分析 由 [斯蒂芬·科林森] 撰写
2小时前
发布时间 2026年2月9日，美国东部时间上午12:00
唐纳德·特朗普
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活在记忆中的最不稳定总统，正愈发受个人突发奇想的驱使。
唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统第二任期头几个月中，那些精心起草的行政命令重塑了华盛顿格局并改变了美国全球优先事项的有条不紊执行，如今已成为历史。
关闭美国国际开发署（USAID）、削减联邦政府、攻击常春藤盟校课程——这些举措或许颇具争议，但它们源自特朗普在白宫四年流亡期间制定的理性行动手册。
但最近，特朗普似乎比以往更多地“即兴发挥”。而且他变得愈发极端。他在华盛顿的暴躁脾气（与他在佛罗里达家中周末时更阳光的情绪形成鲜明对比）正日益构成威胁。
他追求统治的激进程度，可能取决于其强人式爆发与偶尔制约他的国内外政治现实之间的张力。
动荡年份中的疯狂一周
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就在上周，特朗普在其Truth Social社交平台上转发的一段卡通视频将奥巴马夫妇描绘成猿类，引发了有生以来最具种族主义色彩的白宫言论，从而激起公愤。
特朗普最近又将矛头对准选举，美国国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard）前往佐治亚州寻找证据，以证明他对2020年选举舞弊的病态痴迷。上周他又提出新担忧，称他将通过要求全国性投票（注：此处原文为“demanding the nationalization of voting”，指要求将投票系统“国有化”，可能为“全国化”或“集中化”，需结合上下文理解）来干预11月的中期选举。
美国联邦调查局（FBI）于1月28日在佐治亚州富尔顿县选举中心及运营中心执行搜查令，与2020年选举相关。
Alyssa Pointer/路透社
美国国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德在佐治亚州Union City的富尔顿县选举中心外，站在一辆装满箱子的车辆旁通话。
Elijah Nouvelage/路透社
与此同时，特朗普对移民的强硬打击政策引发混乱，两名美国公民在联邦特工被派往明尼苏达州执行任务时遭枪击。特朗普现在呼吁采取“更温和的态度”，但这可能只是为了缓解一场让许多选民疏远的清洗行动带来的灾难性形象。而身着卡其色制服的联邦特工进入城市街道，正是特朗普不断要求执法军事化的直接结果。
此外，特朗普对自身遗产的执念以及四处彰显其姓名的狂热行为在上周又有新动向：据报道，他希望将杜勒斯国际机场和纽约市宾夕法尼亚车站以自己的名字命名。
周日，他又在Truth Social上发表长篇抨击言论，指责波多黎各籍明星巴迪·布尼（Bad Bunny）的超级碗中场秀是“对美国伟大精神的冒犯”，称“没人听得懂这个人在说什么，而且跳舞很恶心，尤其是对小孩子来说”。
此前，总统曾抨击美国奥运滑雪选手亨特·赫斯（Hunter Hess），后者表示“仅仅是穿上国旗并不意味着我代表美国正在发生的一切”。特朗普回应称：“如果是这样，他就不应该参加国家队选拔，可惜他现在还在队里。”
时不时地，特朗普也会展现出常规、战略性的一面——例如上周推出的“特朗普药品网”（TrumpRx）网站，旨在降低药品价格——尽管该计划比他常声称的要严格得多。
但越来越多的印象是，这位总统专注于自身反复无常的目标，对普通选民的困境漠不关心。例如，他在周日播出的超级碗采访中告诉NBC新闻，自己“非常自豪”于经济状况，并误导性地声称他全面降低了食品价格。尽管股市表现强劲——道琼斯工业平均指数上周首次突破50,000点——但特朗普经济尚未惠及所有收入阶层。
这种冲动的自我痴迷带来的政治代价正变得清晰。上个月的一项CNN民调显示，只有36%的美国人认为总统有正确的优先事项，较其任期初期的45%有所下降。只有三分之一的美国人表示相信特朗普关心像他们这样的人，较去年3月的40%进一步下滑，创其政治生涯中最低评级。
格陵兰岛事件揭示：疯狂言论如何转化为政策
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一些政府政策显示出一定程度的规划和执行——例如突袭推翻了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicholas Maduro）。但类似其第一任期新冠疫情期间领导风格的混乱和不可预测性正在加剧。
今年的一个反复出现的模式是：总统发表疯狂评论或指控后，官员们急忙为其冲动行为辩护并采取行动。
这一点在特朗普1月要求丹麦割让格陵兰岛，险些破坏北约关系时得到体现。这也反映在他无休止地调整关税上。
然而，格陵兰岛风波也表明，即便是特朗普，有时也会遇到国际或国内现实的阻碍。欧洲的抵制和共和党人对其格陵兰岛策略的愤怒，促使他在访问瑞士达沃斯后退缩。
在其他时候，其总统职位政治地位的下降迫使他重新评估，例如共和党人的愤怒导致他从Truth Social网站删除了那段种族主义视频。
特朗普渴望行使越来越不受约束的权力，与对其行动的政治和宪法限制之间的这种拉锯战，正成为中期选举年政治的核心特征。
选举结果将显示全国选民是否希望约束特朗普，或继续给他广泛的行动空间，以及他是否会接受民主裁决。
冰岛上的示威活动反对特朗普要求将北极岛屿割让给美国
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没有人知道特朗普下一步会做什么，或许他自己也不清楚。但本周美国国内可以确定的一个紧张点是与美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）相关的冲突。
民主党人希望利用对国土安全部预算的拨款斗争（可能在本周末前引发政府停摆），在雷尼·古德（Renee Good）和亚历克斯·普雷蒂（Alex Pretti）被杀后，限制ICE特工的权力。
联邦特工于2月5日在明尼阿波利斯进行移民执法行动。
Ryan Murphy/美联社
明尼阿波利斯Nicollet大道上，一名行人走向催泪瓦斯罐。
Ben Hovland/明尼苏达公共广播电台/美联社
“我们知道ICE完全失控了，”民主党众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）在周日的“国情咨文”节目中告诉CNN的达娜·巴什（Dana Bash），“他们走得太远了，美国民众希望约束他们，因为移民执法应该公平、公正且人道。”
但共和党人予以反击，尽管特朗普呼吁采取更温和的态度，并于上周向明尼苏达州ICE官员发放了随身摄像机。
这场冲突将再次考验民主党人能否利用公众对特朗普日益增长的不满，在国会山和白宫失势的情况下对其政策施加有意义的限制。
上周，政府表示将从明尼阿波利斯撤回700名ICE特工。正如特朗普呼吁“更温和的接触”一样，这一举措在公众对其执法方式产生反感后，带来了一定的舆论改善。
“我们撤回的原因是我们在那里做得很好，”特朗普在超级碗采访中告诉NBC新闻。
“这是一段令人作呕的视频”
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特朗普拒绝为其Truth Social网站上发布的种族主义视频道歉，凸显了其一贯的怪异行为历史如何使其免受行动后果的影响。如果是普通企业CEO发布此类内容，可能会被解雇。但白宫最初将批评归咎于被冒犯者，而非冒犯内容本身。
但共和党人对该帖子的愤怒，包括唯一的黑人共和党参议员蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott）的谴责，迅速侵蚀了这一立场的政治基础。内容被删除，一名工作人员被指责为发布者。特朗普坚称自己并未看到冒犯性内容，但拒绝道歉，称自己“没有做错任何事”。
他的拒不认错引发了周日新一轮批评。
“他必须明确道歉，这是一段令人作呕的视频，”杰弗里斯在“国情咨文”节目中表示，“总统受到了来自全国各地民主党人，甚至少数共和党人的强烈谴责，后者终于展现出反抗总统恶性‘底层行为’的骨气。”
正在中期选举最关键选区之一竞选连任的纽约共和党众议员迈克·劳勒（Mike Lawler）也谴责了这一帖子：“我认为有时候最好的做法是说‘我很抱歉’并做得更好。”他补充道，此类内容不应出现在美国。
如果这一帖子是孤立事件，或许还能理解。
但越来越多的证据表明，这种极端主义已成为特朗普第二任期的主要特征。
唐纳德·特朗普
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（注：原文中所有图片链接、社交媒体按钮及重复署名均按原样保留）
Trump’s growing volatility is putting the world on edge
Analysis by
[Stephen Collinson]
2 hr ago
PUBLISHED Feb 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Donald Trump
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The most volatile president in living memory is becoming ever more driven by the whiplash of his personal whims.
The disciplined execution of the early months of President Donald Trump’s second term — when well-drafted executive orders reshaped Washington and America’s global priorities — are now a memory.
Shuttering USAID, gutting the federal government, and assaulting the Ivy League curriculum might have been controversial. But they sprang from a rational playbook drawn up during Trump’s four-year exile from the White House.
But lately Trump seems to be winging it more than usual. And he’s getting more extreme. His brittle temper in Washington — a contrast to his sunnier mood at weekends at home in Florida — is increasingly threatening.
How far he goes in his quest for dominance may depend on the tension between his strongman outbursts and domestic and international political realities that occasionally rein him in.
A wild week in a volatile year
Just last week, Trump sparked outrage with the most racist messaging anyone can remember from a White House when a reposted cartoon video on his Truth Social account depicted Barack and Michelle Obama as apes.
Trump recently took fresh aim at elections, with America’s top intelligence official Tulsi Gabbard traveling to Georgia to search for evidence to prove his false obsession about fraud in 2020. He raised new concerns last week that he’ll try to fix November’s midterms by demanding the nationalization of voting.
The FBI executed a search warrant at the Fulton County Election Hub and Operation Center in Georgia in relation to the 2020 election, on January 28.
Alyssa Pointer/Reuters
US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard speaks on the phone while standing inside a vehicle loaded with boxes outside the Fulton County Election Hub and Operation Center in Union City, Georgia, on January 28.
Elijah Nouvelage/Reuters
At the same time, confusion mounted over the status of his migrant crackdown, after two US citizens were shot by federal agents sent to Minnesota. Trump’s now calling for a “softer touch.” But this may only be a rebrand to ease disastrous optics of a purge that alienated many voters. And the federal agents sent into city streets in khakis were the direct result of Trump’s relentless personal demands for the militarization of law enforcement.
Meanwhile, Trump’s fixation with his legacy and his manic efforts to plaster his name everywhere took another twist last week, when it was reported he wanted Dulles International Airport and New York City’s Penn Station renamed after him.
On Sunday, he went on another Truth Social tirade, slamming the Super Bowl half time show by Puerto Rican star Bad Bunny as an “Affront to the Greatness of America,” saying that “Nobody understands a word this guy is saying, and the dancing is disgusting, especially for young children.”
Earlier, the president had lashed out at US Olympic skier Hunter Hess who had said that just because he was “wearing the flag doesn’t mean I represent everything that’s going on in the US.” Trump wrote, “If that’s the case, he shouldn’t have tried out for the Team, and it’s too bad he’s on it.”
Now and again, Trump acts in a conventional, strategic manner — for instance with his unveiling last week of a TrumpRx website designed to lower drugs prices — although the plan is far more restrictive than he often claims.
But the impression of a president concentrating on his own, often erratic goals while being indifferent to the plight of ordinary voters is growing. He told NBC News in a Super Bowl interview aired Sunday, for example, that he was “very proud” of the economy, making a misleading case that he’d lowered grocery prices across the board. While the stock market has been in robust health — the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 last week for the first time — the Trump economy has yet to deliver its benefits to all income levels.
The political cost of this impulsive self-obsession is becoming clear. In a CNN poll last month, only 36% of Americans said the president had the right priorities, down from 45% near the beginning of his term. Only one-third of Americans said they believed that Trump cares about people like them, down from 40% last March and the worst rating of his political career.
Greenland shows how wild rhetoric becomes policy
Some administration policies have shown some level of planning and delivery — like the raid that toppled President Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela. But chaos and unpredictability reminiscent of Trump’s leadership during the Covid-19 pandemic in his first term are mounting.
One repeating pattern this year has been when the president lashes out with a wild comment or accusation. Officials rush to justify and act on his impulse.
Protesters gather in Nuuk, Greenland against President Donald Trump’s demand that the Arctic island be ceded to the U.S., January 17.
Marko Djurica/Reuters
This was the case when Trump’s demands for Denmark to cede Greenland in January nearly broke NATO. It also manifests in Trump’s incessant tinkering with tariffs.
The Greenland eruption, however, also showed that even Trump sometimes comes up against international or domestic realities. European resistance and Republican anger over his Greenland gambit triggered a climbdown after a trip to Davos, Switzerland.
At other times, the diminished political standing of his presidency forces a recalculation, as happened when Republican anger led to him taking down the racist video from his Truth Social site.
This push and pull between Trump’s desire to wield ever more unaccountable power and remaining political and constitutional restraints on his actions is coming to define the politics of midterm election year.
The election will show whether voters nationwide want to rein Trump in or grant him continued expansive leeway. And whether he will accept their democratic verdict.
ICE showdown looms
No one knows what Trump will do next. And perhaps he doesn’t either. But one showdown that the country can bank on this week is over ICE.
Democrats hope to use a funding fight over the Department of Homeland Security budget that threatens to cause a government shutdown by the end of the week to impose limits on ICE agents after the killing of Renee Good and Alex Pretti.
Federal agents conduct immigration enforcement operations, February 5, in Minneapolis.
Ryan Murphy/AP
A person walks toward a teargas canister on Nicollet Avenue in Minneapolis on January 24.
Ben Hovland/Minnesota Public Radio/AP
“We know that ICE is completely and totally out of control,” Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union” on Sunday. “They have gone way too far, and the American people want them reined in, because immigration enforcement should be fair, it should be just, and it should be humane.”
But Republicans are pushing back, notwithstanding Trump’s call for a softer approach and the issuing of body cameras to ICE officers in Minnesota last week.
The clash will again test whether Democrats can use growing public disquiet with Trump to impose meaningful constraints on his policies despite being locked out of power on Capitol Hill and in the White House.
Last week, the administration said it would pull back 700 ICE agents from Minneapolis. This, like Trump’s call for a “softer touch” generated helpful headlines after the public turned on his enforcement methods.
“The reason we’re pulling out because we’ve done a great job there,” Trump told NBC News in his Super Bowl interview.
‘It was a disgusting video’
Trump’s refusal to apologize for the racist video that was posted on his Truth Social site underscores how his history of outlandish conduct has insulated him against the consequences of his actions. A CEO who posted such material could expect to lose their job. But the White House initially blamed the backlash not on the offensive content but on those who were offended.
President Donald Trump speaks to the press before departing the White House en route to Palm Beach, Florida, on February 6,, in Washington, DC.
Anadolu/Anadolu/Anadolu via Getty Images
But Republican anger over the post, including condemnation from the only Black GOP senator Tim Scott quickly eroded the political foundation of that position. The content was deleted and a staffer was blamed for posting it. Trump insisted he’d not seen the part that was offensive. But he refused to apologize, saying that he’d done nothing wrong.
His recalcitrance set off a new wave of criticism on Sunday.
“He definitively needs to apologize. It was a disgusting video,” Jeffries said on “State of the Union.” “The president was rightly and appropriately and forcefully denounced by people all across the country, Democrats, and even a handful of Republicans, who finally showed some backbone in pushing back against the president’s malignant, bottom-feeder-like behavior.”
New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who is running for reelection in one of the most competitive districts in the midterms, also condemned the post. “I think sometimes it’s just best to say ‘I’m sorry’ and do better,” Lawler told ABC, adding that such content shouldn’t exist in America.
If the post was an outlier, it would be one thing.
But there’s growing evidence that such extremism is a dominant feature of Trump’s second term.
Donald Trump
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