2026年2月6日 / 美国东部时间下午5:21 / CBS新闻
预计周日的超级碗赛事将吸引体育博彩公司创下17.6亿美元的投注记录。在联邦监管机构放宽限制的鼓舞下，一种新型投注方式——预测市场——也有望在当晚分一杯羹。
近年来，预测市场作为一个平台应运而生，人们可以在这里对一系列令人眼花缭乱的未知结果进行”投资”，其中就包括对周日这场大型赛事结果的投注。
两大最大的预测市场平台Kalshi和Polymarket曾是拜登政府时期联邦执法行动的目标。但上周，负责监管这一新兴领域的联邦机构——商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）做出的一项决定，可能让它们在周日有望获得一笔巨额收益。
该机构主席迈克尔·塞利格上周在声明中宣布，委员会将放弃2024年提出的禁止政治和体育相关合约的规则提案。他表示，委员会将制定”明确的规则和清晰的认识，即[联邦政府]支持这些市场中的合法创新”。
这一决定反映了特朗普政府推动放宽对另类货币和投资形式的限制。批评人士指出，这两家领先的预测市场公司都任命了总统之子小唐纳德·特朗普担任其董事会正式顾问职务。
由于联邦政府对预测市场的立场发生转变，与体育相关的交易份额有所扩大。博彩行业顾问达斯汀·古克表示，在Kalshi平台上，体育相关投注约占交易量的90%。
古克也是《Closing Line》的出版商，该刊物提供博彩行业的分析和突发新闻。他告诉CBS新闻，对于特朗普政府改变立场并不感到意外，他表示规则制定将在巩固预测市场未来增长能力方面发挥关键作用。
“这是在大声宣告，’嘿，联邦政府希望预测市场存在’”，他说，”这是预测市场增长道路上的一个信号，表明它不会在短期内消失。”
他表示担忧的是，与体育相关的合约可能会进一步模糊体育博彩（在部分州不合法）与投资之间的界限。
“我们现在不仅有体育博彩，而且在50个州几乎可以对任何你想投注的事件下注”，他说，”这是一件我们几乎没经过深思熟虑就做了的大事。”
尽管联邦监管机构商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）似乎为与政治和体育赛事相关的合约扫清了障碍，但并非所有人都支持其突然增长，包括美国国家橄榄球联盟（NFL）。联盟宣布了一项新举措，以防止预测市场在比赛期间获得更大影响力。
据一位熟悉联盟广告政策的消息人士透露，与预测市场相关的广告将不允许在本周日的超级碗期间播放。这一决定是在12月NFL公共事务和政策执行副总裁杰夫·米勒在众议院委员会作证一个月后做出的。
米勒在准备好的证词中表示：”联盟’没有参与预测市场的计划，原因是这些市场的运作方式以及对体育赛事公正性可能产生的影响存在若干未解决的法律、监管和商业问题。’”
米勒警告称，与体育相关的博彩合约的巨额资金推动可能会”对比赛公正性造成更大的实质性风险”。
Kalshi表示，其已采取了保障措施，吹嘘拥有”广泛的内部监控系统，可监测可疑活动”，并与IC360（一家全国性体育博彩公司和体育联盟使用的诚信监控公司）建立了合作关系。
CBS新闻已联系Polymarket请求置评。
《输掉大笔钱：美国对体育博彩的鲁莽赌注》一书作者乔纳森·科恩告诉CBS新闻，他认为后果不仅限于体育公正性。
“体育博彩公司没有做足够的工作来保护消费者，而预测市场在保护消费者方面需要做的甚至更少”，他说。
科恩担心，预测市场的流行度上升，再加上全国范围内的可及性，将对年轻男性造成毁灭性影响。2024年费尔利迪金森大学的一项民意调查发现，24%的男性报告有至少一种赌博问题行为，而30岁及以下男性这一比例上升至45%。
“我们所做的是释放了一种技术上得到强化的赌博形式，它可能会诱捕年轻男性，这尤其会使年轻男性及其财务和心理健康面临风险”，他说。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/wanna-bet-online-prediction-markets-wager-that-you-will/
Prediction markets soar ahead of 2026 Super Bowl
February 6, 2026 / 5:21 PM EST / CBS News
Sunday’s Super Bowl is expected to see a record $1.76 billion wagered with sportsbooks. Emboldened by loosened restrictions from federal regulators, a newer form of betting — prediction markets — will also be looking to cash in on the night.
Prediction markets have emerged in recent years as a platform to place “investments” on the answers to a dizzying array of unknowns — including wagers on outcomes relating to Sunday’s big game.
Two of the largest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, once were targets of federal enforcement actions under the Biden administration. But a decision last week from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, an obscure federal agency that oversees the burgeoning field, could give them a chance at a major payout come Sunday.
In a statement last week, agency chair Michael Selig announced the commission will move away from its 2024 rule proposal which sought to prohibit political and sports-related contracts. Instead, he said the agency would draft “clear rules and a clear understanding that the [federal government] supports lawful innovation in these markets.”
The decision reflects the Trump administration’s push to lift restrictions on alternative forms of currency and investment. Critics have noted that the two leading prediction market companies appointed the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., to formal advisory roles on their boards of directors.
Since the federal government has changed its position on prediction markets, the share of action relating to sports has expanded. Betting on sports represents roughly 90% of trading volume on Kalshi, says Dustin Gouker, a gaming industry consultant.
Gouker is also the publisher of the Closing Line, which provides analysis and breaking news on the gambling industry. He told CBS News he wasn’t surprised to hear the Trump administration’s change in course, saying rule-making will play a key role in solidifying prediction markets’ ability to grow in the future.
“It is saying out loud, ‘Hey the federal government wants prediction markets to exist,’” he said. “It’s a sign along the road toward prediction market growth, that this isn’t going away in the short term.”
He said he worries that sports-related contracts could further blur the lines between what is sports gambling — which is not legal in some states — versus investing.
“We now have not just sports betting, but betting on pretty much any event that you want in 50 states,” he said. “That’s a huge thing that we’ve basically done with very little thought.”
While the federal regulator, the CFTC, has seemingly cleared the way for political and sports-event related contracts, not everyone is on board with its sudden growth, including the NFL. The league announced a new move to prevent prediction markets from gaining even more traction during the game.
According to a source familiar with the league’s advertising policy, commercials relating to prediction markets will not be permitted to air during the Super Bowl this Sunday. The decision came a month after Jeff Miller, the NFL’s executive vice president of public affairs and policy, testified before a House committee in December.
The league “has no plans to participate in prediction markets due to several outstanding legal, regulatory, and commercial concerns on how these markets operate and the possible impact on the integrity of sporting events,” Miller said in prepared remarks.
Miller warned that the large monetary push of sports-related gaming contracts could pose “substantially greater risks to contest integrity.”
Kalshi says it has safeguards in place, touting its “extensive in-house surveillance monitors for suspicious activity” alongside a partnership with IC360, an integrity monitoring firm that is used by sportsbooks and sports leagues across the nation.
CBS News has reached out to Polymarket for comment.
Jonathan Cohen, author of “Losing Big: America’s Reckless Bet on Sports Gambling,” told CBS News that he believes the consequences extend beyond sports integrity.
“Sports gambling companies are not required to do enough to protect consumers, and prediction markets are required to do even less to protect consumers,” he said.
Cohen worries that the rise in popularity of prediction markets, coupled with their nationwide access will have devastating impacts on young men. A 2024 poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University found that 24% of men reported at least one problem gambling behavior. That figure rose to 45% for men 30 and under.
“What we’ve done is unleashed a technologically supercharged version of gambling that can ensnare young men, and that puts young men and their finances and their mental health particularly at risk,” he said.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/wanna-bet-online-prediction-markets-wager-that-you-will/
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