发布于2026年3月6日，美国东部时间上午6:00 / 更新于52分钟前 / 作者：阿里特·约翰
杰米·埃杰承认，他翻转北卡罗来纳州西部席位的道路涉及他所谓的“困难数学”。
十多年来，民主党人未在该州第11选区获得代表权，2024年特朗普总统在当前选区划分下以10个百分点的优势赢得该席位。但周二赢得民主党初选的第四代农民埃杰希望，他与社区的深厚联系能帮助他克服所在政党的声誉问题。
“因为我认识社区里的很多人，我一直是很多人的良好商业伙伴，人们看待我的时候，更多是把我当作朋友、邻居和社区成员，而不是政治党派的代表，”埃杰表示。
为了在11月重新夺回众议院控制权，全国民主党人试图将他们的争夺范围更深入地扩展到共和党传统地盘，希望像埃杰这样的候选人能让这些选区的竞争更加激烈。
但民主党人要想争夺众议院控制权，首先必须经历长达数月的初选季，在蓝、紫和倾向红色的选区中展开激烈竞争。
周二的初选结果为这一过程提供了一些线索。
投票数据显示，民主党人在中期选举前热情高涨。北卡罗来纳州民主党参议院预选中的投票人数比共和党方面多约20万人。在得克萨斯州，民主党参议院预选中的投票率是至少自1970年以来中期选举中最高的。
全国民主党人在北卡罗来纳州第11选区和得克萨斯州第15选区的初选中选出了他们青睐的候选人，他们希望拉丁音乐明星鲍比·普利多能在特朗普2024年以18个百分点优势赢得的席位中展开激烈角逐。
埃杰和普利多的胜利对党内温和派来说是个利好，该派一直支持那些适合其选区特点、即便在某些进步理念上有所分歧的候选人。
“欢迎政治行动委员会（Welcome PAC）的联合创始人、支持这两位候选人的中间派组织成员利亚姆·克尔表示：“如果你给选民一个明确的选择，你就能摆脱拖累你党的糟糕政党品牌的影响。我认为两党都没有下足够的‘险注’，也没有充分扩大他们的争夺范围。”
埃杰表示，他的祖父曾作为民主党人代表该选区，他成长过程中所了解的民主党是代表劳动人民的，但他的政党在过去十年未能传达出清晰的信息。该党需要“关注影响劳动人民的问题”并“以人们熟悉的方式传达这一信息”。
拉丁格莱美奖得主普利多因个人反对堕胎而受到对手批评。全国民主党人认为，他的社会保守派形象在11月对阵两届共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹时可能会助他一臂之力。
“我们长期以来一直遭受重创，我们必须找出原因，”普利多在得克萨斯州法尔的竞选集会上告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN），“还有很多人需要我们去争取回来。”
民主党人仍面临至少六个激烈的初选，包括科罗拉多州、内布拉斯加州和加利福尼亚州的关键摇摆选区。
“初选会自行解决，”资深民主党策略师亚当·博齐表示，“无论这些初选中谁获胜，民主党的势头都在增长。”
共和党人同样面临众议院初选的挑战。在得克萨斯州两个旨在有利于共和党的选区中，特朗普盟友、偶尔反对“让美国再次伟大”运动的众议员丹·克伦肖被州众议员史蒂夫·托特击败。此外，周三承认与一名后来自杀身亡的工作人员有染的美国众议员托尼·冈萨雷斯，也被迫在5月26日与活动家布兰登·赫雷拉进行决选。
周四，众议院共和党领袖呼吁冈萨雷斯退选。如果他在3月18日前退选，赫雷拉将无需决选即可成为该党候选人。
民主党人看到广阔的战场，共和党人视为幻想
众议院民主党竞选机构——民主党国会竞选委员会上月宣布第二次扩大其众议院目标席位范围，新增了包括蒙大拿州第1选区在内的席位，该选区现任共和党众议员瑞安·津克本周宣布不寻求连任；以及科罗拉多州第5选区，该选区现任共和党众议员杰夫·克兰克去年被民主党挑战者筹款击败。
“进入中期选举，政治环境正在朝着对我们有利的方向发展，因为公众对共和党人的失望情绪日益增加，”民主党国会竞选委员会发言人维特·谢尔顿表示，“我们有更优秀的候选人、更有力的信息，最重要的是——我们得到了美国人民的支持。”
共和党人则认为他们处于进攻态势。
“他们可以幻想‘扩大’战场，但实际上他们是在我们的地盘上作战，他们将浪费资金去捍卫弱势的现任议员并处理混乱的初选，”众议院共和党竞选机构全国共和党国会委员会发言人迈克·马林内拉在一份声明中表示。
共和党人表示，在民主党人能在共和党选区竞争之前，他们首先需要处理初选问题，即温和派候选人正受到更进步候选人的挑战。
“他们首先需要可能踩刹车，审视他们目前面临的初选问题，”2020年曾在全国共和党国会委员会工作的共和党策略师克里斯·帕克表示。
重新划分选区进展
全国性的中期重新划分选区斗争仍在法庭和州议会中激烈进行。截至目前，在得克萨斯州、密苏里州、俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州重新划分选区后，共和党人在9个选区中获得了优势。在加利福尼亚州选民通过新的民主党主导选区划分以及犹他州法院裁决创建蓝色选区后，民主党人可能翻转多达6个席位。
但这一平衡可能在未来几个月发生变化。密苏里州民主党人希望推动一项公投，以推翻共和党人重新划分的新选区地图。佛罗里达州共和党州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯已呼吁在4月召开特别会议重新划分该州选区。
弗吉尼亚州民主党人已提出新的选区地图，如果4月公投通过，将针对四个共和党人控制的席位。弗吉尼亚州最高法院本周解除了下级法院对公投的禁令，前总统奥巴马录制了一则广告支持该提案，提前于周五开始的早期投票。
两党都在等待最高法院对《选举权法》案件的裁决，该裁决预计将对少数族裔占多数的选区造成打击。
Democrats see new openings for House wins in Trump country after first midterm races
Published Mar 6, 2026, 6:00 AM ET / Updated 52 min ago / By Arit John
Jamie Ager acknowledged that his path to flipping his western North Carolina seat involves what he called “difficult math.”
Democrats haven’t represented the state’s 11th District in more than a decade, and President Donald Trump carried the seat by 10 points in 2024 under its current district lines. But Ager, a fourth-generation farmer who won the Democratic primary Tuesday, is hoping his deep ties to the community will help overcome his party’s reputation.
“Because I know so many people in the community, I’ve been a good business partner to a lot of folks, people see me less in the context of political partisanship, and more in the context of a friend, a neighbor, community member,” Ager said.
In their bid to take back the House in November, national Democrats have sought to expand their map deeper into Republican territory, hoping that candidates like Ager can make the races more competitive.
But before Democrats can contest control of the US House, they must first make their way through a monthslong primary season full of competitive primaries in blue, purple and red-leaning districts.
Tuesday’s primaries offered some clues as to how that process could go.
Turnout figures suggest Democrats have high enthusiasm on their side heading into the midterms. Roughly 200,000 more votes were cast in North Carolina’s Democratic contest for US Senate than on the Republican side. And in Texas, Democratic turnout in the Senate primary was the highest for any midterm contest since at least 1970.
National Democrats got their preferred candidates in primaries for North Carolina’s 11th District and Texas’ 15th, where they hope Tejano music star Bobby Pulido can run a competitive race in a seat Trump carried by 18 points in 2024.
Ager and Pulido’s victories were a boon to the moderate wing of the party, which has backed candidates who fit their districts even if they buck some progressive ideas.
“If you give voters a distinct choice, you can escape the gravity of the terrible party brand weighing you down,” said Liam Kerr, the co-founder of Welcome PAC, a centrist group that endorsed the two candidates. “I think the parties, both parties, don’t make enough longshot bets. They don’t stretch the map enough.”
Ager, whose grandfather represented the district as a Democrat, said the version of the party he grew up with represented working people, but his party has failed to communicate a clear message over the last decade. The party needs to “focus on issues that affect working people” and “communicate that message in ways that people are familiar with.”
Pulido, a Latin Grammy winner, was criticized by his opponent for his personal opposition to abortion. National Democrats believe his socially conservative profile could help him in November against two-term GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz.
“We’ve been getting our butts kicked for a long time. And we have to find out why that is,” Pulido told CNN at his watch party in Pharr, Texas. “And there’s a lot of people that we’ve got to go bring back.”
Democrats are still facing at least half a dozen competitive primaries, including in key swing districts in Colorado, Nebraska, and California.
“The primaries will work themselves out,” said Adam Bozzi, a longtime Democratic strategist. “Regardless of who wins some of these primaries, the energy is on the Democratic side.”
Republicans are also facing challenging House primaries. In two Texas districts drawn to favor the GOP, Trump ally and occasional MAGA antagonist Rep. Dan Crenshaw was defeated by state Rep. Steve Toth. And US Rep. Tony Gonzales, who on Wednesday acknowledged an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide, was also forced into a May 26 runoff against activist Brandon Herrera.
House Republican leaders on Thursday called on Gonzales to withdraw from the race. If he does so by March 18, Herrera would become the party nominee without a runoff.
Democrats see a wide map; Republicans see a fantasy
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House Democrats’ campaign arm, announced a second expansion of its House map last month, adding seats, including Montana’s 1st Congressional District, where incumbent GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke announced this week he won’t seek reelection, and Colorado’s 5th District, where incumbent GOP Rep. Jeff Crank was outraised by a Democratic challenger last year.
“Going into the midterms, the political environment is breaking our way as the public sours on Republicans’ broken promises,” said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton. “We have the better candidates, the better message, and most importantly – we have the American people on our side.”
Republicans have argued that they’re the party on offense.
Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, House Republicans’ campaign arm, called the efforts to reach into Trump territory “political hallucinations.”
“They can fantasize about ‘expanding’ the map all they want, but they’re operating on our turf, and they’ll be wasting their money defending their weak incumbents and stitching together their messy primaries,” he said in a statement.
Before Democrats can compete in Republican districts, they have to contend with crowded primaries where moderates are being challenged by more progressive candidates, Republicans say.
“They first need to maybe pump the brakes and take a look at the primary problem they have going on,” said Chris Pack, a Republican strategist who worked for the NRCC in 2020.
Where redistricting stands
The nationwide mid-cycle redistricting battle is still being waged in courtrooms and state capitals. As of now, Republicans have gained an advantage in nine districts, after redrawing maps in Texas, Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina. Democrats could flip as many as six seats, after California voters passed new Democratic maps and a Utah court decision created a blue district in the state.
But that balance could tilt in the coming months. Democrats in Missouri are hoping to put up a ballot initiative to vote to overturn their new, Republican-drawn maps. In Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has called for a special session in April to redraw his state’s maps.
In Virginia, Democrats have introduced new maps that would target four Republican-held seats if approved by voters in an April referendum. The Virginia Supreme Court this week lifted a lower court’s stay on the referendum and former President Barack Obama taped an ad supporting the proposal ahead of early voting beginning on Friday.
And both parties are awaiting a decision from the Supreme Court on a Voting Rights Act case that is expected to deal a blow to majority-minority districts.
发表回复