2026-02-24T17:25:00-0500 / CBS新闻
当被问及如果能在今晚发表国情咨文，他们会如何描述美国的国情时，大多数美国人会使用”分裂”这个词。
这种关于分裂的看法贯穿了各届政府——在乔·拜登的最后一次国情咨文之前，大多数人也将国家描述为”分裂”，而现在持这种看法的人更多了。
“分裂”远超过其他描述词，如”强大”或”繁荣”，尽管这些词的使用比例今年也有所上升，且高于2024年拜登执政时期。
但是，民主党人和共和党人都希望总统谈论经济和生活成本。
大多数人仍然认为经济状况糟糕——多年来都是如此，可追溯到疫情时期——但近期看法相对有所改善，也高于本任期去年秋天的低点。
总统谈论经济的方式现在可能至关重要：在国情咨文演讲前，大多数美国人认为特朗普先生将价格和通胀的情况描述得比实际更好。
还有大多数人表示，他尚未解释针对伊朗的潜在军事行动。
很少有人希望听到关于关税的内容。大多数人仍然反对——或者说，在最近最高法院做出裁决后，反对总统独自设定关税的想法。美国人认为，关税政策至少应涉及国会，即便不是国会专属的职权。
更广泛地说，当被问及与一年前相比国家状况如何时，共和党人已经认为现在情况更好。他们对未来几年也普遍持乐观态度。不过，大多数美国人总体上感觉国家状况在恶化。
和近年来的总统一样，他的党派支持者更有可能观看今晚的演讲。
比较数字显示”下滑”和”疲软”描述国家状况，但党派观点相反
当拜登执政准备发表最后一次国情咨文时，共和党人使用负面词汇的比例高于民主党人。而现在，在特朗普国情咨文演讲前，民主党人使用负面词汇的比例更高。
美国人想听什么？
大多数人希望听到以经济为重点的话题，如生活成本和美国经济，无论他们是否计划观看演讲。
这些问题长期以来一直是美国人关注的焦点。
许多人还表示，有必要了解移民与海关执法局（ICE）的行动、驱逐行动以及总体移民政策，还有医疗保健和处方药问题。
希望听到非常政治性内容的人少得多，比如对民主党人的批评或对共和党人的支持——或者关于最高法院的内容。
不过，这不仅是提出话题的问题，而是总统描述问题的方式。大多数人仍然认为特朗普将价格和通胀描述得比实际更好。
他自己党内也有相当一部分人——约40%——持这种看法。这种看法在公众意识中已经存在一段时间了。
关税、价格和经济
大多数美国人反对对进口商品征收新关税，就像上周美国最高法院做出裁决之前一样（在其他近期民调中，他们表示关税会提高价格）。
谁应该决定关税？跨党派的美国人都认为国会至少在关税政策制定中应发挥一定作用。很少有人认为特朗普应独自决定。
具体来说，共和党人认为这是特朗普与国会合作的问题：很少有人认为特朗普应独自制定政策，即使是那些总体上更支持关税的人。
大多数人仍然对国家经济持负面评价（多年来一直如此），但认为经济状况良好的比例有所上升，高于本任期去年秋天的低点。
在过去一年的前期民调中，美国人常说价格是他们评估经济的主要方式，在他第二任期内，民众认为政府对经济的关注不够。如今，特朗普在经济和通胀问题上的净负面评价持续数月。
伊朗问题
许多人也认为今晚有必要讨论伊朗问题。
一个原因是：大多数人认为特朗普政府尚未明确说明美国对伊朗可能采取军事行动的立场。
总体而言，美国在阻止伊朗发展核武器方面存在分歧——反对者略多于支持者。
认为特朗普政府未明确说明的人大多反对军事行动。
党派差异也很明显：大多数民主党人和无党派人士会反对军事行动，但绝大多数共和党人会支持。
（背景：大多数共和党人，尤其是”让美国再次伟大”运动支持者，支持去年夏天美国对伊朗核设施的轰炸，以及最近在委内瑞拉的军事行动。）
驱逐与移民与海关执法局（ICE）
大多数人仍然认为ICE在阻止或拘留人员时的行动”过于严厉”，这种看法已经持续了一段时间。
这种看法与对整个驱逐计划的总体看法有关。
认为ICE行动过于严厉的人也压倒性地反对整个驱逐计划。
在本任期内，对驱逐计划的支持率开始时为净正，去年夏天变得更加分歧。
如今，反对者多于支持者。
但长期以来，这一直是总统所在共和党基本盘广泛支持的内容。共和党人压倒性支持驱逐计划，并高度认可特朗普在移民问题上的处理。
对特朗普总统的看法
总统的总体支持率近几个月相当稳定，徘徊在40%左右。共和党人的支持尤为强劲——例如，今天近九成共和党人支持他，尤其是”让美国再次伟大”运动支持者。
当前40%的支持率与去年秋天持平；本任期开始时支持率为多数，2025年春夏有所下降。同期，独立人士、年轻人和拉丁裔等群体的支持率也下降了。
国家分裂的原因
在一个感觉分裂的国家，这可能是一个原因。人们认为各州受总统政策的影响存在差异。三分之二的人认为特朗普的政策有利于共和党州而非民主党州（包括超过三分之一的共和党人也这么认为）。
更广泛地说，大多数美国人认为特朗普的政策减少了世界的和平与稳定，而非增加。
谁会观看？
和近年来的国情咨文一样，总统的党派支持者更有可能观看。因此，今晚的演讲观众中共和党人多于民主党人，可能形成相对友好的受众群体，不过具体影响将在未来几天随着人们观看片段或阅读报道而显现。
总体而言，共和党人对未来三年持乐观态度——远高于独立人士或民主党人。
至于演讲能否改变什么，大多数人表示对特朗普的看法已固定，但约四分之一的人认为他可能会说些改变他们对他看法的话。
这项由CBS新闻/YouGov进行的调查，对2381名美国成年人进行了全国代表性抽样，调查时间为2026年2月20日至23日。样本根据美国人口普查局的美国社区调查和当前人口调查，以及2024年总统选举结果，按性别、年龄、种族和教育水平进行了加权处理。误差范围为±2.3个百分点。
Poll on Trump State of the Union finds most want to hear about economy and say admin. hasn’t explained Iran policy
2026-02-24T17:25:00-0500 / CBS News
Asked how they’d describe the state of the country if they could give the address tonight, most Americans would use the word “divided.”
It’s a belief about division that has spanned administrations — before Joe Biden’s last State of the Union, most described the nation as “divided” too. And even more do now.
“Divided” far outpaces other descriptors like “strong” or “prospering,” though each of those is a bit higher now than in 2024 under Biden, too.
But Democrats and Republicans alike want to hear the president talk about the economy and the cost of living.
Most still call the economy bad — as they have for years, going back to the pandemic — but views are relatively improved of late, and off the lows for this term from last fall.
The way in which the president talks about that may be critical now: going into the State of the Union address, most Americans think Mr. Trump makes the situation with prices and inflation sound better than it really is.
There’s also a big majority that say he hasn’t explained potential military action against Iran.
Something fewer want to hear about: tariffs. Most still oppose them — or, coming off the recent Supreme Court decision — the idea that the president alone should be setting them. That, Americans say, is a job that at least involves Congress, if not one that is exclusive to Congress.
More broadly, asked how they’d describe the country compared to a year ago, Republicans already think it is doing better today. And they’re widely optimistic about the coming years ahead, too. A majority of Americans overall, though, feel the nation is doing worse.
And as with all presidents in recent years, his own partisans say they’re far more likely to watch the speech tonight.
Comparable numbers say “declining” and “weak” describe the state of the country, but the partisan views are flipped. When Joe Biden was in office, preparing to give his final State of the Union address, Republicans tended to use more negative terms than Democrats. Today, ahead of Mr. Trump’s address, Democrats use more negative terms.
What do Americans want to hear about?
Most want to hear about economic-focused topics like the cost of living and the U.S. economy, whether they plan to watch the speech or not.
Those issues have been on the minds of Americans for a long while.
Many also say it’s important to hear about Immigration and Customs Enforcement, deportation operations and immigration policy generally, along with health care and prescription drugs.
Far fewer want to hear very political things, like criticism of Democrats or support for Republicans — or about the Supreme Court, either.
It’s not just raising the subject, though; it’s the way the president describes things. Most continue to think Trump describes prices and inflation as better than they really are.
A sizable number in his own party — about four in 10 — also hold this view. This has been the case in the public mind for a while.
Tariffs, prices and the economy
Most Americans disapprove of new tariffs on imported goods, just as they did before the decision by the U.S. Supreme Court last week. (They’ve told us in other recent polls they feel tariffs increase prices.)
Who should decide on tariffs? Americans across party lines see at least some role for Congress in setting tariff policy. Very few say Trump alone should do it.
Specifically, Republicans see it as a matter for cooperation between Mr. Trump and Congress: few think Mr. Trump alone should set policy, even those who favor tariffs more generally.
Most continue to rate the nation’s economy negatively as they have for years, but the percentage who say it is good has been rising, off last fall’s lows for the term.
Americans have often said in previous polling this past year that prices are a main way that they evaluate the economy, and over the course of his second term, have felt the administration hasn’t been focusing enough on it. Today, Mr. Trump continues to get net negative ratings on his handling of the economy and inflation, as he has for several months.
Iran
Many also feel it’s important to hear about Iran tonight.
One reason: most don’t think the Trump administration has clearly explained the U.S. position on possible action against Iran.
Overall, the nation is divided — with slightly more opposed than in favor — of the idea of military action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Those who don’t think he’s clearly explained things are mostly opposed to military action.
There are partisan differences, too: Most Democrats and independents would disapprove of military action, but a big majority of Republicans would approve.
(For context, most Republicans — especially MAGA — did approve of the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities last summer, and of the more recent military action in Venezuela.)
Deportation and I.C.E.
A majority continues to view ICE’s operations when it stops or detains people as “too tough.” This has been the case for a while.
That perception is linked to overall views of the deportation program.
Those who feel ICE operations have been too tough also overwhelmingly disapprove of the deportation program overall.
Over the course of this term, approval of the deportation program started out net positive, then became more divided last summer.
Today, more disapprove than approve of it.
But it has long stood out as something widely backed by the president’s GOP base. Republicans overwhelmingly back the deportation program, and give Mr. Trump high approval for his handling of immigration overall.
Views of President Trump
The president’s overall job approval rating has been fairly steady in recent months, hovering around the low 40s. It’s also been characterized by very strong backing from Republicans — for example, almost nine in ten today – and especially from MAGA.
Today’s 40% is also where it was last fall; it began this term higher, with majority approval, then dipped in the spring and summer of ’25. Over that same time, approval has declined among independents, younger people, and Latinos, among others.
In a nation that feels it is divided, this may be one reason. There are perceived differences in how the states are impacted by the president’s policies. Two-thirds feel Trump’s policies favor Republican states over Democratic ones (including over a third of Republicans who say so).
More broadly, most Americans think Mr. Trump’s policies have decreased peace and stability in the world rather than increased it.
Who plans to watch?
As is typical for a State of the Union address in recent times, a president’s partisans are more likely to watch. So the address will likely have a relatively friendly audience with Republicans outnumbering Democrats among viewers, though the impact will ultimately play out over the coming days as people see clips or read about it.
Republicans overall are already optimistic about the next three years — far more so than independents or Democrats.
As for whether it can change anything, most say their minds are made up about President Trump, but roughly a quarter think he might say something that could change their minds about him.
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This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,381 U.S. adults interviewed between February 20-23, 2026. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.3 points.
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