2026-03-03 / CNN政治版
分析：艾伦·布莱克
更新于26分钟前
更新时间：2026年3月3日，美国东部时间下午2:11
发布时间：2026年3月3日，美国东部时间下午1:31
唐纳德·特朗普 中东 选举 民调
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美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二在椭圆形办公室与德国总理弗里德里希·默茨会面时旁观。
安德鲁·卡巴莱罗-雷诺兹/法新社/盖蒂图片社
prominent conservatives（著名保守派人士） 对特朗普总统对伊朗发动战争的态度与去年他打击伊朗核设施以及两个月前打击委内瑞拉时截然不同，他们开始表示异议。
梅根·凯利称她对我们的行动“存在严重疑虑”。塔克·卡尔森称之为“绝对令人作呕和邪恶”（在6月袭击事件后态度有所缓和）。福克斯新闻主持人威尔·凯恩质疑任务的明确性。众多著名保守派网红也附和了这些担忧。
但这些评论在更广泛的政治右翼中能代表多少情绪呢？
答案是“不太能”。共和党人总体上支持美国采取军事行动——在一项新的CNN民调中，支持率为77%，反对率为23%。这对于让共和党议员保持一致至关重要。（美国对伊朗的打击总体上不受欢迎，CNN民调显示反对率为59%，支持率为41%。）
不过，与特朗普之前的对外打击不同，与伊朗的战争可能会挑战他维持基本盘团结的能力。
这是因为他的基本盘态度相当冷淡——甚至在某些方面近乎怀疑。
如果冲突持续导致更广泛的战争和更多美军伤亡，这对以“结束战争而非发动战争”为竞选口号的总统来说将难以自圆其说。
尽管共和党支持率很高——路透社-益普索民调显示55%-13%，《华盛顿邮报》民调显示81%-12%，但对特朗普仍有警示信号。
首先，支持对伊朗发动打击的共和党人态度并不强烈。
在CNN民调中，“强烈支持”的共和党人仅占37%，《华盛顿邮报》民调中为54%。而路透社-益普索民调仅提供两个选项，显示45%的共和党人要么反对打击（13%），要么不愿表态（32%）。
最后这项民调显示，支持此次行动的共和党人比6月打击伊朗时明显减少。当前55%的支持率较夏季的69%有所下降。
当前民调还显示，右翼内部对我们如何走到这一步以及未来走向存在真正的保留意见。
在共和党人中：
- 在《华盛顿邮报》民调以及美军发动打击前进行的哥伦比亚广播公司新闻-优阁民调中，约三分之一的共和党人表示特朗普没有明确解释任务目标。
- 《华盛顿邮报》民调中，只有54%的人希望特朗普继续打击伊朗，而他确实正在这么做。
- 在CNN民调中，仅41%的人强烈支持推翻伊朗政府。
- 《华盛顿邮报》民调显示，51%的人至少“有些”担心美国陷入伊朗全面战争。
这些发现的共同点是，我们在特朗普此前对伊朗和委内瑞拉的打击中也看到过类似情况：他的基本盘似乎更能接受短暂任务、快速达成目标且无后续麻烦。
但如果情况并非如此呢？如果冲突长期化会怎样？
我们已经看到6名美军士兵死亡，十多人重伤。路透社-益普索民调显示，42%的共和党人表示如果美军士兵伤亡，他们更可能反对此次行动。
我们还看到汽油价格开始飙升，路透社-益普索民调显示34%的共和党人表示这会让他们更可能反对此次行动。
此外，根据CNN民调，46%的共和党人对特朗普在伊朗问题上使用武力的决策“信任度一般或更低”。
此前对伊朗和委内瑞拉的打击并不受欢迎，但并未成为重大问题，正如特朗普的许多争议性行动一样，这些只是短暂的新闻，政治圈很快就转移了注意力。
而对伊朗的战争似乎发展得不同。
这有点像明尼阿波利斯的移民镇压事件。特朗普的驱逐计划的部分内容在两名美国公民被错误驱逐后长期不受欢迎——例如基尔马尔·阿布雷戈·加西亚的错误驱逐、未经正当程序的其他驱逐、使用蒙面特工等事件。但明尼阿波利斯数周的事件让人们的目光聚焦于此，难以忽视——这对特朗普不利。
伊朗局势是否会以同样方式发展还有待观察。总统的基本盘在过去十年中对他颇为宽容，即便他的行为明显违背承诺。他可能会在军事行动成为负担前迅速结束战争。
周一，特朗普在接受《纽约邮报》采访时淡化了民意调查，称这“不是个投票问题”。
“我认为人们实际上对正在发生的事情印象深刻，”他说，“我认为这是一个沉默的——如果你做一个真正的民意调查，沉默的民意调查——就像一个沉默的大多数。”
但特朗普曾利用反对对外战争的立场，将许多原本可能不倾向于政治的人纳入自己的阵营。如果对伊朗的战争持续下去，他可能会发现很难说服这些人继续支持自己。
即便如此，共和党人的容忍度目前似乎相当有限。
而看到著名保守派对特朗普的对外冒险主义表示怀疑，无疑会给人们“敢于”表达反对的许可。
唐纳德·特朗普 中东 选举 民调
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How much is Trump’s base on board with war with Iran? It’s complicated
2026-03-03 / CNN Politics
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
Updated 26 min ago
Updated Mar 3, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
PUBLISHED Mar 3, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Donald Trump The Middle East Election polls
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President Donald Trump looks on during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office on Tuesday.
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Prominent conservatives are balking at President Donald Trump’s war with Iran in ways they didn’t when he struck Iran’s nuclear facilities last year and Venezuela two months ago.
Megyn Kelly said she had “serious doubts about what we are doing.” Tucker Carlson called it “absolutely disgusting and evil” (after being a little more muted following the June strikes). Fox News host Will Cain has questioned the clarity of the mission. And a number of prominent conservative influencers have echoed those concerns.
But just how representative are these comments of the sentiments on the broader political right?
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The answer right now is “not very.” Republicans have largely supported the US decision to take military action — including 77% to 23% in a new CNN poll. And that matters a great deal when it comes to keeping GOP lawmakers in line. (The US strikes on Iran are unpopular overall, including by a 59%-41% margin in the CNN poll.)
Still, the war with Iran could challenge Trump’s ability to hold his base together in a way his previous foreign strikes did not.
That’s because his base is pretty lukewarm — even bordering on skeptical in some ways.
And a prolonged conflict that leads to broader war and more US casualties could be a tough sell for the president who campaigned on ending wars rather than starting them.
Even with strong GOP support — 55%-13% in a Reuters-Ipsos poll and 81%-12% in a Washington Post poll — there are warning signs for Trump.
For one, the Republicans who say they support the US strikes on Iran don’t do so very strongly.
The percentage of Republicans who “strongly” approved was just 37% in the CNN poll and 54% in the Washington Post poll. The Reuters-Ipsos poll, which offered just two options, showed 45% of Republicans either opposing the strikes (13%) or declining to weigh in (32%).
And that last poll actually showed significantly fewer Republicans supporting this mission than the June strikes. The 55% support now is down from 69% in the summer.
The polls today also show some real reservations on the right with how we’ve gotten to where we are today and what happens from here.
Among Republicans:
- About one-third said Trump hadn’t clearly explained the mission, in both the Washington Post poll and a CBS News-YouGov poll conducted right before the US launched strikes.
- Just 54% in the Washington Post poll said they wanted Trump to continue striking Iran, which he’s doing.
- Just 41% strongly favored overthrowing the Iranian government in the CNN poll.
- 51% were at least “somewhat” concerned about the US getting bogged down in a full-scale war in the Washington Post poll.
The thread that runs through many of these findings is something we’ve seen after Trump’s previous strikes in Iran and Venezuela: His base seems to be much more okay with brief missions with quick deliverables and no blowback.
But what happens when that’s not the case? What happens when it’s more of a prolonged war?
We’ve already seen six US soldiers killed and more than a dozen seriously injured. And the Reuters-Ipsos poll showed 42% of Republicans said they’d be more likely to oppose the mission if US troops were killed or injured.
In this US Navy handout image, an F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron 14, taxis the flight deck after an arrested landing on Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in support of Operation Epic Fury on March 1, 2026.
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We’re also seeing gas prices start to spike, and 34% of Republicans said that would make them more likely to oppose the mission in the Reuters-Ipsos poll.
Also, 46% of Republicans trust Trump “moderately” or less than that when it comes to making decisions about the use of force in Iran, per the CNN poll.
The previous strikes in Iran and Venezuela were not popular. But they didn’t become major issues because, as with so many controversial Trump actions, they were brief stories from which the political world quickly moved on.
The war in Iran appears to be developing differently.
It’s a little like the immigration crackdown in Minneapolis. Aspects of Trump’s deportation program were unpopular long before two US citizens were killed — thanks to the mistaken deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, other deportations without due process, the use of masked agents and other events. But the weekslong saga in Minneapolis trained people’s eyes on the situation in a way that made it difficult to avert their gazes — which did not help Trump.
It remains to be seen if Iran will pan out the same way. The president’s base has given him plenty of berth over the last decade, even when his actions transparently violated his promises. And he could try to wrap up military action quickly before it becomes a liability.
In comments to the New York Post on Monday, Trump downplayed public opinion surveys and said it’s “not a question of polling.”
“I think people are very impressed with what is happening, actually,” he said. “I think it’s a silent — if you did a real poll, the silent poll — and it’s like a silent majority.”
But Trump used an opposition to foreign wars to bring into his coalition lots of people who might not otherwise be politically inclined. To the extent the war with Iran continues, he could find it difficult to convince those people to stay in his corner.
Even Republicans’ tolerance seems to be quite limited right now.
And seeing prominent conservatives express skepticism about Trump’s foreign adventurism could certainly give people the permission structure to balk.
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