。20世纪90年代精确制导武器出现后，他开始与美国空军合作。
“突然之间，人们开始谈论情报。这就是整个想法。思路是，’哇，我们有精确打击能力，我们能用精确情报做到这一点，现在真的可以推翻政府了’，”他表示，”但要注意，我们根本做不到。在精确打击时代，我们一次次尝试，却无一成功。过去30年里成功率为零。原因在于，精确打击的目标如此诱人，以至于你看不到随之而来的长期战争。”
佩普强调，当前冲突的风险在于”这不仅仅会在中东地区升级，随着时间推移，还会向全球范围内扩散”。他认为伊朗及其代理组织可能开始打击全球各地的目标。
“这里根本没有战略。一味强硬、在公众面前大谈特谈——这就是民主国家常常陷入长期战争的原因，”他说，”然后这些领导人几年后就会看起来很尴尬，因为事实证明这根本行不通。所以我的问题是：战略在哪里？”
佩普的担忧与近期分析师和专家的观点一致，随着战争轮廓逐渐清晰，各方对局势的担忧日益加剧。哥伦比亚广播公司新闻撰稿人、前中情局官员埃利奥特·阿克曼（Elliot Ackerman）本周早些时候在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻《The Takeout》栏目采访时表示，这场战争”极其危险”。
“它依赖伊朗公民社会起来控制政府。我们正在试图推翻一个极其复杂地区的政权。伊朗是中东第二大国家，”他表示，”我非常怀疑这不会变得极其混乱，而且可能需要很长时间才能结束。”
马特·古特曼（Matt Gutman） 对本文有贡献。
Airstrikes alone unlikely to result in regime change in Iran, expert warns: “It has never worked”
March 6, 2026 / 12:44 PM EST / CBS News
Washington— U.S. and Israeli airstrikes alone are unlikely to result in the ouster of the Iranian government, according to an expert in air campaigns, who said that the risks are growing for a more drawn-out war that could spread beyond the Middle East.
Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago who has studied air power for three decades, told CBS News 24/7 that history does not support the idea that bombing alone can unseat a regime and install a more friendly leader.
“The fact of the matter is, for over a century, states have been trying to topple regimes with air power alone and — I’m choosing my words carefully — it has never worked,” Pape told CBS News 24/7 on Friday. “We are heading toward the predictable result of growing risk, growing escalation. And I’m sorry to say this could go on for quite some time.”
Israeli airstrikes at the start of the war killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of other top government officials, but the country’s military and senior clerics still control the levers of power. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has continued to launch retaliatory drone and missile attacks across the region, and a clerical body has been working to select the country’s next supreme leader.
Pape said the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes failed to “produce quick and decisive victory.”
“It’s ultimately a self-defeating policy practice politically. We are injecting nationalism, and the usual result is you get a more hard-line leader. This is why President Trump is saying, ‘I don’t want that one guy,’” he said, referring to Khamenei’s son. “It’s because he would be much worse than what we had before.”
President Trump warned Friday that he will accept nothing less than “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” and has not ruled out the use of ground troops.
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The president has called for the Iranian people to seize the opportunity to overthrow the government, but he has also signaled he could accept a new leader in the current power structure if they are more amenable to the U.S. Mr. Trump has frequently cited the example of Venezuela, where American forces captured President Nicolás Maduro and installed an interim leader who is cooperating with the U.S.
Amos Yadlin, the former head of Israeli military intelligence, told CBS News on Friday that no reasonable person in the Israeli government or military believes regime change is feasible at this point.
Pape said that Iran “can do many things to prolong the war and hurt us and never fight a set-piece battle with us.”
“That’s how we lost the Vietnam War. And I’m sorry to say, we’re heading down a road where we don’t have a strategy to win,” he added.
U.S. allies in the Gulf have warned that they are running low on interceptors needed to take out Iranian missiles, CBS News reported Thursday, adding to concerns about the ability to replenish stockpiles of expensive weapons used to repel comparatively low-cost drones and missiles.
Pape said he began studying the effectiveness of bombing campaigns in the 1980s to understand how the U.S. lost in Vietnam, despite overwhelming advantages in technology and resources. He said he began working with the U.S. Air Force with the emergence of precision-guided weapons in the 1990s.
“All of a sudden you talked about intel. This was the whole idea. The idea is, ‘Wow, we have precision targeting. We’ll do this with precision intel. We really can now take down governments,’” he said. “And notice, we just can’t simply do that. We’ve tried over and over and over in the precision age. There’s a record of zero success in the last 30 years. And the reason is because the targeting is so mesmerizing, you don’t see the long war coming.”
Pape said the risk of the current conflict is that “this will not just stop at escalation in the Middle East. This will start to escalate more globally as the weeks and time goes on.” He said Iran and its proxy groups could begin to strike targets around the world.
“There’s not really a strategy here. Doubling down, talking tough and smack in front of your publics — that is the way democracies often get into these long wars,” he said. “And then those leaders basically look like embarrassments years later, because it turns out it just doesn’t work. So where is the strategy, is my question.”
Pape’s concerns mirror others expressed by analysts and experts in recent days as the outlines of the war have come into focus. Elliot Ackerman, a CBS News contributor and former CIA officer, told CBS News’ “The Takeout” earlier this week that the war is “incredibly risky.”
“It relies upon elements of Iranian civil society to rise up and take control of their government. We are toppling a regime in a region that is extremely complex. Iran is the second-largest country in the Middle East,” he said. “And I just am very skeptical that this isn’t going to get very, very messy and that it’s not going to be over for quite some time.”
Matt Gutman contributed to this report.
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