2026年2月14日 / 美国东部时间上午8:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
爱情能战胜概率吗？今年情人节，预测市场正就名人恋情能否修成正果或分道扬镳下注。通过金钱投注，赌徒们正在为从赞达亚到凯蒂·佩里等高调人物的恋爱关系设定概率。
例如，在在线预测市场Polymarket上，注册用户可以对美国流行歌星凯蒂·佩里和2025年12月宣布恋情的前加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多是否会在2026年底订婚进行金融押注。截至2月初，两人在那时承诺结婚的概率为27%。迄今为止，已有超过22,800美元被投注在这对情侣的命运上。
泰勒·斯威夫特与特拉维斯·凯尔2025年11月6日在纽约市。Aeon/GC Images/Getty Images
Polymarket用户还在流行歌星泰勒·斯威夫特和堪萨斯城酋长队近端锋特拉维斯·凯尔的订婚相关事项上投注数十万美元，包括他们是否会在6月30日前结婚，或者新娘是否会在婚礼前怀孕（根据赌徒的看法，这种情况不太可能）。
在一个名为Kalshi的预测市场上，类似的投注也在进行，该平台根据客户的投注将斯威夫特和凯尔在2027年1月1日前结婚的概率定为70%。
“在情人节的氛围下，谁不想看到两个人找到彼此呢？”华盛顿与李大学法学院研究预测市场的梅琳达·罗斯教授告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
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自由新闻：残酷的爱：我是不是太喜欢单身而无法坠入爱河？
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尽管她个人不在预测市场下注，也没有参与其中，但她确实有一个偏好的结果。
“我宁愿赌一份爱情契约，而不是分手契约，”她说。
人群的智慧
Polymarket在全球运营，但2022年被迫在美国关闭，此后在商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的监管下重新启动国内业务。Kalshi也同样受到美国CFTC的监管，并在全球范围内运营。
预测市场专家表示，美国用户经常访问Polymarket的离岸市场，通过虚拟专用网络（VPN）规避监管，否则Polymarket的全球网站将对他们关闭。
“美国人仍然在Polymarket的非美国平台上投注，但他们必须通过VPN，或者打电话给朋友或表亲之类的人帮忙，”罗斯教授说。
其他爱情事件合约包括：
- 凯莉美妆创始人凯莉·詹娜和奥斯卡提名者蒂莫西·柴勒梅德今年会订婚吗？Kalshi的答案：53%的概率
- 赞达亚和汤姆·赫兰德会在12月31日前结婚吗？Polymarket的答案：49%的概率
- 比尔·贝尔奇克和乔丹·哈德森会在2027年前结婚吗？Kalshi的答案：27%的概率
一个已过期的市场甚至让公众投注前加密货币企业家山姆·班克曼-弗里德的前女友卡罗琳·埃里森是否会在2025年底前找到新男友。
这类网站依赖“人群的智慧”理论，该理论认为，一个庞大且多元化的人群群体的判断能力优于单个个体。用户的投注决定了市场概率，这些概率会实时变化，反映每个结果的可能性。
在去年年底接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻“60分钟”采访时，Polymarket创始人兼首席执行官谢恩·科普兰将该平台描述为“人类目前拥有的最准确的东西，直到有人创造出某种超级水晶球。”
罗斯表示，科普兰的断言至少有几分道理。
“预测市场之所以运作良好，其中一个原因是人们确实拥有知识，并且会将自己的钱投向自己认为正确的地方，”她说。
有效监管的概率较低
预测市场的批评者称，它们会助长内幕交易——即利用非公开重要信息交易公司股票的非法行为，这会让普通投机者处于显著劣势。
“人们利用内幕信息获利，而牺牲了那些没有这些信息的人的利益，”致力于金融改革的无党派倡导组织Better Markets的证券政策主任本·希夫林说。
Kalshi禁止任何人对包含重要非公开信息的合约进行投注。
至于在爱情概率上的博弈，即使那些警告这些网站潜在风险的人也鼓励消费者对爱情保持乐观，只要他们意识到投注的风险。
巴纳德学院经济学教授拉吉夫·塞斯将爱情投注描述为相对“无害”的消遣，“只要人们意识到他们可能在与内部人士或比他们拥有更好信息的人交易。”
罗斯还区分了内幕信息交易和她所说的“优越知识”。
“知道贾斯汀·特鲁多买了戒指的人会比其他赌徒更有优势，”她告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。“他们并没有运用任何技能或为自己创造优越的知识，而是利用重要的非公开信息并从中获利。”
在线预测市场Kalshi的截图显示了对凯蒂·佩里和贾斯汀·特鲁多订婚概率的投注。哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
相比之下，一个忠实的泰勒·斯威夫特粉丝如果阅读了关于这位艺术家的所有相关信息，“可能能够将信息进行综合分析”，从而对她的婚礼日期做出有根据的猜测。
Polymarket创始人科普兰并不认同这种指控，他表示这实际上是平台的一个特点而非缺点，他说：“这种情况不可避免，而且其中有很多好处。”
怀疑者还表示，这类市场增加了赌博的可及性，并助长了赌博行为。
“它们几乎允许对任何事情下注，包括名人恋情，这为消费者打开了另一条赌博的途径，”希夫林说。
美国商品期货交易委员会主席迈克尔·塞利格在最近的评论中谈到了预测市场监管问题，称虽然他希望市场蓬勃发展，但他正指示该机构制定所谓“事件合约”的管理规则。
“长期以来，CFTC现有的监管框架难以适用，并让我们的市场参与者失望。我打算通过为事件合约建立明确标准来解决这个问题，为市场参与者提供确定性，”他在1月29日美国商品期货交易委员会和证券交易委员会联合活动的预先准备好的讲话中表示。
特别是在爱情这种变幻莫测的事情上，预测市场面临另一个挑战：将结果与现实联系起来。这就是为什么它们会明确规则。例如，对柴勒梅德和詹娜状态的猜测不足以作为订婚的证据。必须由官方代表或这对情侣本人公开宣布结婚的意图才能生效。
根据Kalshi的说法，“我们订婚了”或“我答应了”的公告将足以让那些为这对情侣“幸福生活”下注的赌徒兑现收益，但未经证实的传闻则不行。
This Valentine’s Day, people are betting through prediction markets, wagering money on love
February 14, 2026 / 8:00 AM EST / CBS News
Can love beat the odds? Prediction markets are taking bets this Valentine’s Day that celebrity relationships can thrive — or break apart. By wagering money, bettors are setting the odds on the amorous relationships of high-profile figures, from Zendaya to Katy Perry.
For example, on Polymarket, an online prediction market, registered users can take a financial position on whether or not American pop star Katy Perry and former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced their relationship in December 2025, will be engaged by the end of 2026. As of early February, the probability of the pair committing to wed by then was 27%. To date, more than $22,800 has been wagered on the couple’s fate.
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce on Nov. 6, 2025 in New York City. Aeon/GC Images/Getty Images
Polymarket users are also betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on aspects of pop-star Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce’s engagement, including whether or not they’ll be married before June 30, or if the bride will become pregnant before she weds (unlikely, according to bettors).
A similar bet is hosted on a prediction market called Kalshi, where the site puts the probability of Swift and Kelce marrying before Jan. 1, 2027, at 70%, based on customers’ bets.
“In the spirit of Valentine’s Day, who doesn’t want to see two people find each other?” Melinda Roth, a professor at the Washington and Lee University School of Law, who researches prediction markets, told CBS News.
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The Free Press: Tough Love: Do I Like Being Single Too Much to Fall in Love?
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While she doesn’t personally wager money on prediction markets and has no skin in the game, she does have a preferred outcome.
“I’d rather bet on a love contract than a breakup contract,” she said.
Wisdom of the crowd
Polymarket, which operates globally and was forced in 2022 to shut down in the U.S., has since relaunched domestically under regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC. Kalshi is similarly regulated by the CFTC in the U.S. and also operates globally.
Experts in prediction markets say that U.S.-based users often access offshore markets on Polymarket, bypassing regulations using virtual private networks, without which Polymarket’s global sites would be off limits.
“Americans still bet on Polymarket’s non-USA platforms, but they have to go through a VPN, or call a friend or a cousin or whatever,” Prof. Roth said.
Other amorous event contracts include:
- Will Kylie Cosmetics founder Kylie Jenner and Oscar nominee Timothée Chalamet become engaged this year? Kalshi’s answer: 53% chance
- Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Polymarket’s answer: 49% chance
- Will Bill Belichick and Jordon Hudson be married before 2027? Kalshi’s answer: 27% chance
An expired market even let the public bet on whether or not Caroline Ellison, the former girlfriend of disgraced crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried, would have a new boyfriend by the end of 2025.
Such sites rely on the “wisdom of the crowd” theory, which holds that a large, diverse group of people has superior judgment to that of a single individual. Users’ bets determine a market’s odds, which shift in real time and indicate the likelihood of each outcome.
In an interview with CBS News’ “60 Minutes” late last year, Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan characterized the platform as “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now, until someone else creates some sort of a super crystal ball.”
Roth said there is at least some truth to Coplan’s assertion.
“One way prediction markets work really well is because people do have knowledge, and they put their money where their mouth is,” she said.
Odds of effective regulation are low
Critics of prediction markets say they allow insider trading, the illegal practice of trading a company’s stock based on nonpublic material, to fester, putting regular speculators at a significant disadvantage.
“People are using inside information to profit at the expense of people on the other side who don’t have that information,” said Ben Schiffrin, director of securities policy for Better Markets, a nonpartisan advocacy group focused on financial reform.
Kalshi prohibits anyone with material non-public information on a contract from betting on it.
As far as playing the odds on romance goes, even those who warn about the sites’ potential pitfalls encourage consumers to be optimistic about love, as long as they are aware of the betting stakes.
Rajiv Seth, a professor of economics at Barnard College, characterized betting on love as a relatively “harmless” pastime, “as long as people are aware that they may be trading against insiders, or people with better info than them.”
Roth also distinguished between trading on inside information and what she characterized as “superior knowledge.”
“Someone who knows that Justin Trudeau bought a ring would have a leg up on other bettors,” she told CBS News. “They are not using any skill or creating superior knowledge for themselves. They are taking material, nonpublic information and capitalizing on it.”
A screenshot from online prediction market Kalshi shows a bet placed on the odds of Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau getting engaged. CBS News
By contrast, a loyal Swift fan who has read everything under the sun written about and by the artist, “might be able to put two and two together,” to make an informed guess about her wedding date, she said.
Coplan, Polymarket’s founder, doesn’t take issue with the allegation and says it’s actually a feature of the platform, rather than a liability, saying, “it’s sort of an inevitability that this will happen, and there’s a lot of benefits from it.”
Skeptics also say such markets increase access to, and encourage, gambling.
“They allow betting on pretty much anything, including celebrity relationships, and that opens up a whole other avenue to get consumers into gambling,” Schiffrin said.
Michael Selig, chairman of the CFTC, addressed prediction market regulation in recent comments, saying that while he wants the markets to flourish, he is directing the agency to draft rules governing so-called event contracts.
“For too long, the CFTC’s existing framework has proven difficult to apply and has failed our market participants. That is something I intend to fix by establishing clear standards for event contracts that provide certainty to market participants,” he said in prepared remarks at a joint CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission event on Jan. 29.
Particularly when it comes to a matter as fickle as love, prediction markets face another challenge: connecting outcomes back to reality. That’s why they make the rules clear. For example, speculation about Chalamet and Jenner’s status would not suffice as evidence of an engagement. An official representative, or the couple, would have to make a public announcement stating their intention to marry.
“We’re engaged,” or “I said yes,” announcements would suffice for bettors who wagered money on the couple living happily ever after to cash in, according to Kalshi. But unconfirmed rumors would not.
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