2026-01-22T13:35:53.199Z / 路透社
作者：露西亚·穆蒂卡尼
2026年1月22日 美国东部时间晚上9:12 更新于4小时前
求职者在美国马萨诸塞州波士顿的劳动节波士顿社区招聘会与潜在雇主交谈。路透社/布莱恩·斯奈德
- 摘要
- 每周首次申请失业救济人数增加1000人，至20万
- 第三季度国内生产总值增长修正上调至4.4%
- 10月和11月消费者支出强劲增长
- 10月和11月通胀温和上升
华盛顿，1月22日（路透社） – 11月和10月美国消费者支出强劲增长，家庭加大了对各类商品和服务的购买，这可能使经济连续第三个季度保持强劲增长。
但周四发布的报告显示，经济增长的繁荣并未伴随强劲的劳动力市场。经济学家表示，唐纳德·特朗普总统的激进贸易和移民政策减少了对工人的需求和供应。企业在大力投资人工智能时，对人员配置需求不确定，抑制了招聘活动。
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由于劳动力市场陷入经济学家和政策制定者所谓的“低招聘、低解雇”状态，经济扩张由高收入家庭推动，他们增加了旅行和其他体验性活动的支出，同时企业在人工智能领域大量投入。
经济学家表示，强劲的消费者支出和稳定的劳动力市场降低了美联储下周降息的必要性。尽管11月和10月通胀温和，但这些数据可能反映了政府43天停摆造成的价格扭曲，且有迹象表明此后价格压力有所回升。
安永 – 帕台农（EY-Parthenon）高级经济学家莉迪亚·布苏尔表示：“消费者支出保持了惊人的韧性……但这种令人印象深刻的增长背后掩盖了一个更令人不安的现实。表面之下，许多家庭正面临储蓄枯竭的困境，就业机会减少和收入增长放缓带来的挑战正在削弱他们的购买力。”
美国商务部经济分析局表示，占经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出在11月增长0.5%，10月该数据同样增长0.5%。11月的增长符合经济学家预期。10月和11月的综合数据因政府停摆而延迟发布。
11月支出得到医疗保健、金融服务和保险行业以及住房和公用事业部门的支持。消费者在酒店和汽车旅馆住宿、餐厅和酒吧消费方面支出增加。服务支出在10月增长0.6%后，11月增长0.4%。
商品支出在10月增长0.3%后，11月猛增0.7%。机动车、服装鞋类、家具和其他耐用家庭设备、娱乐用品和车辆的支出增加。
汽油和其他能源商品支出激增，反映出价格上涨。经通胀调整后，消费者支出增长0.3%，与10月持平，使经济在第四季度保持更高增长路径。
经济分析局周四早些时候报告称，第三季度经济年化增长率向上修正至4.4%，为两年来最快增速。此前估计第三季度（7-9月）增长率为4.3%，第二季度为3.8%。亚特兰大联储预测第四季度（10-12月）GDP增长率为5.4%，贸易逆差缩小和商业投资也将提供贡献。
华尔街股市走高。美元对一篮子货币下跌。美国国债收益率涨跌不一。
储蓄率创三年新低
然而，消费者正在动用储蓄维持支出。11月储蓄率从10月的3.7%降至三年低点3.5%。收入在10月微增0.1%后，11月增长0.3%，但政府工资和薪金减少130亿美元，反映出9月接受延期辞职的公职人员离职。
11月工资增长0.4%，10月为0.3%。劳动力市场仍处于停滞状态。美国劳工部另一项报告显示，截至1月17日当周，各州首次申请失业救济人数增加1000人，经季节性调整后为20万。
近几周，由于年底假日季和年初季节性波动的调整困难，申请数据受到影响。申请数据涵盖了1月就业报告非农就业部分政府调查雇主的时期。
剔除季节性波动的四周移动平均申请人数在1月和12月调查周之间温和上升。12月非农就业人数增加5万人，大致符合2025年的月平均水平。
截至1月10日当周，领取失业救济金超过一周的人数（作为招聘指标）减少2.6万人，经季节性调整后为184.9万人。
所谓的持续申领失业救济人数下降部分原因是季节性调整困难，以及一些人耗尽了最多26周的福利资格。被解雇的人发现很难找到新工作，这一趋势在消费者调查中也很明显。
初步和持续申领失业救济人数
尽管10月和11月通胀有所缓和，但这是由于政府停摆给价格带来了下行偏差。政府无法收集大部分数据来编制10月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。同样，10月进口价格报告也无法获得大部分数据。
这些数据缺口也影响了11月的CPI和进口价格报告。但政府能够发布10月的生产者价格指数（PPI）报告。美联储追踪的个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数使用了CPI、PPI和进口价格报告中的部分数据计算。
经济分析局使用9月和11月的平均值计算PCE价格指数的相关组成部分。
PCE价格指数增长0.2%，与10月持平。商品价格在10月小幅下降后反弹，服务通胀放缓。截至11月的12个月内，PCE价格指数从10月的2.7%升至2.8%。
剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，PCE价格指数在10月增长0.2%后，11月同样增长0.2%。截至11月的12个月内，核心通胀从10月的2.7%升至2.8%。
12月的CPI数据显示核心PCE上月有所回升，经济学家预测涨幅高达0.4%，同比将增至3.1%。12月PCE通胀数据将于2月20日公布。
摩根士丹利首席经济学家迈克尔·加彭表示：“美联储将推迟降息，直到看到通胀压力缓解的证据。”
报道：露西亚·穆蒂卡尼；编辑：野山知津（Chizu Nomiyama）和保罗·西马奥（Paul Simao）
我们的标准：路透社信托原则。
US consumer spending rises, labor market remains in lackluster shape
2026-01-22T13:35:53.199Z / Reuters
By Lucia Mutikani
January 22, 2026 9:12 PM UTC Updated 4 hours ago
节点运行失败
Job seekers speak with potential employers at a City of Boston Neighborhood Career Fair on May Day in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., May 1, 2017. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
- Summary
- Weekly jobless claims increase 1,000 to 200,000
- Third-quarter gross domestic product growth revised up to rate of 4.4%
- Consumer spending increases strongly in October and November
- Inflation rises moderately in October and November
WASHINGTON, Jan 22 (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in November and October as households stepped up purchases of a range of goods and services, likely keeping the economy on track for a third straight quarter of strong growth.
But the boom in economic growth evident in reports on Thursday has not been accompanied by a strong labor market. Economists say President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and immigration policies have reduced the demand for and supply of workers. Businesses are uncertain of their staffing needs as they invest heavily in artificial intelligence, curbing hiring.
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With the labor market stuck in what economists and policymakers have termed a “low-hiring, low-firing” state, the economic expansion is being powered by high-income households, who are spending more on travel and other experiential activities, as well as businesses splurging on AI.
Economists said strong consumer spending and a stable labor market have reduced the need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week. While inflation was moderate in November and October, those readings likely reflected distortions caused by the 43-day shutdown of the government, and there are signs that price pressures have since picked up.
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“Consumer spending remained remarkably resilient … yet this impressive strength masks a more troubling reality,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon. “Beneath the surface, many families are grappling with depleted savings and the challenges of fewer job opportunities and slower income growth, which is eroding their purchasing power.”
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.5% in November after rising by the same margin in October, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said. The increase in November was in line with economists’ expectations. The combined October and November data was delayed by the government shutdown.
Spending in November was supported by the healthcare, financial services and insurance sectors as well as housing and utilities. Consumers also spent more on hotel and motel stays and restaurant and bar purchases. Services spending increased 0.4% after advancing 0.6% in October.
节点运行失败
Spending on goods jumped 0.7% after rising 0.3% in October. There was increased spending on motor vehicles, clothing and footwear as well as furniture and other durable household equipment, recreational goods and vehicles.
Spending on gasoline and other energy goods surged, reflecting higher prices. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 0.3%, matching the gain in October and keeping the economy on a higher growth path in the fourth quarter.
The BEA earlier on Thursday reported that the economy grew at an upwardly revised 4.4% annualized rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years. The economy was previously estimated to have grown at a 4.3% rate in the July-September quarter after expanding at a 3.8% pace in the second quarter. The Atlanta Fed is forecasting GDP will increase at a 5.4% rate in the October-December quarter, with contributions also expected from a smaller trade deficit and business investment.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed.
SAVING RATE AT A THREE-YEAR LOW
Consumers, however, are dipping into their savings to maintain spending. The saving rate fell to a three-year low of 3.5% in November from 3.7% in October. Income increased 0.3% after edging up 0.1% in October as government wages and salaries fell $13.0 billion, reflecting the departure in September of public employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer.
Wages increased 0.4% in November after gaining 0.3% in October. The labor market remains in a holding pattern. A separate report from the Labor Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000 for the week ended January 17.
Claims data have in recent weeks been clouded by challenges adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around the year-end holiday season and turn of the year. The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed employers for the nonfarm payrolls component of January’s employment report.
The four-week moving average of claims, which irons out seasonal fluctuations from the data, increased modestly between the January and December survey weeks. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 jobs in December, roughly in line with the monthly average for 2025.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.849 million during the week ended January 10, the claims report showed.
Part of the decline in the so-called continuing claims is also likely due to seasonal adjustment difficulties as well as some people exhausting their eligibility for benefits, limited to 26 weeks in most states. Those who are laid off are finding it difficult to land new jobs, a trend that is evident in surveys of consumers.
Initial and continuing jobless claims
Though inflation subsided in October and November, it was because the shutdown injected a downside bias to prices. The government was unable to collect most of the data to compile the Consumer Price Index report for October. Similarly, most data was unavailable for October’s import prices report.
These data gaps also impacted CPI and import price reports for November. But the government was able to publish the Producer Price Index report for October. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes, tracked by the U.S. central bank for its 2% target, are calculated using some of the data from the CPI, PPI and import prices reports.
The BEA used an average of September and November to calculate the relevant components for the PCE price indexes.
The PCE price index increased 0.2%, matching October’s gain. Goods prices rebounded after dipping in October, while services inflation slowed. In the 12 months through November, the PCE price index climbed 2.8% after rising 2.7% in October.
A column chart with the title ‘Monthly change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index’
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.2% after increasing by the same margin in October. In the 12 months through November, the so-called core inflation increased 2.8% after advancing by 2.7% in October.
CPI data for December have suggested core PCE picked up last month, with economists’ estimates as high as a 0.4% increase, which would translate to a year-on-year rise of 3.1%. The PCE inflation data for December will be released on February 20.
“The Fed will postpone cuts until it sees evidence of easing inflationary pressures,” said Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
A column chart with the title ‘Monthly change in core US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index’
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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