2026年2月20日 13:37 UTC / 路透社
作者：露西亚·穆蒂卡尼
[1/2] 2026年1月16日，美国纽约市史泰登岛的一家好市多（Costco）商店内，人们正在购物。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德莫特/资料图片
[1/2] 2026年1月16日，美国纽约市史泰登岛的一家好市多（Costco）商店内，人们正在购物。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德莫特/资料图片 购买授权，新标签页打开
华盛顿，2月20日（路透社）- 受去年政府停摆影响以及消费者支出放缓的拖累，美国第四季度经济增长大幅低于预期。不过，减税政策和人工智能领域的投资预计将在今年支撑经济活动。
美国商务部经济分析局周五发布的第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）初步预估显示，上季度GDP按年率计算增长了1.4%。路透社此前对经济学家的调查显示，市场预期GDP增速为3.0%。然而，这项调查是在周四公布的数据（12月贸易逆差扩大至五个月高位）之前完成的。
第三季度美国经济增速为4.4%。无党派的国会预算办公室（CBO）估计，政府停摆将通过减少联邦工作人员提供的服务、降低联邦政府商品和服务支出以及临时削减补充营养援助计划（SNAP）福利，使第四季度GDP减少1.5个百分点。
国会预算办公室预测，大部分产出损失最终会得到弥补，但仍有70亿至140亿美元的损失无法挽回。
在这份报告发布前，总统唐纳德·特朗普在社交媒体上发文称：”停摆使美国GDP至少减少了两个百分点。这就是他们再次小规模停摆的原因。不要再停摆了！还有，降低利率。”
这份因创纪录的43天政府停摆而延迟发布的报告，凸显了美国经济在就业低迷状态下的扩张，以及所谓的”K型经济”——即高收入家庭生活优渥，而低收入消费者在进口关税引发的高通胀和停滞的工资增长中挣扎。
这些状况造就了经济学家和特朗普的反对者所说的”可负担性危机”。去年美国仅新增18.1万个就业岗位，是2009年大衰退以来除疫情期间外最少的一年，较2024年的145.9万个就业岗位大幅下降。
消费者支出增速从第三季度的3.5%放缓。经济学家表示，支出增长主要由高收入家庭推动，而储蓄率下降是因为通胀侵蚀了购买力。
经济学家预计，由于减税政策，今年消费者可能会获得更大的退税，从而提振支出。他们估计，包括数据中心、半导体、软件以及研发在内的人工智能产业，在2025年前三季度贡献了三分之一的GDP增长，这抵消了关税和移民减少带来的负面影响。这份略显陈旧的报告可能不会对货币政策产生影响。
报道：露西亚·穆蒂卡尼，编辑：野山知津子
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US economic growth slows sharply in the fourth quarter
February 20, 2026 1:37 PM UTC / Reuters
By Lucia Mutikani
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Item 1 of 2 People shop at a Costco store in the Staten Island borough of New York City, U.S., January 16, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
[1/2]People shop at a Costco store in the Staten Island borough of New York City, U.S., January 16, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter amid disruptions from last year’s government shutdown and a moderation in consumer spending, but tax cuts and investment in artificial intelligence were expected to support activity this year.
Gross domestic product increased at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 3.0% pace. The survey was, however, completed before data on Thursday showing the trade deficit widening to a five-month high in December.
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The economy grew at a 4.4% pace in the third quarter. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the government shutdown would subtract 1.5 percentage points from fourth-quarter GDP through fewer services provided by federal workers, lower federal spending on goods and services and a temporary reduction in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits.
The CBO forecast most of the lost output would eventually be recovered, though between $7 billion and $14 billion would not.
Ahead of the release of the report, President Donald Trump posted on social media that the “Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP. That’s why they are doing it, in mini form, again. No Shutdowns! Also, LOWER INTEREST RATES.”
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The report, which was delayed by the record 43-day government shutdown, highlighted a jobless economic expansion as well as a “K-shaped” economy, in which upper-income households are doing well while lower-income consumers are struggling amid high inflation from import tariffs and stalling wage growth.
Those conditions have created what economists and Trump’s opponents call an affordability crisis. Only 181,000 jobs were added last year, the fewest outside the pandemic since the 2009 Great Recession, and down from 1.459 million in 2024.
Growth in consumer spending slowed from the third quarter’s brisk 3.5% pace. Economists say spending has largely been driven by higher-income households and has been at the expense of saving as inflation eroded buying power.
Consumer spending could get a tailwind from what economists anticipate will be larger tax refunds this year because of tax cuts. Economists estimated AI, including data centers, semiconductors, software and research and development, accounted for a third of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, blunting the hit from tariffs and reduced immigration. The stale report will probably have no impact on monetary policy.
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Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, editing by Chizu Nomiyama
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