本月早些时候，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在社交媒体上大肆吹嘘：“我从未获得过如此之高的民调支持率。”
“显然，人们喜欢一个强大有力的国家，拥有有史以来最好的经济！”总统在其Truth Social社交平台的帖子中补充道。
然而，在其年度国情咨文演讲当天，特朗普的民调支持率在绝大多数全国性调查中仍处于负区间。
在本月底进行的最新福克斯新闻全国民调中，总统的支持率为44%，而对其白宫工作的反对率高达56%。
在2月12日至17日进行并于周日公布的美国广播新闻/《华盛顿邮报》/益普索联合民调中，特朗普获得了所有成年人39%的支持率和登记选民41%的支持率。
过去四周进行的最新调查平均显示，特朗普的支持率在40%左右低位徘徊，反对率则在55%左右。
特朗普在第二任期开始时的支持率处于正区间，但去年3月其支持率跌至水下，随后几个月缓慢下滑，深陷负区间。
最新民调显示出巨大的党派分歧：共和党人对总统持续强烈支持，独立人士态度冷淡，民主党人则几乎完全反对。
资深共和党民调专家达伦·肖在接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时指出：“共和党人的支持率保持稳定，但反对声浪愈发僵化。”他特别提到民主党人的态度。
对通胀的深切担忧曾在2024年推动特朗普和共和党人在选举中大胜，他们重新夺回了白宫和参议院，并保住了众议院多数席位。
唐纳德·特朗普总统在佐治亚州罗马市参观库萨钢铁公司工厂后结束演讲时做手势，2025年2月19日。(索尔·勒布/法新社通过盖蒂图片社)
“我们曾经历创纪录的通胀，现在已经没有了，”特朗普上周在佐治亚州罗马市的竞选集会上表示，“我将在周二发表国情咨文演讲，希望大家能够收看，我们会讨论相关内容。”
但总统在经济方面的支持率平均略低于其整体支持率。
民主党全国委员会主席肯·马丁吹嘘“胜绩连连”，对特朗普及共和党巨额资金优势不屑一顾
民主党人称，自特朗普重返白宫以来，他们在11月2025年选举中的决定性胜利，以及在特别选举和其他投票对决中的出色表现，都得益于他们在持续通胀背景下将焦点集中在“可负担性”问题上。
包括最新福克斯新闻民调在内的一系列调查表明，美国人对经济持悲观态度，认为在特朗普第二任期内经济状况总体并未改善。
“他无法摆脱通胀过高、经济未朝正确方向发展的负面印象，”肖补充道，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同主持福克斯新闻民调。
然而，民主党在民调中也没什么值得炫耀的。
该党的品牌支持度在去年多项民调中跌至历史低点，这一趋势在新的一年里持续发酵。
总统在国会面前的黄金时段演讲正值距离中期选举仅剩8个多月，届时共和党人将捍卫其在众议院的微弱多数优势和参议院的狭窄控制权。
上周，总统的政治团队与特朗普政府内阁成员及其高级助手举行了闭门战略会议，讨论如何在今年的中期选举中将总统的施政纲领最好地推销给选民。
特朗普为稳定通胀数据欢呼，可负担性之争塑造2026年中期选举战场
知情人士透露，在首席民调专家兼战略家托尼·法布里齐奥的幻灯片演示中，传达的核心信息是：经济将成为选民最关注的问题，白宫需要重点宣传其在缓解可负担性方面的努力。
“特朗普团队将调动一切必要资源赢得中期选举，保护我们的多数席位，并确保特朗普总统继续为美国工薪家庭带来实实在在的成果，”总统政治圈的一位消息人士向福克斯新闻数字频道表示。
唐纳德·特朗普总统在爱荷华州克莱夫市地平线活动中心集会上登台演讲，2026年1月27日。(温·麦克纳梅/盖蒂图片社)
无论特朗普的整体支持率如何，他在共和党人中仍然非常受欢迎且极具影响力。在这场可能是“基本盘”选举的中期选举中，共和党将特朗普视为激励低投票率的“MAGA”选民（即特朗普支持者）的最佳工具，这些选民在没有特朗普选票时往往不会参与投票，而在中期选举中则会被动员前往投票站。
共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯上月告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，特朗普是共和党的“秘密武器”，将帮助共和党人在中期选举中“挑战历史规律”。
“我们必须确保选民参与投票，确保大家士气高涨。没有人比特朗普总统更能激发我们的基础选民，”格鲁特斯表示。
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President Donald Trump, taking to social media earlier this month, touted, “The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received.”
“Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!” the president added in a post on his Truth Social platform.
But on the day of his annual State of the Union Address, Trump’s poll numbers remain in negative territory in the vast majority of national surveys.
The president’s approval rating stands at 44% in the latest Fox News national poll, which was conducted late last month, with 56% disapproving of the job he’s doing in the White House.
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And he stood at 39% approval among all adults and 41% among registered voters in an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey conducted Feb 12-17 and released on Sunday.
An average of the most recent surveys conducted over the past four weeks puts Trump’s approval ratings in the low 40s, with disapproval in the mid-50s.
Trump started his second term in positive territory, but his approval ratings sank below water last March and have slowly edged down deeper into negative territory in the ensuing months.
The latest surveys point to a massive partisan divide, with continued strong support for the president among Republicans, a thumbs down among independents and near total disapproval among Democrats.
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“Support among Republicans has remained in place, but the opposition has become even more calcified,” veteran Republican pollster Daron Shaw told Fox News Digital, as he pointed to Democrats.
Deep concerns over inflation boosted Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories at the ballot box in 2024, as they won back the White House and Senate and kept their House majority.
President Donald Trump gestures at the end of his speech after touring the Coosa Steel Corporation factory in Rome, Georgia, Feb. 19, 2025.(Saul Loeb / AFP via Getty Images)
“We had record inflation. We don’t have it anymore,” Trump said at a campaign event last week in Rome, Georgia. “I’m going to make a State of the Union address on Tuesday. I hope you’re going to watch and we’re going to be talking about it.”
But the president’s approval ratings on the economyare, on average, slightly lower than his overall approval ratings.
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And Democrats say their decisive victories in November’s 2025 elections, and their overperformances in special elections and other ballot box showdowns in the year since Trump returned to office, were fueled by their laser focus on affordability amid persistent inflation.
A slew of surveys, including the latest Fox News polling, indicate Americans are pessimistic about the economy and say things have not generally improved during the second Trump administration.
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“He can’t unstick the notion that inflation is too high and that the economy is not moving in the right direction,” added Shaw, who helps run the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
But Democrats don’t have much to brag about when it comes to the polls.
The party’s brand dropped to historic lows last year in a slew of polls, with the trend continuing into the new year.
The president’s primetime address in front of Congress comes with just over eight months to go until the midterm elections, when Republicans will be defending their razor-thin majority in the House and their narrow control of the Senate.
Last week, the president’s political team huddled in a closed-door strategy session with Trump administration Cabinet members and their top aides on how best to sell the president’s agenda to voters in this year’s midterm elections.
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According to sources familiar with the meeting, the message during a slide presentation by chief pollster and strategist Tony Fabrizio was that the economy will be the top issue on the minds of voters, and that the White House needs to spotlight its efforts on easing affordability.
“Team Trump will deploy every resource necessary to win the midterms, protect our majorities, and ensure President Trump keeps delivering results for America’s working families,” a source in the president’s political orbit told Fox News Digital.
President Donald Trump takes the stage to speak during a rally at the Horizon Events Center in Clive, Iowa, on Jan. 27.(Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Regardless of Trump’s overall approval ratings, he remains very popular and influential with Republicans. And in what may be a base election, the GOP sees the president as their best tool to motivate low-propensity MAGA voters, who don’t always vote when Trump’s not on the ballot, to show up at the polls during the midterms.
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Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters told Fox News Digital last month that Trump was the GOP’s “secret weapon” that will help Republicans “defy history” in the midterms.
“We got to make sure we turn our voters out, and we got to make sure that we have people energized. And there’s nobody that can energize our base more than President Trump,” Gruters said.
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Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast.
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