2024年，移民问题曾是投票站的核心议题，助力总统唐纳德·特朗普和共和党人取得压倒性胜利。
但在特朗普史无前例的非法移民打击行动引发新的政治反弹后，最新的相关民调向共和党人发出警示信号，表明移民问题可能在今年的中期选举中再次成为共和党人的“咬噬点”——共和党需捍卫其在参众两院微弱的多数优势。
北卡罗来纳州共和党全国委员会主席理查德·哈德逊众议员告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，在移民问题上，“我认为这对我们竞选非常有利。”
然而，新的民调——在周四特朗普政府宣布逐步结束今年早些时候在明尼苏达州大规模部署戴面具联邦移民特工行动之后，但在上个月这些特工枪杀雷妮·妮可·古德和亚历克斯·普雷蒂的致命事件之后——却显示出相反的趋势。
今年早些时候，特朗普政府部署了数千名联邦特工到明尼苏达州，作为打击非法移民行动的一部分。（斯蒂芬·马图伦/盖蒂图片社）
皮尤研究中心和NORC联合民调（2月5日至8日进行）显示，特朗普在移民问题上的支持率为38%。这比去年3月（总统第二任期刚满一个月时）的49%有所下降。
同样在最新的昆尼皮亚克大学民调（1月29日至2月2日进行）中，38%的受访者对总统在移民问题上的表现表示认可。这比12月中旬的44%有所下滑。
在最新的全国广播公司新闻决策部门民调中，特朗普的支持率为40%，较去年4月的49%下降。该调查于1月27日至2月6日进行。
而福克斯新闻全国民调（1月23日至26日）显示，总统在边境安全问题上的支持率为52%对47%，但在移民问题上的支持率却低于反对率，为45%对55%。
2026年2月7日周六，明尼苏达州反移民和海关执法局（ICE）抗议者聚集。（美联社照片/瑞安·墨菲）
所有这些民调的一个共同主题是：尽管共和党人继续强烈支持总统及其政党在移民问题上的立场，但独立人士正与民主党人一道强烈反对。
特朗普政府周四宣布，鉴于持续的抗议以及该蓝领倾向州民主党高层的持续反对，将逐步取消在明尼苏达州的移民行动。
“本周已开始大规模撤退，下周将继续。”边境负责人汤姆·霍曼表示。
但他补充说：“由于我们在此所做的努力，明尼苏达州现在对犯罪分子来说不再是‘庇护州’。”
资深共和党策略师科林·里德指出，回顾特朗普一年前的果断行动，“关闭南部边境是一项重大成就，并且迅速有效地实现，以至于许多选民已经忘记了拜登政府时期情况有多糟糕。”
“这是一个在整个政治光谱中都极具影响力的议题，应该并且能够成为11月选举前的政治顺风。”他补充道。
但里德强调：“无论原因是什么，明尼苏达州近期发生的事件对白宫或共和党品牌都无裨益，他们明智地改变策略，降温局势。”
民主党全国委员会（DNC）强调了总统在移民问题上支持率的下滑，以及显示对移民和海关执法局（ICE）特工行动不满情绪上升的民调。
民主党全国委员会主席肯·马丁周四在致福克斯新闻数字频道的声明中指责特朗普政府制造“政治噱头”，“用戴面具的特工充斥社区，制造恐惧文化，让全国各地、各政治派别的美国人不敢去杂货店或接孩子放学。”
“美国人不支持ICE的所作所为，民主党全国委员会将继续追究该政府的责任，揭露ICE的这些可怕袭击，并在中期选举前阻止该政府滥用职权。”马丁强调。
哈德逊则抨击主流媒体所谓的“虚假叙事”。
“现在主流媒体有很多这样的虚假报道，但这不是事实。”他告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，“由于这些行动，民众在家会感到更安全。特朗普总统做了正确的事。”
最新的AP/NORC民调显示，共和党人在移民问题上略占民主党上风。
当被问及移民是否仍将是中期选举的制胜议题时，众议院共和党竞选负责人表示：“我们承诺并兑现了将这些危险罪犯赶出你们社区的承诺。”
保罗·施泰因豪泽是派驻摇摆州新罕布什尔州的政治记者，他报道从海岸到海岸的竞选活动。
It was a top issue at the ballot box in 2024 that boosted President Donald Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories.
But in the wake of new political backlash over Trump’s unprecedented illegal immigration crackdown, the latest polling on the issue raises warning signs for Republicans and suggests immigration may come back to take a bite out of the GOP in this year’s midterm elections, as the party defends its slim House and Senate majorities.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina told Fox News Digital that when it comes to the issue of immigration, “I think it’s going to be very helpful for us going into the election.”
But new polling — conducted before Thursday’s announcement that the Trump administration was winding down the massive deployment earlier this year of masked federal immigration agents in Minnesota, but after last month’s fatal shootings by those agents of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti — suggests otherwise.
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President Donald Trump’s administration deployed a couple of thousand federal agents to Minnesota earlier this year as part of an operation to crack down on illegal immigration.(Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
The president’s approval on immigration stands at 38% in an AP-NORC poll conducted Feb. 5-8. That’s a drop from 49% last March, just over a month into the president’s second term in the White House.
A similar 38% gave the president a thumbs up on immigration in the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, which was in the field Jan. 29-Feb. 2. That’s down from 44% in mid-December.
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And Trump stood at 40% approval in the latest NBC News Decision Desk poll, a drop from 49% last April. The survey questioned respondents from Jan. 27-Feb. 6.
And the most recent Fox News national poll, conducted Jan. 23–26, indicated the president’s approval on handling border security at 52%-47%, but his approval on immigration underwater at 45%-55%.
Anti-ICE protesters gathered in Minnesota on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026.(AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)
A common theme in all these polls: while Republicans continue to strongly support the president and their party on immigration, independents are joining Democrats in strongly disapproving.
The Trump administration announced on Thursday that it was unwinding its immigration operation in Minnesota, amid ongoing protests and continued opposition from top Democrats in the blue-leaning state.
“A significant drawdown has already been underway this week, and will continue to the next week,” border czar Tom Homan said.
But he added that “as a result of our efforts here, Minnesota is now less of a sanctuary state for criminals.”
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Pointing to Trump’s swift actions a year ago, veteran Republican strategist Colin Reed noted that “shutting down the southern border was such a major accomplishment and achieved so quickly and effectively that many voters have forgotten just how bad things got under the Biden Administration.”
“It’s an issue that resonated powerfully across the political spectrum, and one that should and can be a political tailwind heading into November,” he added.
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But Reed highlighted that “regardless of the cause, the recent events in Minnesota were not helpful to the White House or Republican brand, and they were wise to change course and bring down the temperature.”
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has highlighted the president’s sagging approval ratings on immigration and polls showing rising disenchantment with the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
DNC chair Ken Martin, in a statement Thursday to Fox News Digital, charged that the Trump administration had created “political theater, flooding communities with masked agents and creating a culture of fear where Americans across the country and across the political spectrum are afraid to go to the grocery store or to pick up their kids at school.”
“Americans don’t support what ICE is doing, and the DNC will continue to hold this administration accountable, highlighting these horrendous assaults by ICE and marching towards the midterms to put a check on the abuses of this administration,” Martin emphasized.
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But Hudson is taking aim at what he calls a false narrative from the mainstream media.
“There’s a whole lot of that coming out of the mainstream media right now, and it’s just not true,” he told Fox News Digital. “People are going to feel more secure at home because of these efforts. President Trump’s doing the right thing.”
The new AP/NORC poll indicates Republicans with a slight edge over Democrats on the immigration issue.
Asked if immigration will still be a winning issue in the midterms, the House GOP campaign chief said: “It’s a promise made, a promise kept, that we are getting these dangerous criminals out of your neighborhood.”
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast.
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