得克萨斯州和北卡罗来纳州初选后，参议院控制权争夺态势如何

Where the battle for Senate control stands after the Texas and North Carolina primaries

2026-03-06T11:00:34.158Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/senate-races-texas-north-carolina-2026-midterms

The fight for control of the US Senate is now officially underway after primaries in Texas and North Carolina delivered the first clues for Democrats and Republicans as they prepare for an eight-month march to the November midterm elections.

Democrats see some encouraging signs in Tuesday’s results about the energy in the party. Turnout in the Texas Democratic primary hit record levels for a midterm year, with more than 2.3 million ballots cast — second only to the 2008 cycle, when there was a presidential contest.

In the North Carolina primary, Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper easily clinched the Senate nomination, receiving more than 750,000 votes — compared with about 625,000 for the entire GOP field. Those numbers align with CNN polling that shows Democrats are far more motivated to vote in the midterms than Republicans, despite having dismal views of their party leaders.

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Beyond the energy edge, Democrats also stand to benefit from the clarity that came from both primaries, with Cooper and state Rep. James Talarico emerging as the party’s nominees. While former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley won the GOP Senate primary in the Tar Heel State, the party must contend with the added uncertainty and cost of a 12-week runoff in Texas between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Republicans are also grappling with other signs of a challenging political environment, with recent CNN polling showing President Donald Trump’s approval rating hitting a new low with independents as the American public increasingly questions his priorities and signals doubt that his proposals will help the country.

While the economy and cost of living remain top concerns for voters, the war with Iran could emerge as a flashpoint in the midterms. Nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the US decision to take military action in Iran, according to a CNN poll fielded shortly after the start of the attacks. Trump’s advisers are mindful of the political risks of a prolonged conflict, which has already sparked some backlash from voices in the MAGA universe.

The GOP still has the Senate math and map in its favor, with Democrats needing to gain four seats to win the majority — and several of their best opportunities resting in deeply Republican turf.

Here’s a look at where the key Senate races stand eight months from Election Day:

There weren’t any surprises Tuesday in North Carolina, which is home to one of the marquee battleground Senate races of the cycle. From Texas to Capitol Hill, Republicans are waiting to see what Trump decides in the Senate runoff — and when — with a March 18 deadline for candidates to remove their names from the May ballot.

While their matchup was formally set on Tuesday, Cooper and Whatley had been treating the North Carolina Senate race like a general election contest for some time.

The results are what strategists had long expected. Cooper, a top Democratic recruit for the cycle, received more than 90% of the vote in his primary. Whatley, who is running with Trump’s endorsement, got about 65% of the vote on the Republican side — a potential sign of work to do with GOP voters heading into the fall campaign.

North Carolina is crucial to the Democratic Party’s hopes of winning the majority, and Democrats see Cooper as having a strong profile to help the party win a Senate seat here for the first time since 2008.

Whatley, in turn, is leaning in to his ties to Trump, who won North Carolina during all three of his presidential bids. In his victory speech Tuesday, Whatley pitched himself as “a conservative champion for North Carolina who will be an ally for President Trump.”

What happens with the Republican runoff in Texas stands to have a dramatic effect in shaping the direction of the race this fall. And Trump is poised to play a decisive role in steering the outcome.

After staying neutral during the primary, the president announced Wednesday he would endorse either Cornyn or Paxton “soon” and would call on the other candidate to exit the race. Top Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have urged Trump to back Cornyn, with some believing Paxton’s long history of controversies could jeopardize their chances of holding the seat in November.

If Trump throws his support behind Cornyn, there’s no guarantee Paxton — a popular figure with the MAGA base — will drop his bid. “No, I’m staying in this race,” Paxton told Real America’s Voice this week. “I owe it to the people of Texas.”

In a later post on social media, Paxton said he “would consider dropping out” of the Senate race if GOP leaders in the chamber agreed to do away with the filibuster and pass the SAVE Act, an elections bill that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote, among other provisions.

How the runoff plays out could have Texas-sized implications for the Senate map and allocation of resources, with Republicans believing it would require significant additional spending to boost Paxton in a general election.

Talarico’s primary victory and his “politics of love” message are lifting the Democratic Party’s hopes of flipping Texas — where Democrats have not won statewide since 1994 — particularly in a potential matchup against Paxton. After her primary loss to Talarico, US Rep. Jasmine Crockett quickly urged her supporters to rally around her former rival, who performed well in parts of the state with large shares of Latino voters.

Even as the GOP race remains unsettled, Republicans swiftly moved to try to define Talarico, circulating clips online they believe could resonate with voters in the conservative-leaning state come November.

Four states are at the center of the battle for the Senate majority: North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Michigan.

To win control of the chamber, Democrats almost certainly must flip Maine and North Carolina while also holding on to seats in Georgia and Michigan. A loss in any of those would make the party’s path much more difficult.

Sen. Jon Ossoff, the lone Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state Trump won in 2024, is sitting on a massive war chest as the GOP continues jockeying over the chance to run against him in November.

No candidate has yet to emerge as the clear leader in the three-way GOP primary between US Rep. Buddy Carter, US Rep. Mike Collins and Derek Dooley, the former football coach at the University of Tennessee. While Trump has so far not endorsed in the contest, Gov. Brian Kemp is backing Dooley.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has urged Georgia leaders to coalesce around a single candidate. “We need to get it down to one candidate as soon as possible,” Scott told The Washington Examiner.“ And if we are able to do so, we have a chance to be successful there. But as long as we have three candidates, it’s gonna be tougher for us.”

The split field and the lack of Trump’s involvement raises the chances the race might not be settled on May 19. If no candidate clears the 50% majority threshold in the GOP primary, the contest will head to a June runoff, dragging out the intraparty fight and giving Ossoff a clearer path heading into November.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins, the only GOP senator running in a state former Vice President Kamala Harris carried in 2024, unboxed a pair of New Balance sneakers as she made her reelection bid official last month. “This is perfect for 2026 because I’m running,” she said in the video.

But which Democrat she will run against remains an open question. The Democratic primary between progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner and two-term Gov. Janet Mills is still three months from being decided.

Polling shows Platner currently holding an advantage — with a recent University of New Hampshire survey putting him up more than 30 points over Mills, who is favored by the party establishment, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. That suggests Democratic primary voters so far have not been swayed by the controversies surrounding Platner’s candidacy, including past offensive online posts and a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol.

The dynamics of the Iran war could become a factor in this race, particularly if US military action extends for a prolonged period of time. Democrats seized on the decision by Collins to vote against a war powers resolution aimed at requiring the president seek congressional approval for future military action against the country.

The Democratic field in Michigan remains splintered with the nominating contest in the pivotal battleground state still five months away.

Republicans believe the extended intraparty fight on the Democratic side could work to the advantage of Mike Rogers, the former GOP congressman who lost a 2024 Senate bid against Sen. Elissa Slotkin.

The Democratic race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters includes Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive former executive director of the Detroit Health Department; state Sen. Mallory McMorrow; and US Rep. Haley Stevens, a moderate who is seen as the favorite of the party establishment.

Some divisions within the primary field are beginning to play out. At a forum hosted by the United Auto Workers last month, the three candidates drew distinctions over the role of corporate political action committees in elections.

El-Sayed and McMorrow each said their campaigns are not accepting contributions from corporate PACs. Stevens did not directly answer the question and instead focused on calling for an end to Citizens United, a US Supreme Court decision that opened a flood of outside money into electoral politics. McMorrow seized on Stevens’ response, saying, “We need to know who our next senator is working for.”

Beyond the four main battleground states, Democrats and Republicans are also eyeing targets in states where the opposing party holds an advantage at this stage.

Democrats are hoping their chosen candidate in Alaska can help make a dent in the GOP majority in the Senate.

Former US Rep. Mary Peltola, a moderate running with a “fish, family, and freedom” message, was recruited into the race by Democratic leadership. She has a history winning statewide, though she lost her House reelection bid in 2024.

Peltola will face steep competition as she challenges two-term GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in a state where Trump won by double digits in his three presidential runs. Moderate GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski has backed Sullivan’s reelection bid despite endorsing Peltola in her House races in the past.

Ohio has been trending toward Republicans in recent years, but Democrats believe a strong recruit can help them expand the map here.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat to Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024, is back for another round as he challenges Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.

Brown is no stranger to competitive races and has long been aligned with the economic populism that has taken a stronger hold within the Democratic Party today. Republicans believe that the state’s shift to the right during the Trump era gives Husted a structural advantage as he seeks a full six-year term in the Senate.

Democrats face an uphill climb in this state that Trump carried by solid margins in all three of his presidential runs, but they hope the decline in the president’s approval, particularly his handling of tariffs, could work in their favor here.

US Rep. Ashley Hinson has Trump’s endorsement in the GOP primary as she attempts to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst.

The Democratic field narrowed last month when Marine Corps veteran Nathan Sage dropped out of the race and backed state Rep. Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist. Turek is facing off against state Sen. Zach Wahls, a progressive who gained national attention in 2011 when he addressed the Iowa House of Representatives, speaking in defense of marriage equality and about being raised by his two mothers.

Republicans are hoping a familiar name in New Hampshire will give them an opening in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

Democrats are optimistic they will hold onto the state given its political lean and the broader electoral environment. US Rep. Chris Pappas, who is the first gay person to represent New Hampshire in Congress, is considered the Democratic frontrunner and has won tough races for his House seat.

But Republicans think a comeback bid by former Sen. John E. Sununu, who has been out of office since 2009 and whose family has been a fixture in Granite State politics for decades, could be successful. Sununu earned Trump’s endorsement earlier this year in the primary against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.

Republicans see Minnesota as trending in their direction long-term. But the political environment might make winning there in 2026 difficult. The president’s immigration enforcement actions in Minneapolis, including the fatal shootings of two protesters by federal agents, also have emerged as a flashpoint in the state.

Democrats are confident they can defend home turf in Minnesota in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, especially with Sen. Amy Klobuchar — a popular figure in the state — running for governor. The August primary features an ideological clash between moderate Rep. Angie Craig and progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. While the state has consistently backed Democrats in presidential elections, Harris only carried it by about 4 points in 2024.

Republicans see former sportscaster Michele Tafoya as the best candidate to potentially make the seat competitive.