分析：艾伦·布雷克
发布时间：2026年2月13日，美国东部时间上午10:27
参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默在美国国会大厦的新闻发布会上指着一张民主党要求改革移民和海关执法局（ICE）的海报。
格雷姆·斯隆/彭博社/盖蒂图片社
移民 联邦机构 选举 民意调查 国家安全
国会几乎可以肯定，将再次导致联邦政府大部分部门停摆。
在周五午夜的最后期限前，共和党人和民主党人之间几乎没有达成资助国土安全部的协议迹象。共和党高层于周四将其普通党员送回家。
一方最终将不得不让步，而拟议的移民执法改革的受欢迎程度将对哪一方“获胜”产生重大影响。与此同时，人们很快会看到对航空旅行、应急响应服务以及在某种程度上对移民执法的影响。
僵局源于对改革特朗普政府在明尼阿波利斯等地使用移民和海关执法局（ICE）和边境巡逻队的分歧，联邦探员在那里已经造成两人死亡：蕾妮·古德和亚历克斯·普雷蒂。特朗普政府周四宣布，将结束在明尼阿波利斯增派探员的行动。
共和党人和民主党人都表示，美国民众站在自己一边。特朗普政府和共和党人指出，数据显示美国人希望将非法移民驱逐出境。民主党人则坚持认为，美国民众支持他们，因为绝大多数人不赞成ICE的做法，并表示驱逐行动“走得太远”。
那么谁是对的？显然，美国人并不支持现状，本周美国全国广播公司新闻与SurveyMonkey的民调显示，70%的人希望至少对ICE进行改革（约30%的人希望废除ICE）。民主党人显然在这里拥有一些影响力。
但这种影响力有多大？让我们来分析一下民主党推动的几项具体提案。
结束巡逻执法
美国政府已非正式地略微放松了ICE在街头随机拦截的做法，至少目前如此。在第二次死亡事件后，边境负责人汤姆·霍曼接管明尼阿波利斯的行动时表示，行动将更加“有针对性”。
关于更正式的法律限制，民意调查结果有些复杂。
皮尤研究中心一年前的一项民调发现，66%的美国人认为执法部门应该能够在抗议或集会上逮捕非法移民。另有63%的人认为应该能够在其家中逮捕，54%的人认为应该能够在工作场所逮捕。
但这些问题都没有具体询问随机拦截街头人员的情况。皮尤研究中心当年晚些时候的民调显示，54%的人不赞成工作场所突袭。
尽管如此，似乎有理由认为，明尼阿波利斯探员在公共场所拦截人员的场景，在60%的美国人认为特朗普的移民执法“走得太远”这一结果中发挥了重要作用。
正当程序
民主党人指责特朗普政府称，它可以在没有司法令状的情况下进入某人的家中——而仅使用更容易获得的行政令状，由行政部门自己提供。
考虑到特朗普政府尽管在这方面屡犯错误，仍试图加速驱逐行动，民主党人还推动通过其他方式将正当程序法典化。
但众议院议长迈克·约翰逊称，要求司法令状是“不可行的提议”。特朗普政府则反复辩称，非法移民不应享有与公民同等的正当程序权利。
民调显示：美国人似乎认为，被ICE针对的人应有权充分质疑其驱逐决定。
路透社与益普索7月的一项民调显示，50%的美国人不同意“被怀疑的非法移民不应享有正当程序”这一说法，37%的人同意。
5月的一项公共宗教研究中心民调显示，美国人以61%对37%的优势反对像特朗普政府那样在没有正当程序的情况下将人驱逐到外国监狱。
佩戴口罩和随身摄像头
随身摄像头似乎是一个共识问题，最近的一项昆尼皮亚克大学民调显示，92%的人认为应该要求佩戴。国土安全部最近宣布，探员将佩戴摄像头。
ICE探员佩戴口罩的能力是两党之间更具争议的话题。民主党人警告说，口罩会让探员产生不受惩罚的感觉，而政府则表示，口罩对于防止“人肉搜索”（即分享探员的个人信息）至关重要，这可能导致探员成为目标。
但如果由美国民众决定，口罩将被禁止。
昆尼皮亚克民调显示，登记选民中61%的人认为不应允许佩戴口罩，35%的人认为应该允许。美国全国广播公司的民调显示，63%的美国人不赞成佩戴口罩。值得注意的是，强烈反对口罩的人（49%）大约是强烈赞成的两倍（24%）。
防止种族貌视
共和党人辩称，最近最高法院的裁决允许移民执法部门根据外貌或语言来针对人员。
尽管如此，这并不意味着美国人喜欢这一政策。皮尤民调上个月发现，72%的美国人认为移民官员以外貌或语言为由检查移民身份是不可接受的。
明尼阿波利斯流传甚广的一段视频显示，一名边境巡逻队探员告诉一名男子，他要求对方出示文件“因为你的口音”。当地警察局长引用了可能存在的种族貌视案例，而国土安全部对此予以否认。
提高官员标准
由于特朗普去年的重大议程法案中大幅增加了资金，政府迅速扩大了ICE。ICE很快成为资金最充足的联邦执法机构，遥遥领先。
民主党人长期以来一直担心，这可能导致大量训练不足的官员涌入。
很难衡量美国人对此的具体看法。但路透社与益普索本月的民调显示，80%的美国人认为培训和行为标准“极其”（57%）或“非常”（23%）重要。
统一行为准则
民主党人正在推动建立一个新的移民执法问责制度。美国人表示，他们希望加强监督。
民调反复显示，他们不信任政府能够实现这种问责——尤其是在政府明显试图避免对枪杀古德的ICE探员进行全面调查之后（政府表示，在两党呼吁后，将对普雷蒂的死亡进行更实质性的调查）。
古德被杀后，益普索上个月的一项民调显示，59%的美国人认为调查不会公平，39%的人认为会公平。
同样，昆尼皮亚克民调显示，61%的美国人认为政府没有如实说明普雷蒂被杀的情况，25%的人认为政府如实说明了。
高达80%的人表示应该进行“独立”调查。甚至多数共和党人（56%）也支持这一点。
移民 联邦机构 选举 民意调查 国家安全
How popular are Democrats’ shutdown demands on immigration?
Analysis by Aaron Blake
PUBLISHED Feb 13, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer points to a poster of Democrats’ demands for ICE reform, during a news conference at the US Capitol on Thursday.
Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Immigration Federal agencies Election polls National security
Congress is now virtually assured to, yet again, shut down major parts of the federal government.
There’s little sign of an agreement between Republicans and Democrats to fund the Department of Homeland Security ahead of the Friday midnight deadline. And GOP leaders sent their rank-and-file members home Thursday.
One side will eventually have to cave, and the popularity of proposed changes to immigration enforcement will have a major impact on which side “wins.” Meanwhile, people will soon see impacts on their air travel, emergency response services and, to some extent, immigration enforcement.
The standoff stems from disagreements about reforming the Trump administration’s use of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol in places like Minneapolis, where federal agents have killed two people: Renee Good and Alex Pretti. The Trump administration announced Thursday that it’s ending its surge of agents in Minneapolis.
Both Republicans and Democrats say the American people are on their side. The Trump administration and Republicans point to numbers that show Americans want undocumented immigrants to be deported. Democrats insist the American people side with them because a large majority disapprove of ICE and say the deportation effort has gone “too far.”
So who’s right? It’s clear Americans aren’t supporting the status quo, with an NBC News-SurveyMonkey poll this week showing 7 in 10 want to at least see changes to ICE (about 3 in 10 want it abolished). Democrats obviously have some leverage here.
But how much? Let’s break down a few of the specific proposals Democrats are pushing.
Ending roving patrols
ICE agents depart the Bishop Henry Whipple Federal Building in Minneapolis on February 4.
John Moore/Getty Images
The administration has unofficially backed off a bit on ICE conducting random stops in the street, at least for now. When border czar Tom Homan took over in Minneapolis after the second death, he signaled the operation would be more “targeted.”
The polling is a bit mixed on more official legal restrictions.
A Pew Research Center poll a year ago found 66% of Americans said law enforcement should be able to arrest undocumented immigrants at protests or rallies. Another 63% said it should be able to do so in their homes, and 54% said it should be fair game at workplaces.
But none of these specifically ask about stopping random people on the streets. And Pew polling later that year showed 54% disapproved of workplace raids.
Still, it seems logical to assume that the scenes of agents stopping people in public in Minneapolis have played a significant role in 6 in 10 Americans deciding that Trump’s immigration enforcement has gone “too far.”
Due process
Democrats have cried foul that the Trump administration has said it can enter someone’s home without a judicial warrant — instead using only an easier-to-obtain administrative warrant, which the executive branch itself provides.
And they’ve also pushed to codify due process in other ways, given how much the Trump administration has sought to accelerate deportations, despite a record of mistakes on this front.
But House Speaker Mike Johnson has called requiring judicial warrants “an unworkable proposal.” And the Trump administration has repeatedly argued that undocumented migrants shouldn’t get the same due process as citizens.
What polls show: It seems Americans do believe people targeted by ICE should have the right to sufficiently challenge their deportations.
A Reuters-Ipsos poll in July showed Americans disagreed 50%-37% with the idea that suspected undocumented migrants aren’t entitled to due process.
And a Public Religion Research Institute poll in May showed Americans by a 61%-37% margin opposed deporting people to foreign prisons without due process, as the Trump administration has done.
Masks and body cameras
Two ICE agents drive by a vigil near the site where Renee Good was killed in Minneapolis, on January 14.
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
Body cameras appear to be a consensus issue, with a recent Quinnipiac University poll showing 92% said they should be required. DHS recently announced that agents would wear them.
ICE agents’ ability to wear masks is a more contentious debate between the parties. Democrats warn they give agents a sense of impunity, while the administration has said they are important to prevent “doxxing,” or sharing the agents’ personal information, which can lead to them being targeted.
But if the American people decided, the masks would be out.
The Quinnipiac poll showed registered voters said 61%-35% that masks shouldn’t be permitted. And the NBC poll showed 63% of Americans disapproved of masks. Notably, about twice as many strongly opposed masks (49%) as strongly approved of them (24%).
Preventing racial profiling
Republicans have argued that recent Supreme Court rulings have allowed immigration enforcement to target people based on how they look or what language they speak.
Regardless, that doesn’t mean Americans are a fan of the policy. A Pew poll last month found 72% of Americans said it was unacceptable for immigration officers to use someone’s looks or language as a reason to check their immigration status.
A much-shared video from Minneapolis showed a Border Patrol agent telling a man he asked for his paperwork “because of your accent.” And local police chiefs have cited possible instances of racial profiling, which DHS has denied.
Increasing standards for officers
The administration has rapidly expanded ICE thanks to an explosion of funding in Trump’s big agenda bill last year. It quickly became the highest funded federal law enforcement agency, by far.
And Democrats have long worried that this could create an influx of insufficiently trained officers.
It’s difficult to measure how Americans feel about this specifically. But a Reuters-Ipsos poll this month showed 80% of Americans said training and conduct standards were “extremely” (57%) or “very” (23%) important.
Uniform code of conduct
Federal agents pin a protester to the ground anspray a chemical irritant into his face, in Minneapolis on January 21.
Richard Tsong-Taatarii/The Minnesota Star Tribune/Getty Images
Democrats are pushing to create a new system for accountability for immigration enforcement. And Americans have indicated they are interested in increased oversight.
Polling has repeatedly shown they don’t trust the administration to deliver that accountability — especially after it clearly sought to avoid a full-fledged investigation of the ICE officer who shot Good. (The administration has indicated it would conduct a more substantial investigation of Pretti’s death, after bipartisan calls for that.)
An Ipsos poll last month, after Good’s killing, showed Americans said 59%-39% that they weren’t confident the investigation would be fair.
Likewise, the Quinnipiac poll showed Americans said 61%-25% that the administration hadn’t given an honest account of Pretti’s killing.
And a whopping 80% said there should be an “independent” investigation. Even a majority of Republicans (56%) supported that.
Immigration Federal agencies Election polls National security
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