2026年3月5日 23:32 UTC / 路透社
Shipping containers are stacked up at the port of Oakland, in Oakland, California, U.S., February 24, 2026. REUTERS/Carlos Barria Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
华盛顿，3月5日（路透社） – 联邦法官周三下令美国政府开始退还唐纳德·特朗普总统紧急关税的退款，美国最高法院在2月底裁定这些关税非法。预算分析师估计，这最终可能会向进口商退还1680亿至1820亿美元。
退款的具体机制尚不清楚，但国际贸易法院高级法官理查德·伊顿（Richard Eaton）下令美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）在周五报告其初步退款计划构想，以避免数千起个人诉讼。
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伊顿在周三的听证会上表示：“我想明确告诉海关部门，他们必须退还所有非法征收的款项。”
以下是关于关税收入的估算和官方数据：
宾夕法尼亚大学佩恩-沃顿预算模型
该宾夕法尼亚大学财政研究机构的经济学家估计，美国海关与边境保护局从2025年2月4日至2026年2月23日期间，依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收的关税总收入高达1820亿美元。
应路透社要求进行的这项估算，基于一个从头构建的预测模型，该模型交叉参考了233个国家约11,000种产品类别的关税数据。
佩恩-沃顿使用另一种方法得出第二个估算，即IEEPA关税收入约为1770亿美元。经济学家通过计算截至12月14日美国财政部海关收入中IEEPA关税所占的百分比，然后将相同比例应用于后续的海关收入，得出这一数字。
美国海关与边境保护局在12月14日最后一次报告的IEEPA关税评估额为1335亿美元。
耶鲁大学预算实验室
截至2月19日，IEEPA关税收入总额为1680亿美元（新窗口打开），该数据基于美国海关与边境保护局截至12月14日的评估数据的前瞻性预测，因此耶鲁团队的估算略低于佩恩-沃顿模型的估计。
耶鲁团队估计，截至2026年1月，特朗普在2025年实施的所有关税使经通胀调整后的平均海关收入比2022-2024年的平均水平高出1948亿美元。其中包括2025年全年增加的1747亿美元和2026年1月增加的201亿美元。
耶鲁实验室表示，在最高法院裁定IEEPA关税非法之前，美国实际有效关税税率为9.9%。
临时关税收入估算
最高法院裁定后，特朗普政府根据《1974年贸易法》第122条实施了临时10%的全球关税，并宣布将提高至15%。
负责联邦预算责任委员会（CRFB）估计，在法律允许的150天有效期内，10%的关税将产生约350亿美元的净新收入，若税率升至15%，收入将增至约500亿美元。
国会必须批准任何延期，但如果国会批准延期，或者通过其他关税授权复制该收入，CRFB估计未来十年内，10%税率下收入将超过9000亿美元，15%税率下将超过1.3万亿美元。
CRFB表示，在生效期间，第122条关税将替代因最高法院裁定而损失的收入的一半以上（10%税率时）和四分之三以上（15%税率时）。
佩恩-沃顿估计，第122条关税在15%税率下的10年总收入略高，为1.51万亿美元。该机构估计，如果这些关税持续一年，2026年的收入可能达到1360亿美元。
报道：大卫·劳德尔（David Lawder）；编辑：辛西娅·奥斯特曼（Cynthia Osterman）
我们的标准：汤森路透信托原则（新窗口打开）
Trump’s tariff refunds may total up to $182 billion, estimates find
March 5, 2026 11:32 PM UTC / Reuters
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Shipping containers are stacked up at the port of Oakland, in Oakland, California, U.S., February 24, 2026. REUTERS/Carlos Barria Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
WASHINGTON, March 5 (Reuters) – A federal judge on Wednesday ordered the U.S. government to begin paying refunds of President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court deemed illegal in late February. This could ultimately return $168 billion to $182 billion to importers, budget analysts estimate.
The mechanism for doing that is far from clear, but Court of International Trade Senior Judge Richard Eaton ordered the Customs and Border Protection agency to report on Friday its initial ideas for a refund plan that would avoid thousands of individual lawsuits.
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“I want to make it clear to the customs service that they have to refund any money that was unlawfully collected,” Eaton told a hearing on Wednesday.
Here is a look at estimates and official data on tariff collections:
PENN WHARTON BUDGET MODEL
Economists at this University of Pennsylvania fiscal research group estimate that CBP has collected up to $182 billion in gross revenue from tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act between February 4, 2025 and February 23, 2026.
The estimate, produced at Reuters’ request, is derived from a ground-up forecasting model that cross-references tariffs on about 11,000 product categories across 233 countries.
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Penn-Wharton used an alternative method to reach a second estimate of about $177 billion in IEEPA tariff revenues. Economists arrived at that figure by calculating the percentage of total U.S. Treasury customs receipts that were IEEPA tariffs through December 14, then applying that same share to later customs receipts.
CBP last reported $133.5 billion in IEEPA tariff assessments on December 14.
BUDGET LAB AT YALE UNIVERSITY
IEEPA tariff revenue through February 19 totaled $168 billion, opens new tab, based on forward projections of the CBP assessments data through December 14, putting the Yale group slightly lower than the PWBM estimates.
The Yale group estimated that as of January 2026, all tariffs imposed by Trump in 2025 raised the average inflation-adjusted customs revenue by $194.8 billion above the 2022-2024 average. This includes an increase of $174.7 billion over the course of 2025 and $20.1 billion in January 2026.
The Yale lab said that it had calculated a 9.9% effective U.S. tariff rate prior to the Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs.
ESTIMATES OF TEMPORARY TARIFF REVENUE
After the Supreme Court ruling, the Trump administration imposed a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and announced it would rise to 15%.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the 10% tariff would generate about $35 billion of net new revenue over the 150 days it is allowed to be in effect under the law, rising to about $50 billion at a 15% rate.
Congress would have to approve any extension, but if it did so, or the revenue was replicated through other tariff authorities, CRFB estimates the revenue over the next decade would exceed $900 billion at 10% or $1.3 trillion at 15%.
While in effect, the Section 122 tariffs would replace over half the revenue lost due to the Supreme Court ruling at 10% and over three-quarters at 15%, CRFB said.
Penn Wharton estimates the 10-year total revenue from Section 122 duties somewhat higher, at $1.51 trillion assuming a 15% rate. It estimates that 2026 revenue from these duties could total $136 billion if left in place for a year.
Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Cynthia Osterman
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