作者：凯文·利普塔克 | 发布时间：2026年2月24日，美国东部时间上午6:00 | 更新于31分钟前
自唐纳德·特朗普总统去年向国会发表讲话以来，情况发生了很大变化。但至少在一个方面，他周二晚间的国情咨文演讲似乎可能与他上一次走进众议院会议厅时相似。
“这将是一场漫长的演讲，”在去年3月发表了历史上最长的联席会议讲话后，他说道，“我们有太多内容要讨论。”
经历了一年的政治动荡和支持率下滑，特朗普在周二晚上9点（美国东部时间）登上讲台时，无疑有很多话题可以讨论。国情咨文传统上是一份成就清单和政策建议清单，通常是总统一年中电视观众最多的一次演讲。
对于特朗普来说，他每周会在不同场合多次出现在电视上，他面临的挑战是要突破他通常在活动中使用的自夸、抱怨和模糊承诺的框架。过去，他在演讲中至少会带来一些惊喜，要么是在讲话中包含意外内容，要么是在旁听席上安排特殊嘉宾。
以下是特朗普演讲中值得关注的四个方面：
中期选举的政治信号
特朗普周二将进入众议院会议厅，试图打破历史预期：正如他经常说的那样，现任总统所在的政党在中期选举中往往会失利。
共和党人希望他的演讲能成为竞选季的宣传开端，而竞选季很可能取决于特朗普在美国选民中的支持率。
上周，在特朗普核心官员、民调专家和战略家的闭门政治策略会议上，有一个（或许并不令人意外的）观点是：经济问题将决定11月的选举——因此将重点放在经济上势在必行。在演讲前进行的一项CNN民调显示，57%的美国人认为经济和生活成本问题是周二演讲中最重要的议题。
然而，特朗普的计划往往不同。即使是表面上聚焦经济的演讲，最终也会偏离方向，包括他的移民打击行动和对他不喜欢的人的老套抱怨。
当他确实讨论经济时，往往是自夸其相对强劲——一些共和党顾问担心这种做法可能会淡化美国人对经济的担忧。
周二的演讲将精心策划，提及节省成本的举措，包括降低处方药价格和减税。但许多美国人仍然表示经济对他们不起作用——这对特朗普来说是一个考验，需要他承认仍有工作要做。
关税政策受挫
在特朗普国情咨文演讲前四天，最高法院对他议程的支柱之一——他在贸易和更广泛的外交政策中用作全球杠杆的单边关税——给予了打击。
特朗普坚称他有备选方案。他已经宣布将使用另一种（但未经测试的）授权实施15%的全球关税。尽管如此，这一裁决仍是一个打击，甚至在几天后仍引发了特朗普的强烈愤怒，几乎肯定会迫使他对原计划的演讲内容做出一些调整。
最高法院裁决给特朗普带来的一个主要问题是，他声称将由关税支付的一系列政策项目。这包括去年宣布的120亿美元农民救助计划，以及从未公布发放时间的2000美元美国民众退税支票。
特朗普将如何应对其过去承诺中明显的资金缺口，仍是一个未知数。
传统上，至少有几名最高法院大法官会出席国情咨文，通常坐在前排。周五的裁决后，特朗普猛烈抨击了对他不利的裁决者，特别是他任命的两名保守派大法官尼尔·戈萨奇和艾米·科尼·巴雷特。
如果他们选择出席，可能会引发总统的又一次抨击。
伊朗问题的疑问
伊朗周围大规模的军事集结，以及特朗普对该国的战争威胁，将为周二的演讲营造紧张的背景。虽然总统暗示要进行政权更迭，并坚持伊朗不能拥有核武器，但他尚未向美国民众说明什么理由可以证明一场长期冲突是正当的。
他似乎不太可能在国情咨文中提出这样的论点。他的顾问们计划了一场以国内议题为主的演讲。在CNN的民调中，只有2%的受访者表示希望总统在演讲中谈论外交政策——这是所有议题中最低的。
尽管如此，战争的迹象引发了人们对总统将依靠哪些权力对伊朗领导人或设施发动新攻击的质疑。他尚未正式试图获得国会的支持，而国会拥有宣战的宪法权力。
特朗普更有可能回顾去年摧毁伊朗核设施的行动，这是他在回顾其重返办公室第一年的成就时经常自夸的内容。
然而，这可能会引发关于伊朗后续行动的疑问。虽然特朗普声称核设施“已被彻底摧毁”，但他现在暗示可能需要进一步打击以防止德黑兰获得核武器。
民主党回应
去年的国情咨文回应混乱且不连贯——其中包括挥舞拐杖的众议员阿尔·格林被逐出会议厅——之后，民主党人希望今年在反对特朗普的信息上表现得更加团结。
官方的党派回应将由弗吉尼亚州州长阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格发表，她将在威廉斯堡殖民地发表演讲，似乎可能会在国家即将迎来250周年诞辰之际，探讨保护美国民主的问题。
斯潘伯格去年以15个百分点的优势入主州长官邸，她的表态被许多民主党人视为赢得选举季的前奏。她说她将解决“不断上涨的成本、社区的混乱，以及对每一天可能带来什么的真正恐惧”。
但这一任务是政治中最棘手的任务之一。两党中许多被选中发表官方回应的人，在事后要么被遗忘，要么被嘲笑。
国会中的一些民主党人计划完全跳过特朗普的演讲，选择参加各种反特朗普集会。
4 things to watch in Trump’s State of the Union
By Kevin Liptak | Published Feb 24, 2026, 6:00 AM ET | Updated 31 min ago
A lot has changed since President Donald Trump addressed Congress a year ago. But in one area, at least, his State of the Union address Tuesday evening seems likely to resemble his last visit to the House chamber.
“It’s going to be a long speech,” he said, after delivering the longest joint session address in history last March. “We have so much to talk about.”
After a year of political upheaval and declining popularity, Trump certainly has plenty to discuss when he climbs the rostrum Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET. Traditionally a laundry list of both accomplishments and policy prescriptions, the State of the Union is typically a president’s largest television audience of the year.
For Trump, who appears in various settings on television multiple times a week, the challenge will be to break through beyond the boasts, grievances and vague promises that comprise his usual events. In the past, he has come to the address with at least a few surprises, either contained in his remarks or in the form of guests sitting up in the galleries.
Here are four things to watch for in Trump’s speech:
A midterm message
Trump will enter the House Chamber on Tuesday looking to defy historic expectations: as he frequently says, incumbent presidents’ parties often suffer in midterm elections.
And Republicans are hoping his speech acts as a messaging kickoff for a campaign season that could very well hinge on Trump’s own standing among American voters.
During a closed-door political strategy session last week among top Trump officials, pollsters and strategists made the (perhaps unsurprising) point that economic issues will dictate November’s election — and that focusing there is imperative. In a CNN poll taken before the speech, 57% of Americans named the economy and cost of living issues as the most important issue for Tuesday’s speech.
Trump, however, often has different plans. Even speeches ostensibly focused on the economy end up meandering in other directions, including his immigration crackdown and old gripes about people he dislikes.
When he does discuss the economy, it is often to boast about its relative strength — an approach some GOP advisers worry risks downplaying Americans’ economic worries.
Tuesday’s speech will be carefully scripted with references to cost-saving initiatives, including lowering prescription drug prices and cutting taxes. But many Americans still say the economy isn’t working for them — providing a test for Trump in acknowledging there’s still work to do.
Tariff setback
Four days before Trump’s State of the Union, the Supreme Court dealt a blow to one of the pillars of his agenda: the unilateral tariffs he’s used as leverage around the world, on both trade and his broader foreign policy.
Trump insists he has backup options. He’s already announced he would apply a 15% global tariff using a different — but untested — authority. Still, the decision was a blow, evoking significant outrage from Trump even days later, and almost certainly forced some changes to the remarks he was planning to deliver.
One major problem for Trump arising from the court’s ruling was the litany of policy items he’s claimed would be paid for by the tariffs. That includes a $12 billion bailout for farmers announced last year and $2,000 rebate checks for Americans, the timing of which was never announced.
How Trump addresses the apparent shortfalls of his past promises remains an open question.
Traditionally, at least a handful of Supreme Court justices attend the State of the Union, often seated near the front. After Friday’s decision, Trump railed against those who ruled against him, in particular the two conservatives he appointed, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.
If they opt to attend, it could provoke another tirade from the president.
Questions on Iran
The massive military buildup around Iran, and Trump’s threats of war against the country, will make for a tense backdrop to Tuesday’s speech. While the president has hinted at pursuing regime change, and insisted Iran not obtain a nuclear weapon, he has yet to lay out to the American people what might justify a prolonged conflict.
It seems unlikely he would use the State of the Union to make such an argument. His advisers have planned a mostly domestic speech. And in CNN’s poll, only 2% of respondents said they wanted to hear from the president on foreign policy in his address — the lowest of any issue.
Still, the rumblings of war have led to questions about what authorities the president would rely upon to stage a new attack on Iranian leaders or facilities. He has not made any formal attempt to gain buy-in from Congress, which holds the constitutional authority to declare war.
Trump is perhaps more likely to recount last year’s mission to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities, something he frequently boasts about when he ticks through the accomplishments of his first year back in office.
Yet that may raise questions about pending action in Iran. While Trump claims the nuclear facilities were “totally obliterated,” he is now suggesting further strikes might be necessary to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Democrats respond
After a chaotic and disjointed response to last year’s address — which included the cane-waving Rep. Al Green being ejected from the chamber — Democrats are hoping this year to appear more united in their opposition to Trump’s message.
The official party response will come from Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, whose speech from Colonial Williamsburg seems likely to address the issue of protecting American Democracy as the country approaches its 250th birthday.
Spanberger, who swept into the governor’s mansion last year after a 15-point win, offered what many Democrats hope is a preview of a winning election season. She said she would address “rising costs, chaos in their communities, and a real fear of what each day might bring.”
But the assignment is among the most fraught in politics. Many in both parties who have been selected for the official response find themselves at best forgotten, and at worst ridiculed, in the aftermath.
Some Democrats in Congress are planning to skip Trump’s speech altogether, choosing to attend various counter-rallies instead.
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