分析：艾伦·布雷克
1小时59分钟前发布
2026年2月26日，美国东部时间上午5:00
唐纳德·特朗普总统在周二国会联席会议上发表国情咨文演说。
（肯尼·霍尔斯顿/Pool/Getty Images）
唐纳德·特朗普总统在2024年总统选举中获胜，当时他的主要对手、时任总统乔·拜登因对自身年龄和心智敏锐度的担忧而退选。
但特朗普任期一年多后，民调显示美国民众不仅对其工作表现的不满情绪日益增加，对其心智能力的担忧也在加剧。
这种不安程度虽不及拜登退选时（拜登退选时已81岁）的水平，但随着79岁的特朗普（特朗普）的年龄增长，这一问题正逐渐成为民众关注的焦点。
事实上，近期多项民调显示，多数美国人以某种方式质疑特朗普的心智能力。甚至许多共和党人也对此表示担忧。
最引人注目的民调来自周二，正值特朗普第二任期首次发表国情咨文演讲，此次演讲时长创下他向国会发表演讲的最长纪录。
路透社与益普索联合民调显示，61%的美国人认为特朗普”因年龄增长变得行为古怪”。甚至有30%的共和党人也认同这一观点。
这项调查让人回想起特朗普第一任期的一些调查，当时许多美国人开始质疑他的心智敏锐度。但在2021年美国国会山袭击事件后， Quinnipiac大学民调显示，认为特朗普”心智不稳定”的登记选民比例接近50%，但从未超过多数——更不用说达到61%了。（当然，”行为古怪”与”不稳定”并非完全相同，但两者性质相近。）
路透社与益普索民调还显示，认为特朗普”心智敏锐、能够应对挑战”的美国人比例从2023年9月的54%下降至今日的45%。
但特朗普（他经常吹嘘自己通过认知测试）的情况远不及拜登；2024年7月拜登退选当月，仅有约四分之一的美国人认为他心智敏锐、能够应对挑战。
其他民调也印证了这些发现，包括上月CNN的一项调查。
该调查显示，认为特朗普”有足够的精力和敏锐度有效担任总统”的比例从2023年底的53%降至今日的46%。
这46%的比例仍远高于2023年拜登的支持率（在25%至32%之间）。
《华盛顿邮报》与美国广播公司新闻、益普索上月联合民调显示，多数受访者认为特朗普缺乏有效履职所需的心智敏锐度（56%）和身体健康（51%）。
前者较2023年5月上升了13个百分点，后者上升幅度更大——23个百分点。
这些数字虽不及拜登任期后期的水平（当时两项指标均在60%以上），但对特朗普心智敏锐度存疑的比例（56%）实际上与拜登任期此时的情况相近。2022年2月，拜登在这一问题上的支持率为54%。
最后，皮尤研究中心上月的一项调查也显示类似结果。
该调查显示，至少”非常有信心”特朗普具备履职所需心智能力的美国人比例从一年前的39%降至今日的32%。
认为其具备足够身体条件的比例从35%降至28%。
与路透社-益普索民调类似，共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士中的相关比例也值得关注：对特朗普心智能力”非常有信心”的比例从75%降至66%；对其身体条件”非常有信心”的比例从65%降至55%。
因此，在路透社和皮尤的民调中，特朗普的支持者群体中约三分之一（或更多）的人对这一问题表示担忧。
同样，拜登的整体数据更差。2024年4月，选民对其心智能力”非常有信心”的比例仅为21%，身体条件”非常有信心”的比例为15%。CNN民调显示，其支持者中高达半数认为拜登缺乏必要的精力和敏锐度。
但为什么特朗普在这些指标上的支持率会下降？
一种解释是，这些数字随其整体支持率下降而下降。随着人们对特朗普的不满加剧，可能会更负面地看待他时常出现的怪异公开表现。
但我们也看到，即使是一些倾向于支持特朗普的美国人也开始表达这些担忧。这可能是因为他的言辞失误（如反复混淆冰岛和格陵兰岛）。此外，公众对特朗普手上的瘀伤、是否在公开活动中打瞌睡的关注，以及白宫对其医疗检查结果披露迟缓、公开日程安排更为有限等因素，都可能促使一些人比以往更多地质疑他的能力。
无论如何，有一点很明确：有史以来当选的最年长总统现在必须面对这一问题，就像几年前前任总统（拜登）所面临的情况一样。
Polls show concerns about Trump’s mental acuity increasing
Analysis by Aaron Blake
1 hr 59 min ago
PUBLISHED Feb 26, 2026, 5:00 AM ET
President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address during a joint session of Congress on Tuesday.
Kenny Holston/Pool/Getty Images
President Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential race after his initial opponent, then-President Joe Biden, withdrew over worries about his age and mental sharpness.
But a year-plus into Trump’s four-year term, polls suggest the American people aren’t just increasingly unhappy with his job performance; they’re increasingly concerned about his mental capacity as well.
The unease is not at the levels it was with Biden, who was 81 when he dropped out of the race, but it’s growing as an issue for the 79-year-old Trump.
In fact, multiple recent polls show a majority of Americans questioning it in one way or another. And even many Republicans seem to have concerns.
Perhaps the most striking poll came Tuesday, ahead of Trump’s first State of the Union address of his second term, which beat his own record for the longest speech to Congress.
The Reuters-Ipsos poll showed 61% of Americans agreed that Trump has “become erratic with age.” Even 30% of Republicans agreed with that sentiment.
The survey harks back to some surveys in Trump’s first term, when many Americans grew to question his mental acuity. But while the percentage of registered voters saying he wasn’t “mentally stable” approached 50% in Quinnipiac University polling following the attack on the US Capitol in 2021, it never crested a majority — much less hitting 61%. (“Erratic” is, of course, not the same as “unstable.” But they are along the same lines.)
The Reuters-Ipsos poll also showed a decrease in the percentage of Americans who say Trump is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges.” That number has dropped from 54% in September 2023 to 45% today.
But Trump — who often boasts about acing cognitive tests and who spoke for an hour and 47 minutes on Tuesday night — is still nowhere close to where Biden was; only around one-quarter of Americans said Biden was mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges in July 2024, the month he dropped out of the race.
Other polls echo these findings, including one from CNN last month.
That survey showed the percentage saying Trump has the “stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president” declining from 53% in late 2023 to 46% today.
That 46% is still well clear of where Biden was in 2023 (between 25% and 32%).
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll last week showed majorities said Trump didn’t have the mental sharpness (56%) or physical health (51%) it takes to serve effectively.
The former is up 13 points from May 2023, while the latter is up even more – by 23 points.
Those numbers aren’t where Biden was late in his presidency, when he was in the 60s on both measures. But the percentage who doubts Trump’s mental sharpness (56%) is actually similar to where Biden was at this point in his term. In February 2022, Biden was at 54% on this question.
And, finally, is a Pew Research Center survey conducted last month.
It showed the percentage of Americans who are at least “very confident” that Trump has the mental fitness to do the job dropping from 39% a year ago to 32% today.
The percentage who are at least “very confident” that he has the physical fitness has dropped from 35% to 28%.
And similar to the Reuters-Ipsos poll, the numbers among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents should raise some eyebrows. The percentage of them who are “very confident” in Trump’s mental fitness has dropped from 75% to 66%. On physical fitness, he’s dropped from 65% to 55%.
So in both the Reuters and Pew polls, we’re seeing 3 in 10 people (or more) in Trump’s own base express some concern about this issue.
Again, Biden had worse numbers overall. By April 2024, the percentage of voters saying they were “very confident” was only 21% for mental fitness and 15% for physical fitness. CNN polling showed as much as half of his base said Biden didn’t have the requisite stamina and sharpness.
But why might Trump’s numbers on these measures be worsening?
One explanation is that they’re simply falling alongside his popularity. As people sour on Trump overall, perhaps they’re more likely to view his often-strange public performances in a more negative light.
But we’re also seeing these concerns register even with some Americans who are more inclined to view Trump favorably. It’s certainly possible that his verbal stumbles — things like repeatedly mixing up Iceland and Greenland — are registering. It’s also possible that scrutiny of bruises on Trump’s hands and whether he’s fallen asleep during public events — as well as the White House’s slow disclosures about his medical testing and his more limited public schedule — are leading some people to raise more questions than they otherwise might.
Regardless, what’s clear is that the oldest president ever elected is now having to deal with this issue, just like the previous holder of that title did a few years ago.
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