2026-02-09T16:08:00-0500 / CBS新闻
专家表示，特朗普总统为帮助缓解消费者成本而推动美国增加从阿根廷进口牛肉的举措，可能产生的影响将小于白宫的预期。
据特朗普政府称，周五特朗普在两国新贸易协议背景下签署的行政令允许阿根廷今年向美国免税出口额外8万吨牛肉。该指令适用于用于生产碎牛肉的瘦牛肉边角料进口。
“作为美国总统，我有责任确保辛勤工作的美国人能够负担得起养活自己和家人的费用，”特朗普在行政令中表示。
但密歇根州立大学食品经济学教授大卫·奥尔特加告诉CBS新闻，8万吨牛肉仅占美国牛肉总供应量的0.6%——这一数量太少，不足以影响价格，他表示。
“我们谈论的是不到1%的供应量，”奥尔特加说。”因此，我不期望这会对这些价格产生太大影响。现在，这不会有伤害，但我们谈论的进口量不会立即抑制价格。”
根据Statista分享的美国农业部数据，2024年美国生产了近270亿磅牛肉。
牛肉价格上涨的原因
根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据，美国各地的平均碎牛肉价格在12月达到每磅6.69美元，较一年前上涨19%。五年前，消费者每磅碎牛肉只需3.95美元。
牛肉价格飙升的最大因素：极端天气导致美国牛群数量减少。干旱（包括2022年影响牛肉生产州的近期干旱）使农民难以种植饲料所需的作物，并迫使许多牧场主出售肉牛。据白宫称，野火也摧毁了用于养牛的草原。
相比之下，圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据显示，受2022年禽流感疫情影响（当时数百万禽类被销毁）而价格飙升的鸡肉和鸡蛋价格近期有所回落。
“虽然鸡蛋、猪肉和鸡肉等其他蛋白质的价格近几个月有所下降，但牛肉价格仍然居高不下，”农业部发言人在电子邮件中表示。”这是由于消费者对牛肉的需求持续增长，加上活牛供应长期减少，形成了’完美风暴’。”
根据美国农业部数据，1月1日该国肉牛存栏量为2760万头，同比下降1%。总体而言，美国牛的总数处于75年来的最低水平。
白宫上周在情况说明书中承认了美国面临的供应挑战。
“特朗普总统正在应对市场挑战，通过多方面采取行动，确保美国家庭能以负担得起的价格获得充足的碎牛肉供应。”
那么什么能降低成本？
俄克拉荷马州立大学农业经济学教授德里尔·皮尔也对行政令能否帮助缓解国内消费者成本表示怀疑，他表示”政府在短期内无法降低美国牛肉价格”。
皮尔解释说，降低价格的关键在于重建牛群供应，这一过程可能需要数年时间。他指出，部分努力将需要保留用于繁殖的雌性牛（称为小母牛），而不是为满足消费者对牛肉的需求而宰杀它们。
“我们现在面临创纪录的高价，这种情况将持续到我们重建牛群为止，”他说。
编辑：阿隆·舍特
美联社对本报道有贡献。
More Argentina beef imports won’t do much to ease costs for consumers, according to experts
2026-02-09T16:08:00-0500 / CBS News
President Trump’s move to boost U.S. imports of beef from Argentina to help ease costs for consumers may have less impact than the White House is hoping for, experts said.
The executive order, which Mr. Trump signed on Friday amid a new trade deal between the two countries, allows Argentina to export an additional 80,000 metric tons of beef to the U.S. tariff-free this year, according to the Trump administration. The directive applies to imports of lean beef trimmings, which are used to produce ground beef.
“As President of the United States, I have a responsibility to ensure that hardworking Americans can afford to feed themselves and their families,” Mr. Trump said in the order.
But David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, told CBS News that 80,000 tons of beef represents only 0.6% of the overall U.S. beef supply — too little to move the needle on prices, he said.
“We’re talking about less than 1% of supply,” Ortega said. “And so I wouldn’t expect this to have much of an impact on these prices. Now, it doesn’t hurt, but we’re not talking about any major quantities that we are importing that would immediately suppress prices.”
The U.S. produced nearly 27 billion pounds of beef in 2024, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shared on Statista.
What drove up beef prices
Average ground beef prices around the U.S. reached $6.69 a pound in December, up 19% from a year ago, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Five years ago, consumers could buy a pound of ground beef for $3.95.
The biggest factor behind the jump in beef prices: Extreme weather conditions that have shrunk the nation’s cattle supply. Droughts, including a recent bout of dry weather in 2022 that affected beef-producing states, have made it harder for farmers to grow crops needed for feedstock and forced many cattle ranchers to sell off their beef cows. Wildfires have also ravaged grasslands used to graze cattle, according to the White House.
By contrast, the cost of chicken and eggs, which spiked in 2022 amid an avian flu outbreak that required the destruction of millions of birds, has recently dipped, St. Louis Fed figures show.
“While prices for other proteins such as eggs, pork and chicken have declined in recent months, beef prices remain elevated,” a Department of Agriculture spokesperson said in an email. “This is due to the perfect storm of sustained increase in consumer demand for beef, coupled with a prolonged decrease in the supply of live cattle.”
The country’s beef cattle supply stood at 27.6 million on Jan. 1, down 1% from a year ago, according to USDA data. Overall, the total number of cattle in the U.S. is at a 75-year-low.
In a fact sheet last week, the White House acknowledged the supply challenges facing the U.S.
“President Trump is responding to market challenges and ensuring a plentiful ground beef supply for American families at affordable prices by taking action on multiple fronts.”
So what would lower costs?
Derrell Peel, a professor in the department of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, also expressed skepticism that the executive order will help ease costs for domestic consumers, saying there’s “nothing that the administration can do in the short run to make U.S. beef prices come down.”
That’s because the key to lowering prices will be to rebuild the cattle supply, a process that will likely take several years, Peel explained. Part of that effort will require saving female cows, known as heifers, for breeding, instead of killing them to meet consumer demand for beef, Peel noted.
“We have record-high cattle prices, and we’re going to continue to until we regrow,” he said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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