发布时间：2026年2月23日，美国东部时间下午6:47 / 作者：亚当·坎克伦
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二晚间将迎来其最受瞩目的机会，以说服持怀疑态度的美国人相信他的政策正在发挥作用——并宣称承诺已久的经济黄金时代即将到来。
但这场旨在标志中期选举非官方开始的国情咨文演讲前夕，就连特朗普本人似乎也对改变许多人看法的可能性缺乏信心。
“如果我提出了癌症治疗方法，他们会说他本应在几年前就做到这一点，”他在周一的白宫活动中抱怨道。“无论我做什么，这些人都不会给我任何赞誉。”
这场黄金时段的演讲正值总统面临一段特别棘手的时期，他在国内外都面临着一系列挑战。民调显示，特朗普的支持率仍处于历史低位，美国人因生活成本焦虑以及对其应对措施的不满而对他展开猛烈抨击。根据周一发布的美国有线电视新闻网民调，特朗普的支持率为36%，较去年2月的48%有所下降，其中独立选民支持率仅为26%，创下其支持率最低记录。
政府正难以让公众意识到其关键成就或国会未来雄心的动力。与此同时，自封“和平总统”的特朗普正考虑对另一个外国发动更多打击。此外，政府对杰弗里·爱泼斯坦案件文件的处理混乱、部分政府停摆、明尼苏达州移民打击政策引发的致命枪击事件（导致两名美国公民死亡），以及最高法院对其经济议程核心关税的裁决（这对特朗普来说时机极不恰当），都为他带来了诸多不利因素。
这些逆风为这场演讲形成了不祥的背景。特朗普的盟友和顾问希望他能借此机会凝聚美国人对国家乐观愿景的支持，却又担心他会陷入总统特有的指责和怨恨情绪中。
共和党策略师、特朗普第一任期官员马修·巴特利特表示：“特朗普只有一种基调，那就是愤怒。我不确定这种情况会有所改变，或者他能否找到一种完美契合美国工人诉求的语气。”
吹嘘“庞大美丽的法案”
周二演讲前夕，白宫助手们将重点放在更细致的中期选举策略上，既吹嘘特朗普上任第一年的成就，又预告即将到来的激进议程。知情人士透露，他们认为总统的政治挑战主要是沟通问题，因此国情咨文是改变美国人对其议程和整体经济看法的关键机会之一。
“如果民众没有感受到经济正在好转、生活成本降低，我们就无法获胜，”一位知情人士表示。
特朗普的演讲预计将重点强调经济整体实力，并辩称随着政府政策生效，美国人最终会在银行账户中看到成效。
白宫官员尤其依赖共和党人去年通过的“庞大美丽法案”中的税收条款，他们预测这将使人们今年获得超出预期的退税。
特朗普还可能吹嘘他引以为豪的政策，例如取消小费和加班费的某些税收，以及自他上任以来各公司和国家承诺的投资。
尽管共和党在国会的优势微弱，特朗普仍预计会敦促议员们处理医疗保健和住房等主要负担得起的领域立法。总统已呼吁将政府与十多家制药公司谈判达成的药品价格协议编纂成法，并通过一项更全面的医疗保健法案，将某些奥巴马医改补贴重新定向给个人参保者。
这些举措，包括他推动禁止大型机构投资者进入住房市场的民粹主义政策，在国会山得到的回应较为平淡。但特朗普顾问强调，有必要提供一个实质性的愿景，向美国人表明政府仍在努力缓解他们最关切的问题——这一愿景可以直接与民主党正在制定的议程进行比较。
沟通障碍
尽管特朗普最近几周与助手密切合作改进其言论，但他仍不断流露出对严峻政治局势的挫败感。
上周在佐治亚州的一次活动中，特朗普本应测试其在关键负担能力问题上的信息传递效果，但他却列举了自己认为已使该地区企业和居民受益的成就清单，随后突然偏离主题。
“过去两周你没听到哪个词？负担能力，”他说。“因为我赢了。我在负担能力方面赢了。”
最近几天，特朗普还因最高法院关于其关税权力的裁决公开表示愤怒，抨击该裁决及其支持裁决的六名大法官，其中包括他自己任命的两名法官。
在一系列社交媒体帖子中，他誓言重建一个比以往更严厉的贸易制度，尽管党内有人警告这将推高物价并加剧经济不确定性。
特朗普在周一的帖子中写道：“任何试图‘玩弄’最高法院荒谬裁决的国家，特别是那些多年甚至几十年来一直‘敲诈’美国的国家，都将面临比最近同意的更高的关税，甚至更糟糕的后果。”
与民主党对比
尽管特朗普的支持率持续下降，但其顾问们因民主党无法重塑品牌而受到鼓舞，认为只需有效将中期选举描绘为两种竞争愿景的选择即可。
特朗普可能在周二的演讲中重点对比两党在一系列问题上的立场，包括推动他声称获得广泛公众支持的选民身份证法案，吹嘘在犯罪和南部边境问题上的进展，并将其各种海外干预描绘为重新确立美国全球主导地位的努力。在上个月推翻委内瑞拉总统后，特朗普本周将前往国会，同时伊朗问题的攻击计划也在审议中。
周一，特朗普表示这一漫长议程可能需要一段时间才能通过。
“我们拥有有史以来最强大的经济，我们拥有有史以来最活跃的经济，”他说。“演讲会很长，因为我们有太多内容要讨论。”
然而，对于仍对特朗普急于庆祝的“经济伟大”持怀疑态度的大量选民而言，一个主要担忧是他们能关注多久。
巴特利特表示，尽管国情咨文本身备受关注，但它很少会对国家更广泛的政治动态或总统自身的政治轨迹产生持久影响。
“连任总统在历史上会失去可信度，”他说。“而且他们永远无法挽回。”
Trump faces a skeptical public and myriad challenges ahead of State of the Union address
PUBLISHED Feb 23, 2026, 6:47 PM ET / By Adam Cancryn
President Donald Trump leaves an event at the White House on Monday.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
President Donald Trump on Tuesday night will get his highest-profile opportunity to convince skeptical Americans that his policies are working — and that a promised economic golden age is right around the corner.
But ahead of a State of the Union address meant to mark the unofficial start of the midterm campaign, even Trump seemed unconvinced he had a shot at changing many minds.
“If I came up with a cure for cancer, they would say he should have done it years ago,” he complained during a White House event Monday. “There is not a thing I can do where these people are going to give me credit.”
The primetime address comes amid a particularly troublesome stretch for the president, who faces an array of challenges at home and pressing questions abroad. In polling, Trump is as unpopular as ever, battered by Americans’ anxiety over the cost of living and dissatisfaction with his approach to addressing it. His 36% approval rating is down from 48% last February, according to a CNN poll released Monday that showed his lowest-ever approval rating with independents — just 26%.
The administration is struggling to build public awareness of its key accomplishments or momentum in Congress for its future ambitions. At the same time, Trump, who has proclaimed himself the “peace president,” is mulling yet more strikes on a foreign nation. Then there is the administration’s messy handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, the partial government shutdown, backlash over a Minnesota immigration crackdown that led to the fatal shootings of two US citizens, and — in a poorly timed twist for Trump — the Supreme Court’s ruling invaliding the tariffs at the center of the White House’s economic agenda.
Those headwinds have formed an ominous backdrop for a speech that Trump’s allies and advisers hope he’ll use to rally Americans behind an optimistic vision for the country — yet that they worry will get bogged down in the president’s brand of score settling and grievance.
“Trump has but one note, which is rage,” said Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist and first-term Trump official. “I’m not sure that’s somehow going to change, or that he’ll find some sort of pitch-perfect tone for the American worker.”
Touting the ‘big, beautiful bill’
Ahead of Tuesday’s address, White House aides have focused on a more nuanced midterm pitch that balances touting Trump’s first-year accomplishments with previewing an aggressive agenda still to come. They’ve concluded the president’s political challenges are primarily a messaging problem, people familiar with the internal discussions said, making the State of the Union one of several key opportunities to shift Americans’ mood on his agenda and the economy overall.
“If there’s not a sense we’re making people feel better about the economy, making their lives more affordable, we’re not going to win,” said one of the people.
Trump’s speech is expected to focus heavily on highlighting the economy’s overall strength, while making the case that Americans will eventually see it reflected in their bank accounts as the administration’s policies take effect.
White House officials are relying in particular on tax provisions that Republicans passed as part of last year’s “big, beautiful bill” that they’ve predicted will result in people getting larger-than-anticipated tax refunds this year.
Trump is also likely to boast about policies he’s proud of, such as the elimination of certain taxes on tips and overtime, and the investment commitments made by various corporations and countries since he took office.
And despite the GOP’s slim margins in Congress, Trump is expected to press lawmakers to take up legislation addressing major affordability areas such as health care and housing. The president has already called for codifying drug price agreements his administration negotiated with more than a dozen pharmaceutical companies, and for passing a more sweeping health care bill centered on redirecting certain Obamacare subsidies to individual enrollees.
Those initiatives, like his populist push to bar big institutional investors from the housing market, have received a muted response on Capitol Hill. But Trump advisers have stressed the need to offer a substantial vision that shows Americans the administration is still working to alleviate their biggest concerns — and one that can be compared directly with the agenda Democrats are fleshing out.
Messaging hurdles
But even as Trump has worked closely with aides to refine his rhetoric in recent weeks, he’s continued to show flashes of frustration with his grim political situation.
At an event in Georgia last week meant to test-drive his message on crucial affordability issues, Trump ticked off a list of accomplishments he argued were already benefiting the area’s businesses and residents. Then, he veered sharply off message.
“What word have you not heard over the last two weeks? Affordability,” he said. “Because I’ve won. I’ve won affordability.”
Trump more recently spent the last few days publicly fuming over the Supreme Court’s verdict on his tariff powers, leveling attacks on both the decision and the six justices who supported it, including two he appointed.
In a flurry of social media posts, he has vowed to reconstitute a trade regime that’s potentially harsher than before, despite warnings within his own party it would push up prices and fuel even greater economic uncertainty.
“Any Country that wants to ‘play games’ with the ridiculous supreme court decision, especially those that have ‘Ripped Off’ the U.S.A. for years, and even decades, will be met with a much higher Tariff, and worse, than that which they just recently agreed to,” Trump wrote in a Monday post.
Contrast with Democrats
Despite Trump’s sustained polling declines, his advisers have been buoyed by Democrats’ inability to rebuild their brand, arguing they may need only to effectively portray the midterms as a choice between the two competing visions.
Trump is likely to lean into that contrast between the two parties on Tuesday on a range of issues, talking up his push for a voter ID measure that he’s claimed has broad public support, touting progress on crime and the southern border, and portraying his various foreign entanglements as part of a push to reestablish American dominance around the world. After overseeing the ouster of Venezuela’s president last month, Trump will travel to the Capitol this week amid deliberations over attacking Iran.
On Monday, Trump indicated that lengthy agenda could take a while to get through.
“We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had. We have the most activity we’ve ever had,” he said. “It’s going to be a long speech, because we have so much to talk about.”
Yet for the sizable proportion of voters still unconvinced about the greatness of the economy Trump is eager to celebrate, a chief worry remains how long they’ll stay tuned in.
Despite the spectacle surrounding the State of the Union, it rarely makes a lasting dent in the nation’s broader political dynamics, Bartlett said, or in the president’s own trajectory.
“Second-term presidents historically lose credibility,” he said. “And they never get it back.”
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