2026年2月23日 / 美国东部时间下午3:51 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
最高法院周五裁定推翻特朗普总统的”解放日”关税，这并未消除美国企业对贸易政策走向的担忧。
战略与国际研究中心高级顾问、前美国国家对外贸易委员会主席威廉· reinsch表示：”这一具有里程碑意义的裁决后，企业和美国贸易伙伴面临’巨大不确定性’。’还有很多问题有待解决——企业不知道自己会被征收多少关税。’”
特朗普本人也在制造一些混乱。裁决后，他立即宣布对美国进口商品征收10%的临时全球税，周六又将税率提高到15%，同时在社交媒体上抨击最高法院的裁决”荒谬”且”极其反美”。
对特朗普关税的沉重打击
最高法院以6-3的投票结果裁定，《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)并未授权总统实施广泛的关税，大幅削减了特朗普政府在贸易政策中使用紧急权力的空间。当天晚些时候，特朗普援引1974年《贸易法》第122条实施新关税。
“任何试图’玩弄’最高法院荒谬裁决的国家，尤其是那些多年甚至数十年’欺骗’美国的国家，都将面临比最近同意的更高关税，甚至更糟的情况。买家当心！！！”特朗普周一在Truth Social上表示。
白宫未立即回应置评请求。
法院的裁决以及特朗普的回应，给美国企业和外国贸易伙伴带来新的疑问。专家指出，部分贸易伙伴已就高于新15%税率的关税达成协议。由于第122条关税将在150天内到期（除非国会延长），美国企业正思考关税的走向和最终税率。
“纯粹的关税混乱”
美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔周日在《面对全国》节目中表示，特朗普政府将坚持其贸易协议，并期望其伙伴也这样做。
但有迹象表明，一些国家可能重新考虑这些贸易协议，特别是那些达成高于特朗普周六设定的15%税率的协议的国家。
欧盟一位资深议员周日表示，他将提议暂停欧盟与美国新贸易协定的批准进程，理由是存在新的不确定性。印度本月早些时候与美国达成临时协议，同意18%的关税税率，但已推迟旨在完成协议的访美行程，据CNBC报道。
“美国政府的关税政策纯粹是混乱的，”欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席贝尔恩德·兰格在社交媒体上写道。”现在无人能理解——欧盟和其他美国贸易伙伴面临的只有疑问和日益增长的不确定性。”
格里尔表示，他本周末与欧盟 counterpart 进行了交谈，未被告知协议终止。
“协议并非基于紧急关税诉讼的结果，”格里尔在《面对全国》节目中说。”我还没有听到有人说协议终止。他们想看看事情如何发展。”
现在会发生什么？
特朗普已转向1974年《贸易法》第122条，以取代最高法院推翻的关税。该法律条款允许总统在150天内征收高达15%的关税，以应对”重大且严重”的国际收支问题。
150天后，关税需要国会延长。卡托研究所贸易专家科林·格拉博告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，这一提议在国会可能面临艰难的攀升，一些共和党议员（如肯塔基州参议员兰德·保罗）已表示反对关税。
“很多人认为15%的关税将在未来150天内维持——但之后会怎样？仍存在不确定性，”格拉博说。
格拉博和Reinsch均表示，由于特朗普仍将关税作为经济和外交政策工具，其政府预计将继续寻求加强进口关税的途径。
当第122条关税到期时，特朗普可能转向其他贸易法律，如1974年《贸易法》第301条。该条款允许特朗普在美贸易代表认定另一国存在不公平贸易行为时实施国家针对性关税。
但格拉博表示，这也会引发关于时机和新条款下关税水平的疑问。
“不应认为，因为IEEPA裁决，关税问题已经解决，”他说。”唯一的问题是：’确切税率是多少？使用什么工具？何时生效？’”
适度的经济影响
耶鲁预算实验室的数据显示，当前美国有效关税税率（不含IEEPA关税，含新的第122条关税）为13.7%。该无党派智库称，这低于最高法院周五裁决前16%的税率。
高盛在研究报告中表示，由于变化相对较小，新关税对经济的影响可能有限，不会调整通胀或增长预测。
然而，专家指出，特朗普政府继续关税政策的决心，引发了关于是否实现预期目标的更广泛疑问。总统声称，关税将振兴美国制造业，并为联邦国库带来数十亿美元新收入。
政府数据显示，2025年制造业就业岗位减少10.8万个。
“制造业并未如预期回流美国，”CSIS的Reinsch指出。”关税没有产生预期效果。”
“前所未有的”局面
Reinsch补充，进口制造组件用于美国工厂的制造商，因特朗普政府关税面临更高成本。
当然，美国制造业面临的长期问题远超关税，包括行业转向自动化、激烈的全球竞争，以及贸易伙伴加大对关键产业的补贴以抵消更高关税成本。
财政部2025年征收2870亿美元关税，其中约1300亿美元来自IEEPA关税。最高法院裁决可能促使部分企业寻求联邦政府退税，这可能影响这笔收入。
专家表示，唯一确定的是，特朗普政府不太可能放弃进一步关税的追求。
“我们正处于前所未有的境地，”格拉博说。”唯一确定的是，政府不会因关税政策而退缩。”
Trump tariffs still pose “huge uncertainty” after Supreme Court ruling, experts say
February 23, 2026 / 3:51 PM EST / CBS News
The Supreme Court’s Friday ruling striking down President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs will not free U.S. companies from their concerns about the direction of trade policy.
“There is huge uncertainty” facing businesses and U.S. trading partners following the landmark decision, said William Reinsch, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the former president of the National Foreign Trade Council. “There is a lot of dust that has yet to be settled — companies don’t know what they will be charged.”
Mr. Trump himself is kicking up some of that dust. Immediately after the ruling, he announced a temporary 10% global tax on U.S. imports, before hiking the levy to 15% on Saturday, while also blasting the high court’s decision on social media as “ridiculous” and “extraordinarily anti-American.”
Heavy blow for Trump tariffs
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, does not authorize the president to impose broad-based tariffs, sharply curtailing the Trump administration’s use of emergency powers in trade policy. Later that day, Mr. Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose new duties.
“Any Country that wants to ‘play games’ with the ridiculous supreme court decision, especially those that have ‘Ripped Off’ the U.S.A. for years, and even decades, will be met with a much higher Tariff, and worse, than that which they just recently agreed to. BUYER BEWARE!!!” Mr. Trump said Monday on Truth Social.
The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The court’s decision, as well as Mr. Trump’s response, raises fresh questions for U.S. businesses and foreign trading partners. Some of those partners had negotiated trade deals with tariffs higher than the new 15% rate, experts noted. And because the Section 122 tariffs are set to expire in 150 days unless extended by Congress, American companies are left to ponder the direction of tariffs and where rates might eventually settle.
“Pure tariff chaos”
The Trump administration will stand by its trade deals and expects its partners to do the same, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Sunday on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.”
Yet there are signs that some nations may be reconsidering those trade deals, especially those that reached agreements at rates higher than the current 15% level set by Mr. Trump on Saturday.
A top European Union lawmaker said Sunday he would propose pausing ratification of a new trade agreement between the EU and the U.S., citing fresh uncertainty. India, which earlier this month agreed to a 18% tariff rate in an interim deal with the U.S., has also postponed a trade visit to Washington that was aimed at finalizing the agreement, according to CNBC.
“Pure tariff chaos on the part of the U.S. administration,” Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s international trade committee, wrote on social media. “No one can make sense of it anymore — only open questions and growing uncertainty for the EU and other U.S. trading partners.”
Greer said he spoke with his European counterpart this weekend and has not been told the deal is off.
“The deals were not premised on whether or not the emergency tariff litigation would rise or fall,” Greer said on Face the Nation. “I haven’t heard anyone yet come to me and say the deal’s off. They want to see how this plays out.”
What happens now?
Mr. Trump has turned to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to replace the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. That legal provision allows the president to impose duties of up to 15% for 150 days to deal with “large and serious” balance-of-payment issues.
After 150 days, the tariffs would need to be extended by lawmakers. That proposal could face an uphill climb in Congress, Cato Institute trade expert Colin Grabow told CBS News, noting that some Republican lawmakers, such as Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, have spoken out against tariffs.
“The baseline for a lot of people is that these 15% tariffs are going to be in place in the next 150 days — but beyond that, what does that look like? Also, uncertainty,” Grabow said.
Because Mr. Trump remains committed to tariffs as both an economic and foreign policy tool, his administration is expected to continue pursuing avenues to stiffen import duties, both Grabow and Reinsch told CBS News.
When the Section 122 tariffs expire, Mr. Trump could turn to other trade laws, such as Section 301 of the Trade Act. That provision would allow Mr. Trump to apply country-based tariffs if the U.S. Trade Representative determines that another nation is engaging in unfair trade practices.
But that, too, would raise questions about timing and where the tariffs could be set under new provisions, Grabow said.
“No one should be under the impression, because of the IEEPA ruling, that the tariff question has been solved,” he said. “The only questions are, ‘What are the exact levels, what are the tools and when will they come into force?’”
Modest economic impact
The current effective U.S. tariff rate — excluding the IEEPA duties but including the new Section 122 tariffs — is now 13.7%, according to the Yale Budget Lab. That is below the 16% rate in effect before the Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday, the nonpartisan think tank said.
Because the change is relatively small, the new tariffs are likely to have only a modest impact on the economy, Goldman Sachs said in a research note, adding that they aren’t adjusting their forecasts for inflation or growth to account for the levies.
Yet the Trump administration’s determination to continue its tariff policies raises broader questions about whether they are achieving their intended goals, experts said. The president has argued that tariffs will revive U.S. manufacturing and generate billions in new revenue for federal coffers.
In 2025, the manufacturing sector lost 108,000 jobs, according to government data.
“What’s not happening is the return of manufacturing to the United States,” noted CSIS’s Reinsch. Tariffs “are not producing the desired outcome, let’s put it that way.”
“Unprecedented” terrain
Manufacturers that import components used to fabricate products at U.S. plants have faced higher costs due to the Trump administration’s tariffs, Reinsch added.
To be sure, U.S. manufacturing is grappling with long-term issues beyond tariffs, ranging from an industrywide shift to automation and fierce global competition, including U.S. trading partners who have stepped up subsidies to key industries to offset the higher tariff costs.
The Treasury Department collected $287 billion in tariffs in 2025, with roughly $130 billion stemming from the IEEPA tariffs. The Supreme Court ruling may prompt some businesses to seek refunds from the federal government, putting that revenue in question.
The only thing that seems certain is that the Trump administration is unlikely to back down from pursuing additional tariffs, experts said.
“We’re literally in unprecedented territory,” Grabow said. “The only thing we know for sure is that we have an administration that is undeterred from its use of tariffs.”
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